[Hugo de Naranja]

Good luck. The guy comes up short in big fights. A non title fight against a severely overrated Al doesn't mean much to me or him. Look at what happens when he gets close to fighting for a title OR fighting for one. Seriously, name an edge that Cerrone has over him.

Let's see
-Striking diversity
-Body striking ability
-Kicking game
-Durability to head strikes
-Anti-wrestling
But more importantly than those five advantages is that the areas where Tony usually has a huge advantage like cardio and ability to get better in the later rounds will be matched by Cowboy.

I love Tony and he could definitely win but this is no easy fight for him

[Hugo de Naranja]

Last 3 fights for both guys. Not even taking into consideration how bad of a match-up the forward pressing Ferguson wil lbe

Mike Perry LOLLLLLLLLLL
Alexander Hernandez
Al Iaquinta


Anthony Pettis
Kevin Lee
RDA

The difference is that Cowboy dominated two of those guys and finished the other one in the first round. All three of Tony's most recent opponents dropped him and/or fought him super close.

[TPowell]

Let's see
-Striking diversity
-Body striking ability
-Kicking game
-Durability to head strikes
-Anti-wrestling
But more importantly than those five advantages is that the areas where Tony usually has a huge advantage like cardio and ability to get better in the later rounds will be matched by Cowboy.

I love Tony and he could definitely win but this is no easy fight for him

Alright so lets assume that this fight doesn't hit the ground because I doubt Cerrone can take Tony down. Striking diversity? Have you watched both guys fight? I'll give you Cowboy's kicking game is probably slightly better but it won't matter. Ferguson is going to make Cerrone uncomfortable just like basically everyone that has beaten Cowboy has. He's excellent moving forward and he got to do that against Al pretty much all fight but that won't happen against Ferguson. Sure, Tony eats some shots and has been clipped before by Pettis and an underrated R1 Lando but he also BUTCHERS people with cuts and has a very judge friendly style. Cerrone is the more technical fighter here but that goes out the window against Tony and you have to be a savage and able to threaten him with power in your hands or TD's to keep him from advancing forward on you

[TPowell]

The difference is that Cowboy dominated two of those guys and finished the other one in the first round. All three of Tony's most recent opponents dropped him and/or fought him super close.

Pettis dropped him but look at the sig strikes difference in that fight and their faces even. He started slow against Lee and RDA but those were 5 rounds fights AND I'm pretty sure he was hurt in that Lee fight with a knee/ankle. He also probably stole R1 against RDA as well.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Pettis dropped him but look at the sig strikes difference in that fight and their faces even. He started slow against Lee and RDA but those were 5 rounds fights AND I'm pretty sure he was hurt in that Lee fight with a knee/ankle. He also probably stole R1 against RDA as well.

Staph Infection Kevin Lee nearly finished him in the first round. Also he definitely did not steal R1 in the RDA fight. Every judge gave it to RDA as did 96% of fans (including Tony Ferguson fans).

http://www.mmadecisions.com/decision...fael-dos-Anjos

[Hugo de Naranja]

Tony's best attribute is that he is such a dedicated and successful pressure fighter. That advantage is huge against mentally weak gassers like Anthony Pettis and Lando Vannata. Cowboy deals with pressure fighters just fine (see wins over Hernandez, Medeiros, Brown, Story, Oliveira etc.). His weakness is Southpaw Power Punchers like Robbie Lawler and Darren Till. If you look at the vast majority of Cowboy's UFC losses they come to Southpaws which Ferguson is not (though he does sometimes give Southpaw looks). Ferguson is also not known as a big one punch knockout threat.

[bjpenn85]

I think its Cerrone inside distance or bust.

Cerrone will NEVER EVER get the opportunity to be standing in the middle and dance and show off with his kicks and 1 2s or 2 3 2s which is hes fav combos. If this was a 5 round fight i would still favour Ferguson, but less.

This will be a nightmare matchup for Cerrone, since everyone already knows that the blueprint is to take out Cerrone early and regardless this is how Ferguson normally fights Cerrone will be deprived, and pressured.

But Tony may get clipped, and Cerrone may be tuffer and less of a quitter after becoming a father, which may lead to him surviving, but i just struggle to see how Cerrone can get it going. Like...do we really think Tony will give him any space to breathe and setup shots?

I dont f think so. But the line should perhaps be closer. +170 for cerrone is tempting...should probably be in the +120-130 range?

