[Sanity Check]

[JIBBBY]

McGregor can hit hard to the body and head, I think Cowboy is in trouble. He better shoot for a takedown often and early. Use kicks and stay out of punching range if he can.. He comes forward and fights straight up he's gonna go to sleep..

McGregor 1st round finish prop might be the call..

[LBfightlife]

McG was seeming hungrier to me in the presser. Cowboy feels like he made it now since he getting paid. I wonder how much of his goal was met just making it to the big fight rather than winning it.

Jibb-eh : Are you still planning to hedge cowboy by submission?

[JIBBBY]

McG was seeming hungrier to me in the presser. Cowboy feels like he made it now since he getting paid. I wonder how much of his goal was met just making it to the big fight rather than winning it.

Jibb-eh : Are you still planning to hedge cowboy by submission?

Yeah still hedged at those odds it's just insurance though.. Small price to pay for back up..

Pending1/18/20 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1035 Cerrone wins by submission +510* vs Any other result

[bitcoinLuke]

Thoughts on the over 1.5 on the main.....Loving the over personally....asking a lot to take someone out that quick at that weight....

IDK,man, Cerrone's chin is pretty shot these days, and Gaethje just mowed through him in less than a rd. I think its set pretty well. Figure Conor will want to get it over with quickly because the longer it goes, the better it is for Cerrone.

[bitcoinLuke]

McG was seeming hungrier to me in the presser. Cowboy feels like he made it now since he getting paid. I wonder how much of his goal was met just making it to the big fight rather than winning it.

Jibb-eh : Are you still planning to hedge cowboy by submission?

Agree. I watched the press conference, too. Seemed Cerrone was just happy to be there.

[bjpenn85]

Agree. I watched the press conference, too. Seemed Cerrone was just happy to be there.

In that case mcregor is in for some trouble, because cerrone chokes in big fights. But if cerrone is just happy being there, he feels no added pressure of a big fight, right?

So its probably the other way around if that is how you think.

Ill say when everyone believe a certain outcome will happen, often times it doesnt happen.

Look how little wrestling was a factor when Usman fought Covington?

We all believe Cerrones starting issue will be an issue in the first round, well guess what, that might not be the deciding factor, because when

everyone believes something, then its often dead wrong...

[JIBBBY]

In that case mcregor is in for some trouble, because cerrone chokes in big fights. But if cerrone is just happy being there, he feels no added pressure of a big fight, right?

So its probably the other way around if that is how you think.

Ill say when everyone believe a certain outcome will happen, often times it doesnt happen.

Look how little wrestling was a factor when Usman fought Covington?

We all believe Cerrones starting issue will be an issue in the first round, well guess what, that might not be the deciding factor, because when

everyone believes something, then its often dead wrong...

Cowboy is the big under dog going in and expected to lose.. Hmmm? Still it's all about fighting styles and will his chin and body hold up. Did Cowboy train enough to match McIrish? Hard to bet on Cowboy in this one.

Cowboy can only hope to last and wear out McNuggets and take him down in the end and choke him out like Nate Dias did.. Remember though Nate had the length, Chin and boxing to hang.. It failed also in the rematch when McLuckyCharms trained hard and got dialed in and busted up Nate..

[JIBBBY]

Prelims --

205 lbs.: Aleksa Camur vs. Justin Ledet

With a Golden Gloves background and the support of Stipe Miocic behind him, Aleksa Camur (5-0) entered his “Contender Series” bout with Fabio Cherant as a prohibitive favorite. Cherant managed to rock him early in the second round, only for Camur to come back with a flying knee for a contract-earning finish.
Three of his previous four knockouts came in the first round.
The past few years have not been kind to Justin Ledet (9-2), who wound up on the wrong end of a historically one-sided thrashing from Aleksandar Rakic to snap his three-fight Octagon win streak. He then had the misfortune of meeting a mid-rise Johnny Walker, who put away “El Blanco” with a spinning back fist in just 15 seconds.
This will be his first fight in 11 months because of injury.
The 24-year-old Camur looks the goods, but he isn’t a complete product quite yet, and Ledet could prove problematic for him. “El Blanco” has massive edges in height and reach, plus the jab to make full use of them. Unfortunately for Ledet, expecting him to fight to the best of his abilities is a bit of a pipe dream — he sleepwalked past far inferior opponents in Chase Sherman and Azunna Anyanwu, nearly losing the decision through inactivity against the latter. To make matters worse, Ledet just suffered his first-ever knockout loss, so there’s no telling where his head’s at.
Ledet at his best wins this pretty comfortably, keeping the shorter Camur on the end of his jab and neutralizing the latter’s explosive right hand. I’m done expecting Ledet’s best, though. Camur outworks a lackadaisical Ledet until a money shot hits home.
Prediction: Camur via second-round technical knockout
Related
Watch ‘Countdown’ To UFC 246 Full Video


