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UFC on ESPN+ 7: Overeem vs. Oleinik (April 20, 2019)
ESPN+ 1:00 pm ET
Alistar Overeem vs Aleksei Oleinik
Islam Makhachev vs Arman vs Tsarukyan
Marcelo Golm vs Sergei Palovich
Devin Clark vs Ivan Shtyrkov
Roxanne Modafferi vs Antonina Shevchenko
Alen Amedovski vs Krzysztof Jotko
ESPN+ 10:00 am ET
Movsar Evloev vs Seung Woo Choi
Sultan Aliev vs Keita Nakamura
Teemu Packalen vs Alexander Yakovlev
Shamil Abdurakhimov vs Marcin Tybura
Gadzhimurad Antigulov vs Michal Oleksiejczuk
Rafael Fiziev vs Magomed Mustafaev
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Overeem opponent switch helps him big time here tbh... stylistically this is a great matchup for him... Overeem doesnt really get subbed and he should have a big striking advantage here
I agreeOriginally Posted by firekillex
Event Background
The event will mark the promotion's first visit to Saint Petersburg and the second in Russia, after UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik in September 2018.[2]
A heavyweight bout between former Bellator Heavyweight Champion Alexander Volkov and the 2010 K-1 World Grand Prix Champion and former Strikeforce Heavyweight Champion Alistair Overeem was planned to serve as the event headliner.[3] However, Volkov pulled out of the bout due to health issues. He was replaced by Alexey Oleinik.[4]
Emil Weber Meek was briefly connected to a welterweight bout agaisnt Sultan Aliev at the event. However, Meek was withdrawn from the card for an undisclosed reason and was replaced by Keita Nakamura.[5]
Promotional newcomer Roman Dolidze was briefly linked to a bout with Gadzhimurad Antigulov at the event.[6] However, he was replaced just days later for undisclosed reasons by Michal Oleksiejczuk.[7]
Promotional newcomer Roman Kopylov was scheduled to make his debut against Krzysztof Jotko at the event.[8] However, Kopylov pulled out of the bout on March 22 citing injury and was replaced by Alen Amedovski.[9]
Muin Gaurov was scheduled to face Movsar Evloev at the event. However, it was reported on March 24 that Gaurov is still contracted with ONE Championship, thus his contract with UFC was annulled. Evloev will instead face newcomer Seung Woo Choi.[10]
Abdul-Kerim Edilov was scheduled to face Devin Clark at the event.[11] However, Edilov's removal from the card for undisclosed reasons was announced on March 25 and he was replaced by Ivan Shtyrkov.[12]
Teemu Packalén was scheduled to face Alexander Yakovlev at the event.[13] However, Packalén was removed from the card in early April for undisclosed reasons and was replaced by promotional newcomer Alex da Silva Coelho.[14]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_Fi...em_vs._Oleinik
Early card. Gonna be eating pancakes While watching the fights. haha
UFC compulsively dilutes cards because it can't help but put on 506323 per year now.
Don't get me wrong, I know a lot of the guys on the undercard can go, but this is not the way to keep eyes on the product on ESPN. New fans will get fatigued quickly and disinterested by the lack of trash-talk.
Oleinik will probably submit Overeem just like he did with Mark Hunt.
Overeem has been submitted once in 61 MMA fights.. highly doubt it
Oleinik has trained with overeem in the past, he told Ariel Helwani in a recent interview, "he was very good on the ground, in fact, i was never able to submit him" Oleinik said.
I dont think it will happen, but Oleinik may KO Overeem out, also not very probable, but i guess everything can happen. Bad Matchup for Oleinik this is.
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So this event got next.. Didn't cap it yet... Will begin tomorrow..
Quick glance, leaning Reem by KO too.. Solid post above^^
This is all that is up on the board now. KO prop odds won't be much better unfortunately either.....
1009 Overeem wins inside distance -175
No value, steep as a mf, its handicap for me or no bet.So this event got next.. Didn't cap it yet... Will begin tomorrow..
Quick glance, leaning Reem by KO too.. Solid post above^^
No value, steep as a mf, its handicap for me or no bet.
Cant really put -235 for Overeem at this point in his career either. I mean, will he steamroll Oleinik, or at least win a clear 30-27 absolutely, but the price doesnt trigger me. If i can get -130 for the handicap, ok now were talking.
