[JerseyRobby]

Kevin Lee's personality outside the cage can be very unpalatable and RDA seems to be a great sportsman and true gentleman of the sport but after setting that aside I believe this line has great value. Lee is taking a hit because of the loss to Al Iaquinta but Al has solid takedown defense and better striking than Kevin. Even Khabib at times had trouble keeping Al down. Kevin secured a takedown and had Al's back but again Al is very strong at getting back to his feet. RDA while he has an edge on the feet he has melted against grapplers like Lee. I think Lee will secure takedowns and RDA will not be able to get back to his feet like Al was able to. Say what you want about Lee but he has very explosive takedowns, vicious ground and pound, and he's one of the best guys at finishing once he gets your back. Add to the fact that RDA has had tons of fights and might be shop worn at this time and Kevin is entering his prime I think this fight at this price is a no brainer. Lee's style is tailored to give RDA trouble. I think this will be a fight that after you watch you will be saying I can't believe it was an even line with a dominating performance by "The Motown Phenom".

[JIBBBY]

RDA could KO Lee late.. Kevin Lee's chin when he gasses is out there to be hit at times.. RDA could crack him late and drop him especially since this is a 5 round fight. I'd venture to guess RDA has the better gas tank anyways..

Kevin Lee will probably dump RDA on his back though most of the fight..

[JAKEPEAVY21]

I wonder if Lee will dance his way into the octagon again?

It didn't work so well vs Iaquinta.

This does seem like a good matchup for Lee, RDA's takedown defense has lost him numerous fights.

[JerseyRobby]

Jibby has a valid point. When in the lead both these guys have gas tanks but both fold when they aren't dictating things. I expect Lee to do that hence him winning. But yes if RDA makes a drastic improvement with his TDD he could pick Lee apart on his feet a lot like Al did. As long as RDA has fought even going back to the Clay Guida fight it's been evident this is his weakness. If he hasn't improved it by now in this stage of his career I don't see it happening.

[JIBBBY]

RDA is the better striker when the fight stays standing, that's just a fact.. RDA can kick too, Lee shoots in he could catch an up knee or up cut and get dropped late..

I'm tempted to take RDA, I don't trust Lee's chin or boxing at all..

May go Kevin Lee by decision hedged RDA by KO myself.

[Enfuego]

I always find the line "line has great value" line interesting. You read it everyday on the forums.

Let's say Lee is -130 and RDA is +115 but you think Lee is going to win the fight. Would you play RDA because of the + odds? Of course not, you'd play the fighter you think would win the fight.

I don't look at lines based on value. I play fighters I think will win the fight. If the fight is pretty even, then you might play the + odds but I don't play a fighter I think will lose a fight just because they may be on the + side.

[JIBBBY]

I always find the line "line has great value" line interesting. You read it everyday on the forums.

Let's say Lee is -130 and RDA is +115 but you think Lee is going to win the fight. Would you play RDA because of the + odds? Of course not, you'd play the fighter you think would win the fight.

I don't look at lines based on value. I play fighters I think will win the fight. If the fight is pretty even, then you might play the + odds but I don't play a fighter I think will lose a fight just because they may be on the + side.

That's why odds makers make the big bucks to set the lines for all the books.. They know what we know and maybe even more.. They will miss at times and usually on the props and not the straights..

[JerseyRobby]

Just to clarify I'd take Lee as long as he was under -175. No I would not change my pick depending on the odds. I figured the line would be -150 so to me -105 is great value.

Also that fight was pre USADA. If you watch RDA was an absolute monster from 2014-2016 and if he was still at that level now I would not bet against him. His physique and conditioning changed so much his strength and conditioning coach became famous during that run. He then lost two of his first post USADA fights and changed weight classes. I'm not going to get into if he was on PEDs but my point is he is no longer that guy or hasn't looked like it. If he looked as sharp as he did back then Lee would be toast.

[Enfuego]

Just to clarify I'd take Lee as long as he was under -175. No I would not change my pick depending on the odds. I figured the line would be -150 so to me -105 is great value.

