[Dim mak]

Im hoping for a Dominick Cruz kind of return. I'm thinking Cain will be just fine when he returns. I hope!

[PaperTrail07]

I re-watched Morales- Bermudez, i am in a disagreement with myself here. I dont think its possible for Lopez to avoid the ground game during those 15 minutes, much like the Oliveira vs David Teymur. Bermudez def is too savy here i think. He actually dominated Morales for more or less the first 5 minutes which i didnt remember.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Im hoping for a Dominick Cruz kind of return. I'm thinking Cain will be just fine when he returns. I hope!

It’s totally possible that he is I’m just not convinced that he’ll be the same with all the persistent knee and back injuries.

[firekillex]

i remember when Cain came back against Travis Browne and looked like a fckin animal, of course its another injury and even longer layoff .. Ngannou has gigantic power and can KO anybody in the world if the shot lands but Cain is the better fighter anything under -180 im on Cain tbh.... never go large on a big HW fight like this though when either guy can be KOD with any grazing shot

[Hugo de Naranja]

i remember when Cain came back against Travis Browne and looked like a fckin animal, of course its another injury and even longer layoff .. Ngannou has gigantic power and can KO anybody in the world if the shot lands but Cain is the better fighter anything under -180 im on Cain tbh.... never go large on a big HW fight like this though when either guy can be KOD with any grazing shot

Travis Browne is GARBAGE. Cain's last legit win was JDS III in October 2013. Line is closing in so I do understand those taking shots on Cain at better odds. I personally have 2.5u on Ngannou ML at (+202) net.

[PaperTrail07]

Browne was CONFIRMED garbage when he lost to the Black Beast IMO......completely went full retard and lost ....

Travis Browne is GARBAGE. Cain's last legit win was JDS III in October 2013. Line is closing in so I do understand those taking shots on Cain at better odds. I personally have 2.5u on Ngannou ML at (+202) net.

[firekillex]

i thought Browne was a legit darkhorse of the division until he moved with the worst coach in MMA history, he had a long reach and super athletic with huge heart but after he moved with edmon his career went downhill super super quick and his gameplans were just next level shiet.... IMO cain is the best heavyweight skill wise in history but we dont know which cain well see in this fight.... Stipe gave the blueprint to beat Ngannou lets see if Cain can follow it

[HurlSweatPants]

Agree on the Fili line, that was the one that stood out the most initially.

In my dreams, Cain ducks under a FN hammer and reproduces his hook that KOd Nog. In reality, the most likely way that Cain wins is winning the clinch, using heavy ground strikes, and exposing Ngannous cardio. Stipe made the blueprint, will Cain follow it? That is the real question.

Stoned minds think alike Fire.

[PaperTrail07]

MINUTE 2 LOL...For me this just all depends how prepared Cain is....lot of guessing in this fight

I think Cain is definitely the more skilled fighter and he has a big cardio advantage. However, Ngannou is an absolute beast in Round 1 and facing a power puncher like that is not the welcome that you want after multiple years off. Cain hasn’t had a solid win for over five years (a bum like Travis Browne isn’t a solid win). I think Ngannou puts him in the fire early and gets him out of there. If it hits R2, Cain’s chances of winning increase significantly.

[bjpenn85]

Anyone have looked at Albu vs Whitmire? I think Albu will win a 29-28, not superconfident, but she can potentially muscle Whitmire, she can outstrike her, but she can also be outstruck, but the forward pressure and pace will likely be a bit too much for Whitmire. Albu hasnt fought in a while which may raise questions. I just feel that Kailin Curran is better than Whitmire, and since Albu for at least two clear rounds beat her, i think that she should also beat Whitmire. Albu doesnt care if shes getting outlanded, and that is a issue, she really doesnt care, she just march forward and overpower her opponent, thats her style. Chin is usually up in the air, but solid, Curran landed jab stright right and a legkick that landed flush, but albu didnt care much, so that taking into consideration i think that potential for KO is pretty slim since Whitmire have only won 3 fights all going to decision and has seriously 0 power and fighting nobodies. I think -130 in that aspect is fair, but Albus defence on the feet, and carelessness may have her loosing a split, but i do think she will win at least 2 rounds clearly, and maybe drop the last round as she can get a little tired.