125 lbs.: Tim Elliott vs. Askar Askarov

Tim Elliott (15-9-1) ran the table on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 24 to earn a crack at then-champ Demetrious Johnson, who survived an early rush to beat Elliott by decision. He’s alternated wins and losses since that defeat and was last seen tapping to Deiveson Figueiroa in the former’s first fight in nearly two years.
Though the taller of the two, he’ll give up one inch of reach.
Askar Askarov (10-0-1) dispatched Jose Maria Tome for the ACB Flyweight title in 2016, then defended it with submissions of Anthony Leone and Rasul Albaskhanov. A 16-month layoff followed, after which “Bullet” fought veteran Brandon Moreno to a draw in Mexico City.
He has never gone the distance in victory, submitting seven.
Get ready for some absolutely wild scrambles between these two. Elliott’s ground shenanigans are well-documented and Askarov — even if he was lucky to escape with a draw against Moreno — is smooth as hell in offbeat positions. I know predicting an exciting Elliott fight is like predicting that the sun will rise tomorrow, but trust me, he and Askarov will make something special (also something that probably won’t last too long).
Elliott’s been leaving his neck out in transition recently and that won’t fly against “The Bullet.” Askarov wraps up something unpleasant mid-scramble.
Prediction: Askarov via first-round submission
Related
Cowboy Warns Mouthy McGregor: Leave My Family Alone


135 lbs.: Brian Kelleher vs. Ode Osbourne

Brian Kelleher (19-10) followed his massive upset of Iuri Alcantara with wins in two of his next three appearances, one of which earned him “Fight of the Night” for his decision over Damian Stasiak. Things haven’t stayed quite as rosy, as he suffered stoppage losses to John Lineker and Montel Jackson his next two times out.
Injury makes this his first fight in nearly 13 months.
Three consecutive first-round finishes brought Ode Osbourne (8-2) to “Contender Series,” where he squared off with LFA veteran Armando Villareal in July. Despite ending up on his back because of a persistent takedown attack, Osbourne walked away with a contract after tapping his man with an armbar late in the first.
He has finished seven opponents as a professional, six of them in the first round.
Pitting a strong-looking prospect against someone reeling from consecutive losses generally indicates a showcase fight, but this is legitimately good matchmaking. Osbourne’s takedown defense and hands-low stance are his two biggest points of concern, and both of them could prove problematic in the face of Kelleher’s high-volume attack. Should Osbourne get too cheeky with his dynamic striking, Kelleher could very easily grind his way to an ugly victory.
Kelleher is, however, still coming off of two brutal losses and a lengthy layoff, and Osbourne has the goods to catch him before he can shake off the rust. Expect “The Jamaican Sensation” to get the early tap, either via club-and-sub or by punishing a takedown attempt.
Prediction: Osbourne via first-round submission
Related
Budweiser Unveils ‘Cowboy’ Cans


