1. 04-20-19 06:42 AM #71
    bjpenn85
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    Quote Originally Posted by BELM0NT View Post
    I have had a lot experience with lines just like this. It means public is on Fiziez, and its gone to the point were the value is gone, just my opinion, gl either way
    We will know in a couple of hours. If Fiziev gets taken down right of the bat and submitted, its pretty hilarious, and just go to show how little statistics actually mean in mma. I mean its a theory i have, it might go straight to hell like any other...
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  2. 04-20-19 06:47 AM #72
    BELM0NT
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    Im just trying to help, I dont think theres a right or wrong answer here. Just from my own account of dog to fav lines. The ones that hit the most hover around value of plus money or even. Fiziez is -135 currently on bovoda. Value is on the other guy in such a close pickem fight. BOL BJPENN
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  3. 04-20-19 06:54 AM #73
    bjpenn85
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    Quote Originally Posted by BELM0NT View Post
    Im just trying to help, I dont think theres a right or wrong answer here. Just from my own account of dog to fav lines. The ones that hit the most hover around value of plus money or even. Fiziez is -135 currently on bovoda. Value is on the other guy in such a close pickem fight. BOL BJPENN
    Might be, have you collected data on all pickems and run a test to see if its true? Its become a mantra in our community, but are you sure, its in fact true, run the data, lets say 6 month, or a year?
    Thats the sort of thing im diving into now, so its hard with so many factor, but maybe the numbers can tell us something new that we didnt know.

    Good luck man!
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  4. 04-20-19 06:59 AM #74
    BELM0NT
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    I've chased the line enough times and lost to know, thats why waiting at least 30 minutes before fights to get best read of the line. The fight were Montel Jackson lost against Ricky Simon was a prime example. Theres another before that but its been awhile, Sorry fixed fighter, its early, lol
    Last edited by BELM0NT; 04-20-19 at 07:05 AM.
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  5. 04-20-19 07:26 AM #75
    Shagdogy
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjpenn85 View Post
    We will know in a couple of hours. If Fiziev gets taken down right of the bat and submitted, its pretty hilarious, and just go to show how little statistics actually mean in mma. I mean its a theory i have, it might go straight to hell like any other...
    Statistics are helpful but I could never use them as the whole picture. When looking at TD and TDD% for example you can’t just look at the numbers you have to look at the specific ways ppl are landing TDs and defending TDs.

    You gotta let your eye do some of the work I think.
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  6. 04-20-19 07:43 AM #76
    JAKEPEAVY21
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    glad to see Hugo is on Amedovski. I'm surprised a lot of you guys are on Jotko? Yes, he has the experience edge and has fought better competition but he has also lost 3 in a row and 2 straight KO's. Meanwhile, Amedovski is 8-0 and all wins are via KO. Given that, Jotko seems like a very risky pick.
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  7. 04-20-19 08:37 AM #77
    Demonata
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    its is so early but lets make that money!!!!!!!
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  8. 04-20-19 08:41 AM #78
    JAKEPEAVY21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Demonata View Post
    its is so early but lets make that money!!!!!!!
    love these early UFC cards!!
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  9. 04-20-19 08:49 AM #79
    Demonata
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    Quote Originally Posted by JAKEPEAVY21 View Post
    love these early UFC cards!!
    Watching ufc while eating pancakes lol
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  10. 04-20-19 08:52 AM #80
    bjpenn85
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
    Statistics are helpful but I could never use them as the whole picture. When looking at TD and TDD% for example you can’t just look at the numbers you have to look at the specific ways ppl are landing TDs and defending TDs.

    You gotta let your eye do some of the work I think.