I mean betting on Albu is ...its only for the sake of fun, and because this card is just stripped for anything that resemble a clear favourite with minor chances of upsets.

Any thoughts?

[The HOFF]

I think Cain is definitely the more skilled fighter and he has a big cardio advantage. However, Ngannou is an absolute beast in Round 1 and facing a power puncher like that is not the welcome that you want after multiple years off. Cain hasn’t had a solid win for over five years (a bum like Travis Browne isn’t a solid win). I think Ngannou puts him in the fire early and gets him out of there. If it hits R2, Cain’s chances of winning increase significantly.

Yeah, I think the play is to live bet the shit out of Velasquez if it his round 2.

[The HOFF]

Anyone else liking Lentz +150? Really waiting for the handicapped line of +3.5. He'll take at least one round with his grind it out style and might possibly catch a guillotine that he routinely goes for.

[Shagdogy]

Anyone have looked at Albu vs Whitmire? I think Albu will win a 29-28, not superconfident, but she can potentially muscle Whitmire, she can outstrike her, but she can also be outstruck, but the forward pressure and pace will likely be a bit too much for Whitmire. Albu hasnt fought in a while which may raise questions. I just feel that Kailin Curran is better than Whitmire, and since Albu for at least two clear rounds beat her, i think that she should also beat Whitmire. Albu doesnt care if shes getting outlanded, and that is a issue, she really doesnt care, she just march forward and overpower her opponent, thats her style. Chin is usually up in the air, but solid, Curran landed jab stright right and a legkick that landed flush, but albu didnt care much, so that taking into consideration i think that potential for KO is pretty slim since Whitmire have only won 3 fights all going to decision and has seriously 0 power and fighting nobodies. I think -130 in that aspect is fair, but Albus defence on the feet, and carelessness may have her loosing a split, but i do think she will win at least 2 rounds clearly, and maybe drop the last round as she can get a little tired.

I mean betting on Albu is ...its only for the sake of fun, and because this card is just stripped for anything that resemble a clear favourite with minor chances of upsets.

Any thoughts?

I looked into this one and when it was -200 Albu I didn't see any value but now that there has been a big move I think maybe there's a little Albu value (but I need to try to look into if there's some reason for the big movement). Albu definitely hits harder and has the durability to get into a firefight with a girl like Whitmire who is still green and not all that dangerous on the feet. Even if Whitmire is landing more shots from range, I think it will be Albu landing the bigger shots and swaying the judges along the way.

As for the ground game, we haven't seen Albu on her back unless she chooses to be on her back. She has stout TDD and she's very physically strong so when she needs she can just get up. Cardio is a definite issue but that's where I can see her winning the first two and losing the 3rd. Doubt she gets finished though. The X factor here is if the level of competition has played into our perceptions a bit. Whitmire has clearly faced better fighters. You say Curran is a step up from Whitmire, but Curran has the worst record in UFC history if I'm not mistaken. I'll give you that she has moments in a lot of her fights but that girl just knows how to lose.

Nonetheless, I favor Albu and line her around -135. She's sitting at -126 for my book right now, so I'm still not quite pulling the trigger on her. Like most fights on this card, I favor the favorite, but not quite by enough to want to bet them.

Now Andrea Lee on the other hand... I think she is a substantially better fighter than AES. That's one I'd look closer at to use in parlays and maaaaaybe even straight.

[Shagdogy]

I re-watched Morales- Bermudez, i am in a disagreement with myself here. I dont think its possible for Lopez to avoid the ground game during those 15 minutes, much like the Oliveira vs David Teymur. Bermudez def is too savy here i think. He actually dominated Morales for more or less the first 5 minutes which i didnt remember.

If Lopez fights with the aggression that he brought in round 1 against Morales, he will end up clinched up for sure. But if he fights the way he fought rounds 2 and 3, then I see Bermudez having a hard time getting him on the mat. I don't think it's fair at all to compare this matchup to Oliveira vs. Teymur. Oliveira came out and just walked Teymur straight down and even outstruck him to pretty much everyone's surprise. It's pretty clear from watching Bermudez that he does not have nearly striking that we saw in that matchup. Even accounting for Lopez not being on that level either, Bermudez has never demonstrated the potential IMO to come out and put on a striking clinic. If this fight is at range I comfortably pick Benito.