Also that fight was pre USADA. If you watch RDA was an absolute monster from 2014-2016 and if he was still at that level now I would not bet against him. His physique and conditioning changed so much his strength and conditioning coach became famous during that run. He then lost two of his first post USADA fights and changed weight classes. I'm not going to get into if he was on PEDs but my point is he is no longer that guy or hasn't looked like it. If he looked as sharp as he did back then Lee would be toast.

Let's say Lee is -185. Do you then play RDA or pass?

[firekillex]

Let's say Lee is -185. Do you then play RDA or pass?

betting for profit is literally playing the odds lol, if you think this fight is 50/50 you take the underdog
if you think Lee wins 60% of the time and RDA is anything over +150 id take him even though i think Lee wins more times than not

https://www.oddsshark.com/tools/odds-calculator

calculator i like to use for % odds i use that has helped me

[Sanity Check]

Also that fight was pre USADA. If you watch RDA was an absolute monster from 2014-2016 and if he was still at that level now I would not bet against him. His physique and conditioning changed so much his strength and conditioning coach became famous during that run. He then lost two of his first post USADA fights and changed weight classes. I'm not going to get into if he was on PEDs but my point is he is no longer that guy or hasn't looked like it. If he looked as sharp as he did back then Lee would be toast.

USADA went into effect july 1st 2015. RDA won his fight with Cowboy Cerrone december 2015. Just by looking at RDA's record you can refute the fake news story of RDA losing every fight after USADA went into effect.

RDA using steroids is CNN/MMA journalist Jeremy Botter's claim and Jeremy Botter has been wrong on many things he's said over the years.

The "evidence" for RDA using steroids is: one of his former teammates spread that rumor. RDA used to train out of King's MMA but left for a different gym, Evolve MMA. There might have been some type of dispute there.

[Enfuego]

betting for profit is literally playing the odds lol, if you think this fight is 50/50 you take the underdog
if you think Lee wins 60% of the time and RDA is anything over +150 id take him even though i think Lee wins more times than not

https://www.oddsshark.com/tools/odds-calculator

calculator i like to use for % odds i use that has helped me

Totally disagree. If I'm convinced Lee will win the fight, I'm taking Lee and I don't care what the odds are. Taking fighters based on the odds even though you think they'll lose more times than they'll win is asinine.

[WolfTicketDealer]

Totally disagree. If I'm convinced Lee will win the fight, I'm taking Lee and I don't care what the odds are. Taking fighters based on the odds even though you think they'll lose more times than they'll win is asinine.

No, what's asinine is getting involved in sportsbetting without having at least a basic understanding of how statistics work.

[TPowell]

That's why odds makers make the big bucks to set the lines for all the books.. They know what we know and maybe even more.. They will miss at times and usually on the props and not the straights..

They are god awful Jibby. An absolute abomination to most sports oddsmakers

[TPowell]

Lee has a solid kicking game and his boxing is improving but still without much power. RDA's hands are better but Lee is the much better athlete here. If this is peak RDA from 3-4 years ago then I could see this line being more correct and maybe even something like RDA -150 but this isn't the same guy. Lee's issues are mostly mental. He grappled a lot in the Barboza fight and his cardio was solid for the whole fight basically. For some reason, he fought an awful fight against Al but still managed to win the first two rounds and just needed 1/3 to win the fight. I think Lee is the type of guy that NEEDS to lose to improve. I really dislike the guy as he's a cocky idiot but I think he gets better with each loss he takes.

[bjpenn85]

Lee has a solid kicking game and his boxing is improving but still without much power. RDA's hands are better but Lee is the much better athlete here. If this is peak RDA from 3-4 years ago then I could see this line being more correct and maybe even something like RDA -150 but this isn't the same guy. Lee's issues are mostly mental. He grappled a lot in the Barboza fight and his cardio was solid for the whole fight basically. For some reason, he fought an awful fight against Al but still managed to win the first two rounds and just needed 1/3 to win the fight. I think Lee is the type of guy that NEEDS to lose to improve. I really dislike the guy as he's a cocky idiot but I think he gets better with each loss he takes.

im starting to think the same after first favouring RDA....

