1. #1
    THE_LOCKSMITH
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    UFC on ESPN+ 38: Ortega vs. The Korean Zombie (October 17, 2020)



    ESPN+ 7:00 pm ET
    Brian Ortega vs. Chan Sung Jung
    Jessica Andrade vs. Katlyn Chookagian
    Ante Delija vs. Ciryl Gane
    Modestas Bukauskas vs. Jimmy Crute
    Thomas Almeida vs. Jonathan Martinez

    ESPN+ 4:00 pm ET
    Mateusz Gamrot vs. Guram Kutateladze
    Poliana Botelho vs. Gillian Robertson
    James Krause vs. Claudio Silva
    Yong Jin Park vs. John Phillips
    Jamie Mullarkey vs Fares Ziam
    Gadzhimurad Antigulov vs. Maxim Grishin
    Said Nurmagomedov vs. Mark Striegl


    Last edited by THE_LOCKSMITH; 10-13-20 at 02:30 PM.
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  2. #2
    frankieunits2685
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    Lets go zombie!

  3. #3
    agendaman
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    wow 7 hi priced favorites
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    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: Thrilla

  4. #4
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by agendaman View Post
    wow 7 hi priced favorites
    Juice city for sure.
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  5. #5
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Huge fan of Ciryl Gane. Think he will be UFC Heavyweight Champion one day.
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  6. #6
    Unwritten Law
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    The Korean Zombie!
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  7. #7
    JIBBBY
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    Ortega all day long at +160 odds.. Zombie no push over but at those odds you gotta try it!!!

  8. #8
    PaperTrail07
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    For sure---almost a (2) year layoff...a lot of it is how prepared he is......not saying I'm betting him lol...but I get it.
    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Ortega all day long at +160 odds.. Zombie no push over but at those odds you gotta try it!!!

  9. #9
    frankieunits2685
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Ortega all day long at +160 odds.. Zombie no push over but at those odds you gotta try it!!!
    GL Jibby, but i'll most likely be going against you in this one.

  10. #10
    hankcream
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Huge fan of Ciryl Gane. Think he will be UFC Heavyweight Champion one day.

    Hugo, how's his ground game & defense? I saw his fight with Tanner Boser and if I remember correctly it was all striking and Gane pretty much dominated. I don't like the juice for this fight for anything other than a sub win.
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  11. #11
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by hankcream View Post
    Hugo, how's his ground game & defense? I saw his fight with Tanner Boser and if I remember correctly it was all striking and Gane pretty much dominated. I don't like the juice for this fight for anything other than a sub win.
    His ground game is pretty underrated. I have a play on Gane Sub at (+550). He can win this fight anywhere. I don't typically play (-600) MLs so I'll need to get a bit creative about how I play this fight.
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  12. #12
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by PaperTrail07 View Post
    For sure---almost a (2) year layoff...a lot of it is how prepared he is......not saying I'm betting him lol...but I get it.
    I don't really factor layoffs into my capping. I'm assuming we are getting the same Ortega we've seen before until proven otherwise.
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  13. #13
    Sanity Check
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    I'm assuming we are getting the same Ortega we've seen before until proven otherwise.
    Ortega said in interviews, he's tried to change everything. Fired all his old coaches except for Rener Gracie and tried to improve in all areas.


    The polar inverse opposite of Karolina who changed everything except her coaches.
    Last edited by Sanity Check; 10-13-20 at 06:42 PM.

  14. #14
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Think Rener won't be in his corner for this one. Out with COVID I heard.
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  15. #15
    hankcream
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    His ground game is pretty underrated. I have a play on Gane Sub at (+550). He can win this fight anywhere. I don't typically play (-600) MLs so I'll need to get a bit creative about how I play this fight.
    Appreciate the input . How do you always get the best lines? The best I ca find by sub is +450
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  16. #16
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by hankcream View Post
    Appreciate the input . How do you always get the best lines? The best I ca find by sub is +450
    Have a lot of different books and am often logged in and looking at prices.
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  17. #17
    hankcream
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    Really like Jonathan Martinez at + $, but have to wait for the weigh in, his last fight against Frankie Saenz he missed weight by 5#s
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  18. #18
    PaperTrail07
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    I don't either unless the fighter is older....paycheck hunting....
    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    I don't really factor layoffs into my capping. I'm assuming we are getting the same Ortega we've seen before until proven otherwise.