As for TDs... Bermudez does best when he works trips from clinch. He has to get into that clinch first though. When he shoots from the outside he often takes long range, low percentage shots without setting them up and gets stuffed or avoided with ease. Against Morales he was losing the striking in round 2 and had failed on at least two pretty terrible shot attempts before he managed to snatch the submission from standing.

And the clinch... Bermudez got controlled for literally minutes at a time in the clinch against Saul Almeida. Seems like he rests there and doesn't have a lot of urgency. If he can't wrap his arm over top the head to attack guillotine then he just gets pinned with his back to the cage.

And then chin, durability, and grit... Bermudez was rocked multiple times in the Morales fight and started to look even a little flustered in rd 2 when he would shoot and bail immediately and butt flop or try to pull guard. Meanwhile Benito proved that he can take some damage without wilting.

Talking a lot about line value on here and I just don't see any way that Bermudez deserves the line that he has. I actually favor Benito slightly in this matchup and think that he definitely has a very playable amount of line value, even now as the line has dropped around +170.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Lopez is certainly a trendy dog pick

[Thrilla]

UFC heavyweight Francis Ngannou joins Ariel Helwani’s MMA Show to discuss his training camp ahead of fighting Cain Velasquez on February 17 on ESPN. “The Predator” says he wants to fight the best version of Velasquez, and that he is a different version of himself, with confidence and a better understanding of the fight business. Ngannou explains how he is helping kids in Cameroon.

[bjpenn85]

If Lopez fights with the aggression that he brought in round 1 against Morales, he will end up clinched up for sure. But if he fights the way he fought rounds 2 and 3, then I see Bermudez having a hard time getting him on the mat. I don't think it's fair at all to compare this matchup to Oliveira vs. Teymur. Oliveira came out and just walked Teymur straight down and even outstruck him to pretty much everyone's surprise. It's pretty clear from watching Bermudez that he does not have nearly striking that we saw in that matchup. Even accounting for Lopez not being on that level either, Bermudez has never demonstrated the potential IMO to come out and put on a striking clinic. If this fight is at range I comfortably pick Benito.

As for TDs... Bermudez does best when he works trips from clinch. He has to get into that clinch first though. When he shoots from the outside he often takes long range, low percentage shots without setting them up and gets stuffed or avoided with ease. Against Morales he was losing the striking in round 2 and had failed on at least two pretty terrible shot attempts before he managed to snatch the submission from standing.

And the clinch... Bermudez got controlled for literally minutes at a time in the clinch against Saul Almeida. Seems like he rests there and doesn't have a lot of urgency. If he can't wrap his arm over top the head to attack guillotine then he just gets pinned with his back to the cage.

And then chin, durability, and grit... Bermudez was rocked multiple times in the Morales fight and started to look even a little flustered in rd 2 when he would shoot and bail immediately and butt flop or try to pull guard. Meanwhile Benito proved that he can take some damage without wilting.

Talking a lot about line value on here and I just don't see any way that Bermudez deserves the line that he has. I actually favor Benito slightly in this matchup and think that he definitely has a very playable amount of line value, even now as the line has dropped around +170.

Im not meaning to compare Oliveira and Teymur literally. Sure...Were not talking -200 line here, that line is obviously not worth it. Clinch is enough for it to be dangerous for Lopez here. Thats standing guillotine that Bermudez pulled off against Morales is seriously not a takedown, is nothing, and Bermudez pulled off a win by 20 cm of Morales nodding. That is actually real magic. That is creating something out of nothing. A clinch from Lopez is like a christmas gift and he will likely get a chance or two to finish the fight. But Lopez seems like a fighter who might come in prepared. One can only play Bermudez inside distance or sub. So value is is on Lopez, and thats why i have also picked him.

[bjpenn85]

I looked into this one and when it was -200 Albu I didn't see any value but now that there has been a big move I think maybe there's a little Albu value (but I need to try to look into if there's some reason for the big movement). Albu definitely hits harder and has the durability to get into a firefight with a girl like Whitmire who is still green and not all that dangerous on the feet. Even if Whitmire is landing more shots from range, I think it will be Albu landing the bigger shots and swaying the judges along the way.