[Enfuego]

No, what's asinine is getting involved in sportsbetting without having at least a basic understanding of how statistics work.

So you’ll put money on a fighter even though you don’t think he’ll win the fight because that’s what you’re saying? Like, Lee will win in your opinion but the line is too steep to play him so you must play RDA?

That’s ridiculous thinking man. It’s very simple. If you think Lee wins this fight, wager money on him to win the fight. That’s it. You’re overthinking this.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Totally disagree. If I'm convinced Lee will win the fight, I'm taking Lee and I don't care what the odds are. Taking fighters based on the odds even though you think they'll lose more times than they'll win is asinine.

So if Lee was (-300) and you gave him a 60% chance of winning, do you still take him?

[PaperTrail07]

Yeah result based shit only lasts so long......if someone is 3:1 dog and you feel they are a SLIGHT dog....maybe think other fighter wins but it will be close...yeah you can lean to the 3:1 lol..

So if Lee was (-300) and you gave him a 60% chance of winning, do you still take him?

[firekillex]

if you want to win in betting long term you have to play the % game and statistics...
just because you think somebody is going to win theres different %s you think theyll win... its MMA nobody really will win 100% of the time.. just saying you think somebody will "win" theres so many more levels to the game... if you play it so simple 99% of the time you will not be profitable long term
cheers and goodluck in your approach

[Demonata]

I really feel this fight could go either way. Should be pick em imo. I can't stand Lee at all. I probably will avoid this fight or just pick it to end itd.

[Enfuego]

So if Lee was (-300) and you gave him a 60% chance of winning, do you still take him?

At -300 he wouldn’t be at 60% so let’s discuss reality instead of something that wouldn’t happen.

[Enfuego]

if you want to win in betting long term you have to play the % game and statistics...
just because you think somebody is going to win theres different %s you think theyll win... its MMA nobody really will win 100% of the time.. just saying you think somebody will "win" theres so many more levels to the game... if you play it so simple 99% of the time you will not be profitable long term
cheers and goodluck in your approach

My approach is to put money on fighters I think will their fights. It’s a fairly simple approach.

[WolfTicketDealer]

It's really not hard to figure out what the expected outcome of an event is (whether it be a fight or otherwise) and make an appropriate bet based on that. The concept of value is not hard to grasp.

I think the Warriors will win the NBA Championship. Would I bet or parlay them at (-800)? Probably not, because I line them closer to a (-450) favorite. Just an example, but applies to literally any sport/betting situation.

[firekillex]

you just sound ignorant at this point , a ton of profitable bettors in here giving you real facts and strategy/help but you seem very hard headed... no shit you bet the fighter you think is going to win

there really is levels to this game and youre just showing a prime example.. goodluck in the future, i dont think youll last long in the MMA betting game with your approach

[Hugo de Naranja]

At -300 he wouldn’t be at 60% so let’s discuss reality instead of something that wouldn’t happen.

Seems like your just dodging the question

[Enfuego]

Seems like your just dodging the question

Dodging the question? You presented a scenario that isn't probable. Why would I comment on a scenario that doesn't happen?

[Enfuego]

you just sound ignorant at this point , a ton of profitable bettors in here giving you real facts and strategy/help but you seem very hard headed... no shit you bet the fighter you think is going to win

there really is levels to this game and youre just showing a prime example.. goodluck in the future, i dont think youll last long in the MMA betting game with your approach

A ton of profitable bettors? As in just you?

Look, I get it, gamblers like to seem smart about probabilities and statistics and I get it. But at the end of the day, you choose the side you think will provide you the best outcome you're looking for right? I don't choose a fighter I think will lose just because they are + money. That's not how I operate. If you do, great.

And you don't know anything about me. I didn't just start this yesterday.

[firekillex]

A ton of profitable bettors? As in just you?

Look, I get it, gamblers like to seem smart about probabilities and statistics and I get it. But at the end of the day, you choose the side you think will provide you the best outcome you're looking for right? I don't choose a fighter I think will lose just because they are + money. That's not how I operate. If you do, great.