[bjpenn85]

Tony's best attribute is that he is such a dedicated and successful pressure fighter. That advantage is huge against mentally weak gassers like Anthony Pettis and Lando Vannata. Cowboy deals with pressure fighters just fine (see wins over Hernandez, Medeiros, Brown, Story, Oliveira etc.). His weakness is Southpaw Power Punchers like Robbie Lawler and Darren Till. If you look at the vast majority of Cowboy's UFC losses they come to Southpaws which Ferguson is not (though he does sometimes give Southpaw looks). Ferguson is also not known as a big one punch knockout threat.

Very good points. Playing Cerrone here?

[TPowell]

Tony's best attribute is that he is such a dedicated and successful pressure fighter. That advantage is huge against mentally weak gassers like Anthony Pettis and Lando Vannata. Cowboy deals with pressure fighters just fine (see wins over Hernandez, Medeiros, Brown, Story, Oliveira etc.). His weakness is Southpaw Power Punchers like Robbie Lawler and Darren Till. If you look at the vast majority of Cowboy's UFC losses they come to Southpaws which Ferguson is not (though he does sometimes give Southpaw looks). Ferguson is also not known as a big one punch knockout threat.

Comparing Tony to guys like Medeiros and the other Cowboy is pretty disrespectful. If I remember right, unathletic Matt Brown was 1-1 going into the 3rd with Cowboy as well. Where does RDA fall in to the mix? He crowded him early and wrecked him with volume shots. Masvidal looked like a -500 fave against him as well. It isn't just power punchers that Cowboy struggles with

[TPowell]

I think its Cerrone inside distance or bust.

Cerrone will NEVER EVER get the opportunity to be standing in the middle and dance and show off with his kicks and 1 2s or 2 3 2s which is hes fav combos. If this was a 5 round fight i would still favour Ferguson, but less.

This will be a nightmare matchup for Cerrone, since everyone already knows that the blueprint is to take out Cerrone early and regardless this is how Ferguson normally fights Cerrone will be deprived, and pressured.

But Tony may get clipped, and Cerrone may be tuffer and less of a quitter after becoming a father, which may lead to him surviving, but i just struggle to see how Cerrone can get it going. Like...do we really think Tony will give him any space to breathe and setup shots?

I dont f think so. But the line should perhaps be closer. +170 for cerrone is tempting...should probably be in the +120-130 range?

You made the right points there but how likely is Cerrone to clip him with a big enough shot to finish him over 3 rounds? I'd say sub 30% which puts him around +250 at best. My worry here would be the big shot landing for Cerrone early and him somehow getting a 10-8 and the cards getting very tight but I think he'll be alright here against a guy like Cerrone early. Cerrone may not be the SUPER slow starter in R1 he was before but he's still nowhere near his best in R1 and Tony's pressure should result in him winning R1

[Hugo de Naranja]

Comparing Tony to guys like Medeiros and the other Cowboy is pretty disrespectful. If I remember right, unathletic Matt Brown was 1-1 going into the 3rd with Cowboy as well. Where does RDA fall in to the mix? He crowded him early and wrecked him with volume shots. Masvidal looked like a -500 fave against him as well. It isn't just power punchers that Cowboy struggles with

Wasn’t comparing Medeiros to Ferguson in quality just in the fact that he is a pressure fighter.

[Hugo de Naranja]

In his last five fights how many times has Tony won R1? You might be better served live betting him

[TPowell]

In his last five fights how many times has Tony won R1? You might be better served live betting him

I'll probably save some money to do that as well but want to be on board for a possible R1 finish

[bjpenn85]

In his last five fights how many times has Tony won R1? You might be better served live betting him

I agree, we can sit here and talk back and forth, but the fight can go many ways. No one really knows and this fight has too many unknowns imo so even experienced and good bettors like us, know that we shouldnt really bet these fight. Its a crazy fight where predicting the outcome is up in the air.

I think as you said, this will be a subject for livebetting when the fight begins to settle, hopefully after round 1, if it ever go that far...

Case closed imo.

[bjpenn85]

You made the right points there but how likely is Cerrone to clip him with a big enough shot to finish him over 3 rounds? I'd say sub 30% which puts him around +250 at best. My worry here would be the big shot landing for Cerrone early and him somehow getting a 10-8 and the cards getting very tight but I think he'll be alright here against a guy like Cerrone early. Cerrone may not be the SUPER slow starter in R1 he was before but he's still nowhere near his best in R1 and Tony's pressure should result in him winning R1

I actually prefer to bet charles oliveira at -300 then getting cerrone at +150 when i think about it.