  19. #19
    frankieunits2685
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    BREAKING:

    Due to contract issues, Ante Delija has been removed from his fight against Ciryl Gane and the bout has been cancelled. Krause/Silva will not be moved up to the main card.

  20. #20
    PaperTrail07
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    Quote Originally Posted by frankieunits2685 View Post
    BREAKING:

    Due to contract issues, Ante Delija has been removed from his fight against Ciryl Gane and the bout has been cancelled. Krause/Silva will not be moved up to the main card.
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  21. #21
    Unwritten Law
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    It's been confirmed that Rener won't be in Ortega's corner to console him after The Korean Zombie rips him apart!!

    https://www.espn.com/mma/story/_/id/...ung-jung-fight
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  22. #22
    hankcream
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    Since the Gane fight has been cancelled, long shot play:
    1 unit Mark Striegl by submission + 750
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  23. #23
    spurginobili
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    This is on UFC's Youtube channel.

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  24. #24
    LBfightlife
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    Can't go against Zombie here. He's improved after military layoff, matured and making a title run. The Yair KO was a fluke imo... Initially thought of fading Ortega due to Sampson-esk haircut before weigh in. Although maybe he's going full savage mode mentally.

    Ortega only likely path to victory is by submission. I have underestimated his striking before but he's just not on the level of TKZ. I believe TKZ will finish him.

    Will probably play TKZ in 1 or 2 parlays, ITD and round betting in 2-3-4 . Possible small hedge w/ Ortega by submission.

  25. #25
    Hugo de Naranja
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    I think Ortega KO is a better value hedge than Ortega Submission. Ortega is an underrated puncher and I think this fight stays standing.
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  26. #26
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Almeida vs. Martinez is apparently at 145 not 135. Worth noting.
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  27. #27
    UncleChael
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    Who we on today Hugo's? I ain't fading you. The man's stays HOT!
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  28. #28
    Sanity Check
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    Classic combat blunders of history 101

    --Underestimating the russian winter

    --Invading iraq without an exit strategy

    --Invading and occupying afghanistan making identical mistakes to russia when they tried it

    ...

    Add to list:

    --Slapping Korean Zombie's homey, when KZ goes to the bathroom ????????

    ???????

  29. #29
    LBfightlife
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    Interesting Hugo. So you think TKZ can keep Tcity off his neck or his ground game will cancel out Tcity submission threat?

    Do you see chances this fight going the distance ?

  30. #30
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by UncleChael View Post
    Who we on today Hugo's? I ain't fading you. The man's stays HOT!
    One bet I've got is Claudio Silva ML.
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  31. #31
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by LBfightlife View Post
    Interesting Hugo. So you think TKZ can keep Tcity off his neck or his ground game will cancel out Tcity submission threat?

    Do you see chances this fight going the distance ?
    I think the fight stays standing and there is more value on Ortega KO/TKO (+950) than there is on Ortega Submission (+350) at current prices.

    These prices imply a 9.5% chance of Ortega KO/TKO and a 22.2% of Ortega Submission. I think the odds of Ortega KO happening should be around 15% and Ortega submission happening should be around 20% so I think there is value on the Ortega KO prop but no value on the Ortega Submission prop.

    I think the fight is unlikely to go the distance.
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  32. #32
    209 Life
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    Chookagian has 8 inch height advantage over Andrade

  33. #33
    Sanity Check
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    4 pm ET is an early start time for UFC prelims.

    Fight Island FTW~

  34. #34
    Demonata
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    Finally have time for another ufc event

  35. #35
    PaperTrail07
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    same +125 dont understand that line at all.......also the Robertson over....1.5....ladies fight lol...
    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    One bet I've got is Claudio Silva ML.

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