This is all that is up on the board now. KO prop odds won't be much better unfortunately either..
1009 Overeem wins inside distance -175
Cant really put -235 for Overeem at this point in his career either. I mean, will he steamroll Oleinik, or at least win a clear 30-27 absolutely, but the price doesnt trigger me. If i can get -130 for the handicap, ok now were talking.
Jotko -172? I think he should be a bigger favorite.
-300 i think. Whoever sat the line looked at the potential for Jotko to be KOed, and he might be, but that doesnt mean one should look past all other factors that may come into play in an mma fight. But whoever sat the line thought this through like an amateur, well, bet accordingly gents.
Fiziev +125
Tsarukyan +285
Evloev -290
Think I'm going with those. Couple nice underdogs and a little heavy favorite.
Or maybe not bet Tsarukyan. I'm not sure about that one.
Last edited by Teem; 04-17-19 at 12:00 PM.
Terrible comparison though.
Hunt fight was rigged. Haven't seen someone so eagerly giving his back to get subbed. So obvious rig job.
comparing Overeems grappling defense to Hunts is just rookie status
and any main event is 5 rounds , this wont be a 3 rounder BJ
Last time i bet on overeem was against fabricio werdum and i thought he lost but somehow won.
Is Antigulov a play at +180? His ground skill and pressure could work here....
MMA MANIA Prelim write ups -
265 lbs.: Marcin Tybura vs. Shamil Abdurakhimov
Marcin Tybura (17-4) — the former M-1 Heavyweight champion — won three straight after an unsuccessful Octagon debut, including a head kick knockout of Victor Pesta that secured the Polish veteran a spot in UFC highlight reels for years to come. He came up short in his first main event against Fabricio Werdum and suffered one of Derrick Lewis’ patented shock comebacks, but got back on track in July 2018 with a decision over Stefan Struve.
“Tybur” will have two inches of reach on Shamil Abdurakhimov (19-4).
Despite an upset loss to Timothy Johnson in his UFC debut, “Abrek” found himself in a main event three fights later, succumbing to a late surge from the aforementioned Lewis. He’s since bounced back with an 84-second knockout of Chase Sherman and a decision over the faded Andrel Arlovski.
He has scored eight professional wins by form of knockout, though just one since 2011.
This fight is going to be very, very bad. Where most Heavyweights either dazzle with early finishes or empty their gas tanks trying, these guys take a third option and just kinda cruise for 15-25 minutes as needed. They can still finish people, being huge and all, but they’re in no hurry to do so.
Abdurakhimov is the greater offender, throwing 37 strikes in four rounds against Derrick Lewis while landing just 15, but he’s also, unfortunately, the sharper striker. He thrives against sedate kickboxers and generally has solid takedown defense while his gas tank holds up, which makes Tybura’s path to victory a murky one. Were this five rounds, Abdurakhimov’s cardio issues would be enough to have me leaning Tybura. As is, I say “Abrek” wins an agonizingly slow striking battle via narrow decision.
Prediction: Abdurakhimov via split decision
Related
Up Next! Slugfest In St. Petersburg!
205 lbs.: Gadzhimurad Antigulov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
The berserker approach of Gadzhimurad Antigulov (20-5) earned him two UFC submissions in a combined 3:28 and a “Performance of the Night” bonus on top of that. Injury then kept him out of action for 14 months, after which he lost a wild slugfest with Ion Cutelaba to snap a 14-fight win streak.
Seventeen of his 19 stoppage wins have come in the first round.
Michal Oleksiejczuk (13-2) survived an early onslaught from Khalil Rountree to win an upset decision, only for a failed United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA) test to overturn the result. Following his suspension, he returned to the cage in February, laying out Gian Villante with a bonus-winning body shot just 94 seconds into their fight.
Poland’s “Lord” is unbeaten in his last 11 fights, scoring eight knockouts along the way.
An Antigulov fight will go one of only two ways: either he scores an immediate takedown and locks up a submission within three minutes or he gasses himself out trying. Cutelaba — who boasts an insane gas tank and strong takedown defense — managed to survive the frenzy and smash him with punches. I’m not convinced Oleksiejczuk can do the same.