125 lbs.: Sabina Mazo vs. J.J. Aldrich

Sabina Mazo’s (7-1) LFA title and history of head kick finishes brought her some hype when she joined UFC, only for Maryna Moroz to spoil her debut back in March. Undeterred, “Colombian Queen” returned to action five months later against TUF veteran Shana Dobson, whom she dominated to get back in the win column.
Both head kick wins came in the first round.
Losses to Tatiana Suarez on TUF and Juliana Lima in her Octagon debut didn’t stop J.J. Aldrich (8-3) from winning four of her next five in the Octagon, emerging as a contender in the process. Though she proved unable to halt the rise of Maycee Barber, she bounced back with a decision over Lauren Mueller.
She stands two inches shorter than Mazo at 5’5.”
Limited finishing ability aside, this is a good clash between sleeper contenders at 125 pounds, both of them highly adept kickboxers. Mazo showed what she was capable of against Dobson and Aldrich gave Barber a tougher fight than anyone to date. They’re both plenty young and rapidly improving, too, giving the matchup all sorts of intrigue.
I favor Mazo by a smidge. She’s the taller and rangier of the two, which will make it even more difficult for Aldrich to get past her jab and kicks, and has some ground chops to fall back on if things get hairy. “Colombian Queen” potshots her way to a close, but clear, victory.
Prediction: Mazo via unanimous decision

part 2 -

115 lbs.: Roxanne Modafferi vs. Maycee Barber

Roxanne Modafferi (23-16) bounced back from her loss to Nicco Montaao in The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 26 finals with a ground-and-pound finish of Barb Honchack, finally earning her first UFC victory nearly five years after her initial exit from the promotion. “The Happy Warrior” has gone 1-2 since, though that one win saw her score a massive upset of Antonina Shevchenko in St. Petersburg.
She’ll have two inches of height and four inches of reach on “The Future.”
Maycee Barber (8-0) went undefeated (4-0) in LFA before pounding out Jamie Colleen on “Contender Series” to secure a UFC contract. She’s been similarly destructive in the Octagon itself, scoring three finishes in three fights and most recently thrashing fellow up-and-comer Gillian Robertson.
Five of her seven stoppage wins have come via (technical) knockout.
Modafferi is easy to root for and deceptively skilled, which is why it pains me to say that Barber is going to brutalize her. We’ve already seen Barber easily deal with strong top control courtesy of Gillian Robertson, and Modafferi is nowhere near the wrestler “The Savage” is. Modafferi will have to win this on the feet, either at range or in the clinch; however, considering what Barber can do in both areas, that’s heinously unlikely.
Modafferi faces gargantuan disparities in physicality and stopping power that look near-impossible to overcome. The only avenue of victory she has is through getting on top of Barber and she just doesn’t have the tools to do so. Barber mauls her at close range for another destructive finish.
Prediction: Barber via first-round technical knockout
Related
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145 lbs.: Andre Fili vs. Sodiq Yusuff

Andre Fili (20-6) spent his first eight UFC fights alternating wins and losses, starting with an impressive knockout of Jeremy Larsen and ending with a shock upset loss to then-unknown Calvin Kattar. He’s since bucked the trend with four wins in his last five, including a bonus-winning knockout of Sheymon Moraes in July (watch it).
“Touchy” stands two inches taller than the 5’9” Sodiq Yusuff (10-1) and boasts a three-inch reach advantage.
Yusuff followed up his breakout “Contender Series” win over Mike Davis by blowing up Suman Mokhtarian in one round, earning “Performance of the Night” in the process. A back-and-forth war with Sheymon Moraes followed, after which he returned to his finishing ways with a come-from-behind sparking of Gabriel Benitez.
Four of his six knockout victories have come in the first round.
Yusuff appears to have hit the point where raw power and speed aren’t enough. Indeed, he was neck-and-neck with Moraes before scoring a critical knockdown and Benitez had him badly hurt in the early going of their match. He absolutely needs to tighten up his boxing and stop just swinging for the fences with every blow, especially with the fact that his chin nearly failed him dangling over his head.
The Yusuff that fought Benitez loses this fight. Fili’s has the length and kickboxing skill to repeat the Mexican’s efforts and badly frustrate “Super Sodiq.” Then again, the same could be said of Davis, and that ended poorly for “Beast Boy.” Then again again, Fili’s only stoppage loss due to strikes was from a shin upside the head — no fist has yet felled him. It’s a toss up, is what I’m saying. Fili scrapes out a controversial points win.
Prediction: Fili via split decision
Related
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155 lbs.: Drew Dober vs. Nasrat Haqparast