As for the ground game, we haven't seen Albu on her back unless she chooses to be on her back. She has stout TDD and she's very physically strong so when she needs she can just get up. Cardio is a definite issue but that's where I can see her winning the first two and losing the 3rd. Doubt she gets finished though. The X factor here is if the level of competition has played into our perceptions a bit. Whitmire has clearly faced better fighters. You say Curran is a step up from Whitmire, but Curran has the worst record in UFC history if I'm not mistaken. I'll give you that she has moments in a lot of her fights but that girl just knows how to lose.

Nonetheless, I favor Albu and line her around -135. She's sitting at -126 for my book right now, so I'm still not quite pulling the trigger on her. Like most fights on this card, I favor the favorite, but not quite by enough to want to bet them.

Now Andrea Lee on the other hand... I think she is a substantially better fighter than AES. That's one I'd look closer at to use in parlays and maaaaaybe even straight.

Yes, i can see why your hesitant, there are maybe to many downsides with that Albu bet. Andrea Lee seems very slow and plodding, how does she handle AES grappling?

[Shagdogy]

Yes, i can see why your hesitant, there are maybe to many downsides with that Albu bet. Andrea Lee seems very slow and plodding, how does she handle AES grappling?

Wow. I have Lee as clearly the faster striker of the two. She’s admittedly not especially fast for the weight class but AES has moved down so she’s already dealing with a speed shift as we’ve seen recently with matchups like TJ vs. Cejudo where the bigger fighter moving down isn’t quite ready for the pace and speed that they’ll face. I feel like AES is the slow one.

As for the grappling, I’m not a fan of the head/arm throw but it’s just a part of women’s MMA still for now. Lee is pretty strong in the clinch and very active. I don’t worry she’s just going to get bullied to the mat again and again. And AES’s shots from the outside are not good at all. She tends to shoot but stops her drive as soon as she hits the legs, if she’s even able to get in deep on them. Yeah she got Rawlings down at the end of rd 1 for a second but that shot wasn’t great it just caught Rawlings off guard. She tried to land the same TD at end of rd 2 and it was stuffed very easily.

[Unwritten Law]

Cain is getting KTFO.

[bjpenn85]

Wow. I have Lee as clearly the faster striker of the two. She’s admittedly not especially fast for the weight class but AES has moved down so she’s already dealing with a speed shift as we’ve seen recently with matchups like TJ vs. Cejudo where the bigger fighter moving down isn’t quite ready for the pace and speed that they’ll face. I feel like AES is the slow one.


As for the grappling, I’m not a fan of the head/arm throw but it’s just a part of women’s MMA still for now. Lee is pretty strong in the clinch and very active. I don’t worry she’s just going to get bullied to the mat again and again. And AES’s shots from the outside are not good at all. She tends to shoot but stops her drive as soon as she hits the legs, if she’s even able to get in deep on them. Yeah she got Rawlings down at the end of rd 1 for a second but that shot wasn’t great it just caught Rawlings off guard. She tried to land the same TD at end of rd 2 and it was stuffed very easily.

Okey, so they both have a fight in common AES won more clearly, due to wrestling first and foremost and if that cancels, ok but is Andrea Lees striking so much better than it will make a significant enough difference to win on the scorecards? I need to watch more tape, but i dont get a good read i feel like...its just ok you can strike a bit, but...so what? this card fokking sucks, i dont feel i see anything anywhere.

I start gain more and more confidence in Calvillo here, it may be a bias since i really want a favourite to be a lock, so take it as you wish, but the more i see C Casey fight, the more disappointment it creates. She needs to take steroids and get tdd, because shes very close to being an ok fighter, but i dont think she can withstand takedowns, and on the feet, shes a little slow and easy to read, i doubt she can convince judges enough if this goes the decision as calvillo will have more dominant flurrys on the ground and be in top control for longer periods of time. But a last leg....im looking for that one....to be continued

[bjpenn85]

Wow. I have Lee as clearly the faster striker of the two. She’s admittedly not especially fast for the weight class but AES has moved down so she’s already dealing with a speed shift as we’ve seen recently with matchups like TJ vs. Cejudo where the bigger fighter moving down isn’t quite ready for the pace and speed that they’ll face. I feel like AES is the slow one.