It’s rare to have the potential outcomes be so binary and so utterly dependent on one aspect of a fighter’s game, namely his takedown defense, but here we are. Antigulov’s sprint is not a style that will ever win him a title, but against someone without the tools to handle it, it’s damn effective. He wrangles the Pole to the mat in the opening seconds and goes ham on his neck until he gets the tap.
Prediction: Antigulov via first-round submission
155 lbs.: Magomed Mustafaev vs. Rafael Fiziev
Magomed Mustafaev’s (13-3) upset technical knockout of Abubakar Nurmagomedov made him a hot commodity when he entered UFC, and he lived up to that hype with stoppages of Piotr Hallmann and Joe Proctor. Though he landed some gnarly body kicks on Kevin Lee, his next time out, he ultimately went to sleep from a rear naked choke late in the second round.
Multiple injuries make this his first fight in 29 months.
The latest monster out of Tiger Muay Thai, Rafael Fiziev (6-0) amassed hundreds of amateur Muay Thai bouts and nearly 50 professional fights alongside his professional mixed martial arts (MMA) record. His time in the cage has seen him score five first-round finishes and mild viral fame for his slick defense. He was originally slated to appear on “Contender Series” last year before running into the same **** issues that plague teammate Mairbek Taisumov.
This could easily be “Fight of the Night,” an incredible match up between two ferocious young knockout artists who’ve never seen the third round in 21 combined fights. I will be astounded if this isn’t a knockdown, drag-out slugfest.
Mustafaev’s struggles have historically come against takedown specialists, which bodes well on paper, but the stylistic match up looks rough for him. Fiziev thrives when opponents get overaggressive and his crisper punches look like an excellent answer to Mustafaev’s big swings, especially since the latter’s timing may be off after such a huge layoff. Mustafaev would be wise to lean on his submission skills, but his willingness to slug it out looks to be his undoing. Fiziev finds the mark with a dynamite right hand as Mustafaev attempts to brawl his way into the pocket.
Prediction: Fiziev via first-round knockout
145 lbs.: Movsar Evloev vs. Seung Woo Choi
Movsar Evloev (10-0) has spent the entirety of his career in the M-1 promotion, claiming its undisputed Bantamweight title in 2017 with a decision over Pavel Vitruk. He went on to submit Sergey Morozov and knockout Rafael Dias in his two title defenses.
His seven stoppage wins include four by rear-naked choke.
South Korea’s Seung Choi (7-1) racked up five victories, including three by knockout, before falling to countryman Jae Woong Kim in just 36 seconds. He went on to score a 93-second knockout in his next bout and starch Kim shortly thereafter to reclaim the TFC Featherweight title.
He steps in for Muin Gafarov, who ran into contract issues with One FC, on one month’s notice.
Evloev has sky-high potential thanks to his downright beautiful grappling, but like fellow top prospect Petr Yan, he’s got a dangerous Korean puncher to deal with early in his Octagon career. Though Choi has a few bad habits on the feet, he’s got some real thump in his hands and some sneaky elbows to go along with them.
Those won’t be all that useful once Evloev plants him on his back, though, and Choi’s aggression leaves him open to both Evloev’s underrated power and his excellent chain wrestling. Choi’s edge on the feet isn’t significant enough to make up for the huge disparity on the ground, and I don’t anticipate it taking Evloev long to find his way to Choi’s back and put on the squeeze.
Prediction: Evloev via first-round submission
170 lbs.: Sultan Aliev vs. Keita Nakamura
Russia’s Sultan Aliev (14-3) has fought just three times since joining UFC in 2015, pulling out of three separate bouts because of injuries. He’s 1-2 in the Octagon, most recently suffering some gruesome eye swelling against Warlley Alves in May 2018.
Ten of his professional victories have come via (technical) knockout.
Keita Nakamura (34-9-2) returned to UFC after seven years away back in 2015 and has since alternated wins and losses, putting his overall Octagon record at 4-6. His current run includes a bonus-winning comeback submission of Li Jingliang and upsets over Kyle Noke and Alex Morono.
All but two of his 17 professional submissions have come by rear-naked choke.
Have I mentioned that I hate picking fights that will be determined exclusively by takedown defense? Because I hate picking fights that will be determined exclusively by takedown defense. Aliev is weirdly terrible on the feet despite a ton of (technical) knockout finishes, leaving him at the mercy of Nakamura’s decent boxing, but all Aliev needs to do is hit a single takedown a round.