Drew Dober (21-9) went from opening his UFC career 1-3 (1 NC) to winning six of his next eight, three of them by first-round knockout. The latest of them came in June, smashing heavy hitter Polo Reyes in just 67 seconds.
He’ll give up two inches of height and reach to Nasrat Haqparast (11-2).
Haqparast answered the call when Marcin Held needed a short-notice foe, dropping the Pole several times but ultimately failing to overcome his wrestling attack. He enters the cage this Saturday having won three straight, however, earning bonuses for his battles with Thibault Gouti and Joaquim Silva.
All but two of his professional wins have come by form of knockout, six of them in the first round.
In a division constantly choked with top-notch talent, Haqparast stands out with his speed and destructive punching. He’s young, bursting with potential, and fighting out of one of the sport’s most storied gyms in TriStar, but Dober is a very real test. The Elevation product is insanely durable, succumbing to strikes just once in more than 30 professional fights, and has the technical boxing to hold his own in a prolonged firefight. There’ll be no early finish for Haqparast, and if he turns out to be a frontrunner, this could go pear-shaped very quickly.
Luckily for Haqparast, his edges in speed, height and reach should all prove extremely useful. Plus, even if his shots aren’t likely to knock Dober cold, the judges can appreciate concussive force when they see it. Haqparast’s more telling blows win a hugely entertaining stand up war.
Prediction: Haqparast via unanimous decision

MMA MANIA - Patrick Stumberg

Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2019: 178-98-1

[JIBBBY]

https://www.mmamania.com/2020/1/14/2...-246-vegas-mma

[Hugo de Naranja]

@Jibby I think the writeups above were from the card a few weeks back.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Picking McGregor in the main. Think he finds Cowboy's head/body early. If not, I think Cowboy's live from R3 on.

[bjpenn85]

If you see those lines available bet still make a parlay out of all the winners and quit your job!

[JIBBBY]

@Jibby I think the writeups above were from the card a few weeks back.

Yup Hugo I wasn't paying attention with that quick copy and paste last night.. lol.. I corrected it.. Thanks for the heads up..

[PaperTrail07]

True....but Gaethje would DESTROY CM as well so that's tough to say......Cerrone is not some chump who will get starched in a round IMO---but well see....

IDK,man, Cerrone's chin is pretty shot these days, and Gaethje just mowed through him in less than a rd. I think its set pretty well. Figure Conor will want to get it over with quickly because the longer it goes, the better it is for Cerrone.

[PaperTrail07]

Does McGregor come in with ZERO rust-Does he go full speed to start? (why I like the over 1.5)............has the 100M dollar man trained enough himself? Harder to bet on CM IMO @ -370.....800@200 shit just not for me I guess....

Cowboy is the big under dog going in and expected to lose.. Hmmm? Still it's all about fighting styles and will his chin and body hold up. Did Cowboy train enough to match McIrish? Hard to bet on Cowboy in this one.

Cowboy can only hope to last and wear out McNuggets and take him down in the end and choke him out like Nate Dias did.. Remember though Nate had the length, Chin and boxing to hang.. It failed also in the rematch when McLuckyCharms trained hard and got dialed in and busted up Nate..

[Sanity Check]

Alexa Grasso weighed 121.5 lbs in a 116 lb zone.

Bout with Claudia Gadelha scrapped.

Proper 12 fight card with 12 fights is now a Proper 11.

[Thrilla]

What will jibbby have for dinner on fight night? Takeout (junk food) set favorite @ -150 vs. the field.

[JIBBBY]

What will jibbby have for dinner on fight night? Takeout (junk food) set favorite @ -150 vs. the field.

I'll have some liquor I know that much...

Still capping these prelim fights now.. Pretty solid card, to many chick fights for my liking is the only draw back.

[bitcoinLuke]

True....but Gaethje would DESTROY CM as well so that's tough to say......Cerrone is not some chump who will get starched in a round IMO---but well see....

Disagree. Gaethje is wild and easy to hit....see the Porrier and Alavrez fights...Conor is more tech and would piece him up imo. Gaethje is overrated at this point for beating top 15 Barboza and Vick, and top 10 Cerrone. When he fought two top 5 fighters, he lost both.