And you don't know anything about me. I didn't just start this yesterday.

this will be the last time i comment since you cannot comprehend basic strategy/ the english language apparently ??
Its MMA anybody can win, if i think fighter B has a 30% chance to win the fight which implied odds would be +233 range and the odds were +300 i would bet on Fighter B due to value , long term this formula works if im good at capping because i take the value.. theres no bet that is 100% just saying oh this guy is going to win is useless... in MMA you need to bet "value" and props to win money now with oddsmakers getting slightly better

regardless you cannot teach somebody who doesnt want to be taught, theres no egos in here.. nobody is perfect and i will also take tips from people who share, you take a little from everybdoy and learn a lot ..... i could really care less in the end if you succeed or not , I was trying to help you learn a basic betting concept but youre just showing disrespect to people genuinely trying to give you some tips.. goodluck

[Wohlford]

A ton of profitable bettors? As in just you?

Look, I get it, gamblers like to seem smart about probabilities and statistics and I get it. But at the end of the day, you choose the side you think will provide you the best outcome you're looking for right? I don't choose a fighter I think will lose just because they are + money. That's not how I operate. If you do, great.

And you don't know anything about me. I didn't just start this yesterday.

I know that anyone who knows anything about probability doesn't talk about stuff like you. So I infer you know next to nothing about probability.

The price you bet (the implied probability of the line you take) is of the utmost importance. If you just try picking winners without extreme price sensitivity, your bankroll will get nuked.

Good luck simpleton.

[bjpenn85]

I think Enfuego means that he pick a winner, as long as the odds are not very disadvantageous.

Meaning we all dont simply look at the odds if the odds are marginal in our favour. I dont tear my wallet open on a 50/50 fight if i get +112 just because its + money.

My interpretation of what Enfuego means is not....oh lets just fakking forget everything about math and go for winners regardless of the odds. I dont think thats his opinion at all. Hes being a semi-dick or what Enfuego?

[Wohlford]

I think Enfuego means that he pick a winner, as long as the odds are not very disadvantageous.

Meaning we all dont simply look at the odds if the odds are marginal in our favour. I dont tear my wallet open on a 50/50 fight if i get +112 just because its + money.

My interpretation of what Enfuego means is not....oh lets just fakking forget everything about math and go for winners regardless of the odds. I dont think thats his opinion at all. Hes being a semi-dick or what Enfuego?

Your interpretation of Enfuego's comments doesn't improve anything much. The part you bolded is the most indicative of your and Enfuego's misunderstanding.

[Enfuego]

I think Enfuego means that he pick a winner, as long as the odds are not very disadvantageous.

Meaning we all dont simply look at the odds if the odds are marginal in our favour. I dont tear my wallet open on a 50/50 fight if i get +112 just because its + money.

My interpretation of what Enfuego means is not....oh lets just fakking forget everything about math and go for winners regardless of the odds. I dont think thats his opinion at all. Hes being a semi-dick or what Enfuego?

You’ve summed it perfectly. Maybe better than I did?

[Enfuego]

I know that anyone who knows anything about probability doesn't talk about stuff like you. So I infer you know next to nothing about probability.

The price you bet (the implied probability of the line you take) is of the utmost importance. If you just try picking winners without extreme price sensitivity, your bankroll will get nuked.

Good luck simpleton.

So, Fighter A is -185 and Fighter B is +135. You cap Fighter A to win the fight. You don’t like laying -185 so you’ll play Fighter B just because you’re getting + odds even though you think Fighter B loses?

That’s my point. If you don’t want to lay the -185 but you think Fighter A wins the fight, why not just leave it alone and not make a play on that particular fight?

My point is I just can’t put money on a Fighter I don’t think will win a fight.

I’m talking about -200 and lower types of lines. Of course playing a +650 is better than laying -800 etc.

Also, I’m not sure how this turned personal? I didn’t insult you two did I?

[bjpenn85]

Sometimes i think people misunderstand the math.

MMA-betting is not an exact science like taking a blood test to measure some substance in your blood. Nor like a coin toss where you can toss a coin 10.000 times and slowly see the statistic" work in your favour", if you looses that is. Your money is gone.