Nakamura’s a slight favorite at the moment and this is probably just my brain clinging to that to break a deadlock, but his superior striking and submission skills have me leaning his way. Aliev starts strong, but his inability to generate offense from on top will allow “K-Taro” to offset the control time with submission attempts and punches.
Prediction: Nakamura via unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Alexander Yakovlev vs. Alex da Silva
Alexander Yakovlev (24-9-1)punched his ticket to the Octagon with an upset of Paul Daley to cap off an 8-1-1 run in 2013. Things haven’t quite panned out since for the part-time rapper, as he’s gone just 2-4 in UFC.
This will be his first fight in 29 months.
Alex da Silva (20-1) — who turned 23 years old in February — has seen the judges just once as a professional, racking up 13 (technical) knockouts and seven submissions. Following a narrow loss to Jakub Kowalewicz in Germany, “Leko” came back to score two finishes in a combined four minutes.
He replaces the injured Teemu Packalen on three weeks’ notice.
First off: da Silva’s record is padded to Hell, as is standard for Astra Fight Team members, but he’s a terrific young talent with skills on both the feet and the mat. Though his takedown defense isn’t great, which would be a red flag against the grinding Yakovlev, the Russian has been out of action for so long and is so outgunned in the striking that I’m leaning toward the Brazilian.
Yakovlev can certainly win this fight if he gets his takedowns going — da Silva’s got some nice sweeps and submissions, but they’re not enough to win him a fight off of his back. Further, Yakovlev has an excellent chin that has kept him TKO-free for 15 years. I just see the speed, athleticism and striking variety of da Silva being too much for a man 10 years his elder. In short, da Silva scrambles out of a few bad spots to chew up Yakovlev at range.
Prediction: da Silva via unanimous decision
Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2019: 47-26
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2027 Antigulov wins by submission +425
hate the fact the write up has it as well LOL.....
Guy is 47-26 with his picks this year,, the write ups shouldn't curse I don't think..
Is calling for the sub..I'm gonna try it for a benny.
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Don't forget 90% are -300+ favs LOL...Guy is 47-26 with his picks this year,, the write ups shouldn't curse I don't think..
Is calling for the sub..
This is true lol.. Still a win is a win
LOL.....AINT NO PAYING JUICE WHEN YOU JUST COLLECT
This is true lol.. Still a win is a win
I see reasons to back Antigulov like the rest of you guys. Olek is not the physical beast that Cutelaba is, and Cutelaba had to work very hard in the early going to stay on his feet and climb back up when taken down.
Has anyone seen any Olek fight moments that showed you he definitely will struggle to defend those early TDs?
Gas tank is no question in favor of Olek, it’s just a question of whether he has enough to survive the early going or not. Going back at least 5 fights on him I don’t see anyone who ever would have tested his TDD and sub d the way Antigulov will so I feel like it’s just a bit of guesswork.
Two bets I have played so far:
Tsarukyan +310, 1.88u
Golm +195, 1.06u
Haven’t done any official capping of the main event, but I always underestimate Oleinik and I feel like I could do it again. Overeem KO just seems too easy.
Oleinik dropped an interview saying he trained with Overeem 4 years ago thats why theyre acting all cool
and he said he literally couldnt beat Overeem anywhere, couldnt sub him or even come close
Didn’t take me long - Added:
Antigulov +165, risk 1.45u
This is a main event fight so no chance of a 30-27. Also would be shocking if handicap hits (-130) since Overeem ITD is currently (-185) and handicap is inclusive of an ITD victory so it would have to be lined wider.
I hope Oliynik KOs him just because it would be hilarious. Bad style matchup though as you say.
I like all three of these. Let's get it Teem!
A lot of people do. He is Heavyweight Dan Kelly.
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How do we feel about FDGTD in Mustafaev/Fiziev at -215? According to tapology mustafaev has been to 1 decision in 2012 in 16 fights and Fiziev never in 6 fights.
According to Sherdog that decision for Mustafaev never happened. Other than the fight in question, neither guy has ever even seen a round 3 as a professional in MMA. So between the two they’ve either never been out of rd 2 in 20 combined fights, or have 1 decision in 21 combined fights (5%). Either way seems unlikely this one sees the cards.
The factors that make you worried is both guys seem to have strong chins, and Mustafaev COULD use his wrestling.
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