Cerrone has also lost every fight in his career when he fought a top 10 fighter who is a good striker. Masividal, Till, Lawler, Ferg, Edwards, Pettis, Diaz and even RDA(twice). Four of those fights he was stopped in rd 1, and two of them in rd 2.

To me, Cerrone is someone who's always a top 10 fighter who loses when he fights a top 5 guy, and beats top 10-15 guys. There's nothing wrong with that, that's just who he is.

[bitcoinLuke]

In that case mcregor is in for some trouble, because cerrone chokes in big fights. But if cerrone is just happy being there, he feels no added pressure of a big fight, right?

So its probably the other way around if that is how you think.

Ill say when everyone believe a certain outcome will happen, often times it doesnt happen.

Look how little wrestling was a factor when Usman fought Covington?

We all believe Cerrones starting issue will be an issue in the first round, well guess what, that might not be the deciding factor, because when

everyone believes something, then its often dead wrong...

I dont think he chokes under pressure, really think he just loses when he fights top 5 fighters. If you look at his record, he's steamrolled fighters in the top 10-15 range and loses to guys ranked top 5. He's good, just not good enough to be a title holder, and there's nothing wrong with that.

[JIBBBY]

Does McGregor come in with ZERO rust-Does he go full speed to start? (why I like the over 1.5)............has the 100M dollar man trained enough himself? Harder to bet on CM IMO @ -370.....800@200 shit just not for me I guess....

Ring Rust could be a factor but not likely.. McGregor has had long times off between fights in the past and he seems to always be ready to go and perform well.. I'm not buying into it Paper..

[Thrilla]

I'll have some liquor I know that much...

Still capping these prelim fights now.. Pretty solid card, to many chick fights for my liking is the only draw back.

Still capping you say? This is why the oddsmakers at Thrilla sportsbook and entertainment have set takeout as the favorite. They know how excited you are for this card and figured you have little to no time to cook tomorrow.

[JIBBBY]

Still capping you say? This is why the oddsmakers at Thrilla sportsbook and entertainment have set takeout as the favorite. They know how excited you are for this card and figured you have little to no time to cook tomorrow.

I prepare healthy leftovers from the night before and nuke it in the microwave at game time ... My dinner is set Thrilla.. Thanks for asking though..

Back to MMA stay on topic.. I'm starting to warm up to again and be friendly with you Thrilla. Take the carrot..

[JIBBBY]

Just saw the weigh in. McGregor looks dangerous and AMP'd for this fight. In shape and FIRED UP!! Good luck Cowboy..

[Unwritten Law]

McGregor by KO. He does look good at 170 and there won't be any cardio issues here.

[PaperTrail07]

Damn the over 1.5 is now -150......so for all you its done in a round guys, under 1.5 +130..........

[Demonata]

Guys the day is finally here!!!!! Are you all as excited as I am??????? Got all your food and drinks ready????? Remember don't drink and drive. Can always find an illegal stream online if you don't want to go to the bar.
Be safe and don't bet it all. Also just can enjoy the fights and not risk bets. I got some long bet parlays that probably wont hit but at least not betting a ton.

[PaperTrail07]

yessssir we are LIIIIIIIIIIIIVE

[BIGDAY]

It’s FIGHT NIGHT!!!!!!!!!!

[JIBBBY]

Damn the over 1.5 is now -150......so for all you its done in a round guys, under 1.5 +130..........

1025 McGregor wins in round 1

+225

[turbozed]

My biggest bet Dawson -160 fell through. Then Grasso/Gadelha fell through. Ended up arbing out of both of my CDF and Ledet bets for a freeroll. Kinda sucks but that's what happens when you put in bets weeks before an event.

Just glad that MMA's back for 2020 finally. Good luck fellas.

[Demonata]

Ode Osbourne could be a lock though. Impressed with watching him.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Picking McGregor in the main. Think he finds Cowboy's head/body early. If not, I think Cowboy's live from R3 on.

Agreed. I need Barber and McGregor to finish a parlay and get a little back after a brutal week. That said, I'd love to see Cerrone knock his ass out!

[PaperTrail07]

A walkoff KO headkick by Cerrone ----would just be beautiful lol...