[TPowell]

I actually prefer to bet charles oliveira at -300 then getting cerrone at +150 when i think about it.

I do as well. My first lean was to Oliveira by a wide margin but I need to look at it more. My opening line was like -400 or so. I know the first fight was close but Lentz can't really put Chuckie in any danger anywhere IMO

[bjpenn85]

I do as well. My first lean was to Oliveira by a wide margin but I need to look at it more. My opening line was like -400 or so. I know the first fight was close but Lentz can't really put Chuckie in any danger anywhere IMO

i put down 5 units without even hesitating. They fought twice already and oliveira won both times, i dont care about that knee, that fight was going south for Lentz as well.

Now, 5 years later, Do Bronx is way better, and Lentz has meanwhile acquired.........no fakking skills. i think he will finish him in round 1 pretty easily, but im not willing to bet inside distance, i much rather go large for a easy victory ML wise.

While youre at it, can you check out Megan Anderson / Spencer? i think this is a major screw up from the bookies. i cap this fight at -250 and not -130, be gun quick, this may be a line which drops like a sack of potatoes in a couple of days, alternatively im just dead wrong.

[turbozed]

i put down 5 units without even hesitating. They fought twice already and oliveira won both times, i dont care about that knee, that fight was going south for Lentz as well.

Now, 5 years later, Do Bronx is way better, and Lentz has meanwhile acquired.........no fakking skills. i think he will finish him in round 1 pretty easily, but im not willing to bet inside distance, i much rather go large for a easy victory ML wise.

While youre at it, can you check out Megan Anderson / Spencer? i think this is a major screw up from the bookies. i cap this fight at -250 and not -130, be gun quick, this may be a line which drops like a sack of potatoes in a couple of days, alternatively im just dead wrong.

Just took a look at tape on this and I agree Anderson should be a heavy favorite here. Spencer is absolutely terrible for an undefeated BJJ black belt, barely outgrappling 0-0 girls in Invicta. She's going to be at a severe strength and athleticism disadvantage here, and will have very little to no success getting Anderson to the mat. She's not even half as threatening as Holm was grappling. And Megan will come into this fight with a year of improvements and knowing exactly what Spencer can do (which isn't much) instead of getting surprised by Holly's mid-fight gameplan change. I got a few units on Anderson now and I expect the line to get wider in case I feel the need to buy out. May do that and hit an ITD prop later.

[bjpenn85]

Just took a look at tape on this and I agree Anderson should be a heavy favorite here. Spencer is absolutely terrible for an undefeated BJJ black belt, barely outgrappling 0-0 girls in Invicta. She's going to be at a severe strength and athleticism disadvantage here, and will have very little to no success getting Anderson to the mat. She's not even half as threatening as Holm was grappling. And Megan will come into this fight with a year of improvements and knowing exactly what Spencer can do (which isn't much) instead of getting surprised by Holly's mid-fight gameplan change. I got a few units on Anderson now and I expect the line to get wider in case I feel the need to buy out. May do that and hit an ITD prop later.

This is my thought exactly. I do have a bad track record at predicting fights at -130/-120 line. Im ofte super sure that there is a large discrepancy in skills, but then i loose. Aldo is a very good example, much better imo, still finds a fakking way to loose.

If i a bet any fighter at -200 to -400 they always cash. So i dont know, i have 0 faith in my own capabilities at -130. +150 lines i cash almost with a 100% margin. I barely cant remember loosing with any underdog round +150 in whole 2019...were talkin maybe 2-3 fighters at max. While all fav at -130 has lost, categorically. The one exception is Rob Font against Sergio Pettis.

So im going 2 units on Megan Anderson, and see how things go, like you...

[TPowell]

I made that Anderson fight close to a pickem actually but noted that the line would probably be higher for Megan. I'm shocked that its this close. I don't think Megan is an awful play at close to -110 or so but her weakness is definitely on the mat

[TPowell]

Lines dropped last night and I got some decent ones


Gus -235 over Smith
Bevon Lewis -155 over Darren Stewart
Grasso +155 over Karolina
Fishgold +105 and -145 over Makwan
Angela Hill -105 and -125 over Yan (Hill is +135 now though)