    First and foremost yes. Nothing beats a trained eye in mma betting.
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  11. 04-20-19 08:52 AM #81
    BELM0NT
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    passing on 1st fight. gl penn
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  12. 04-20-19 09:06 AM #82
    spurginobili
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    Just started looking at this card

    First up, both guys have finished every fight they've been in, so I guess under 1.5 +132
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  13. 04-20-19 09:24 AM #83
    JAKEPEAVY21
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    wow what a KO by Mustafaev!

    same spinning kick he hit earlier in the fight
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  14. 04-20-19 09:25 AM #84
    bjpenn85
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    jesus fakking christ mustafaev! forget my theory...what a KO
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  15. 04-20-19 09:26 AM #85
    PaperTrail07
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    Smooooth win-----I mean what #s can you add into an algorithm there LOL.....not hating just saying.....how do you put #s on that lol...
    Quote Originally Posted by JAKEPEAVY21 View Post
    wow what a KO by Mustafaev!

    same spinning kick he hit earlier in the fight
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  16. 04-20-19 09:27 AM #86
    HurlSweatPants
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    That first one touched his chin, surprised he didn't go out on that. Good early win on the under, BOL fellas.
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  17. 04-20-19 09:28 AM #87
    Demonata
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    Michal Oleksiejczuk time!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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  18. 04-20-19 09:29 AM #88
    PaperTrail07
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    On over 1.5 and the dog next fight -lets hope that takedown is there ,,,,,,
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  19. 04-20-19 09:31 AM #89
    JAKEPEAVY21
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    ok no action on these next few fights good time to go to breakfast and the grocery store
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  20. 04-20-19 09:42 AM #90
    THE_LOCKSMITH
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  21. 04-20-19 09:43 AM #91
    PaperTrail07
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    WOW.....I knew he was aggressive but JESUS lol 0-2
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  22. 04-20-19 09:46 AM #92
    Demonata
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    That was too easy. I love free money. Knocked his bitch ass out!!!!!!1
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  23. 04-20-19 09:58 AM #93
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by JAKEPEAVY21 View Post
    glad to see Hugo is on Amedovski. I'm surprised a lot of you guys are on Jotko? Yes, he has the experience edge and has fought better competition but he has also lost 3 in a row and 2 straight KO's. Meanwhile, Amedovski is 8-0 and all wins are via KO. Given that, Jotko seems like a very risky pick.
    Jotko could win but I've got to see it to believe it. Seems like his confidence and chin might be shot.
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  24. 04-20-19 10:01 AM #94
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by Demonata View Post
    That was too easy. I love free money. Knocked his bitch ass out!!!!!!1
    Nice hit Demon! Nice to see a big win for Poland.
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  25. 04-20-19 10:01 AM #95
    Demonata
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Jotko could win but I've got to see it to believe it. Seems like his confidence and chin might be shot.
    Hugo you see that last fight? That was badass!!!!!!
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  26. 04-20-19 10:02 AM #96
    Demonata
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    betting small on tybura just .01 bitcoin which is like $53.
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  27. 04-20-19 10:02 AM #97
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Added:
    Evloev -3.5 (-180) 2.7u to win 2u
    Oliynik+Overeem Under 1.5 (-130) 1.3u to win 1u
    Oliynik ITD (+300) .75u

    Added Hedge(s):
    Pavlovich Decision (+284) 1u
    Da Silva Submission (+450) .5u
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  28. 04-20-19 10:03 AM #98
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by Demonata View Post
    Hugo you see that last fight? That was badass!!!!!!
    Yeah that was sweet! Olek's chin and technical counterpunching were the difference.
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  29. 04-20-19 10:03 AM #99
    Demonata
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Nice hit Demon! Nice to see a big win for Poland.
    Thanks man. I love his striking! I think reason i hit it is it's too early to get drunk and do dumb bets haha.
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  30. 04-20-19 10:07 AM #100
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Added Hedge:
    Choi KO/TKO (+525) 1u
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  31. 04-20-19 10:19 AM #101
    Demonata
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    tybura you bum!!!!!!!!
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  32. 04-20-19 10:21 AM #102
    spurginobili
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    That works - had won't go distance

    Looked like a decision for sure after rd 1
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  33. 04-20-19 10:22 AM #103
    JAKEPEAVY21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Jotko could win but I've got to see it to believe it. Seems like his confidence and chin might be shot.
    Yep agreed...I wouldn't lay chalk in this scenario though.
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  34. 04-20-19 10:40 AM #104
    BELM0NT
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    Aliev next
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  35. 04-20-19 10:46 AM #105
    Demonata
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    lets gooooooooooooooooooooo. thanks hugo for the pick. I totally tailed you on it. Thanks buddy.
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