But...i think youre playing with fire tbh. Andrea Lee may be better, but i dont think is as evident as you say. AES didnt look thaaaaaat bad against Keitlin Vieira sooo.. if she meet someone who is tad a bit worse than Kaitlin Vieira ...how much worse can she look against andre lea. I

As for the grappling, I’m not a fan of the head/arm throw but it’s just a part of women’s MMA still for now. Lee is pretty strong in the clinch and very active. I don’t worry she’s just going to get bullied to the mat again and again. And AES’s shots from the outside are not good at all. She tends to shoot but stops her drive as soon as she hits the legs, if she’s even able to get in deep on them. Yeah she got Rawlings down at the end of rd 1 for a second but that shot wasn’t great it just caught Rawlings off guard. She tried to land the same TD at end of rd 2 and it was stuffed very easily.

But...i think youre playing with fire tbh. Andrea Lee may be better, but i dont think is as evident as you say. AES didnt look thaaaaaat bad against Keitlin Vieira sooo.. if she meet someone who is tad a bit worse than Kaitlin Vieira ...how much worse can she look against andre lea. I think Andrea Lee sucks, i think AES sucks, Andre lee has better striking, but she still is bad as a fighter...she doesnt win hardcore...pot shots bla bla...its not bettable, but youre analyzing in terms of technical skills is correct, but it will be dirty and it wont matter imo. The advantage is simply to little to make a difference. Our treshold should be a bit higher to make a bet. Im not betting Andrea Lee.

[PaperTrail07]

Lopez is NOT near the skills of BM.....the line went from -200 to -195 LOL...I will be impressed if he can avoid the TD the whole time...
You think this TDD is that good.....

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...F&&FORM=VRDGAR

Im not meaning to compare Oliveira and Teymur literally. Sure...Were not talking -200 line here, that line is obviously not worth it. Clinch is enough for it to be dangerous for Lopez here. Thats standing guillotine that Bermudez pulled off against Morales is seriously not a takedown, is nothing, and Bermudez pulled off a win by 20 cm of Morales nodding. That is actually real magic. That is creating something out of nothing. A clinch from Lopez is like a christmas gift and he will likely get a chance or two to finish the fight. But Lopez seems like a fighter who might come in prepared. One can only play Bermudez inside distance or sub. So value is is on Lopez, and thats why i have also picked him.

[bjpenn85]

Lopez is NOT near the skills of BM.....the line went from -200 to -195 LOL...I will be impressed if he can avoid the TD the whole time...
You think this TDD is that good.....



https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...F&&FORM=VRDGAR

You have clearly not read what i have written over the past few days so i dont bother to repeat it all. But i agree mostly with what you said except that Manny is not really well rounded, he is a specialist, and i think we only disagree a little bit when it comes to his striking, he has getting dropped a couple of times, and he doesnt look very fluid on the feet. I can assure you my friend, if this is staying on the feet, Lopez wins. I am not sold on Lopez ability to stand upright, 1.round will be interesting, but Manny will be a little bit slower, the takedowns a bit more sloppy as the fight goes, and if it goes into the 3.round, it doesnt look too good for Manny Bermudez. But this could easily be a 1.round sub win for the bermudaz triangle

[PaperTrail07]

I read everything you posted.....it's gone from

THE VALUE IS ON LOPEZ and that's why I have also picked him(post 52)

.......to

COULD EASILY be MB round 1 sub(post 59)

....LOL......you've basically said who knows anything can happen....I am saying MB is more skilled and there is no reason to think he wont land a TD VS Lopez....Lopez was taken down by less savvy attempts in the video I posted and is not so great on the feet that he is putting people away with KO's....a split dec and a decision win vs a guy MB put to sleep.....I am just wondering why everytone thinks lopez will avoid the TD and WHY people feel there is value at less that 2:1....

You have clearly not read what i have written over the past few days so i dont bother to repeat it all. But i agree mostly with what you said except that Manny is not really well rounded, he is a specialist, and i think we only disagree a little bit when it comes to his striking, he has getting dropped a couple of times, and he doesnt look very fluid on the feet. I can assure you my friend, if this is staying on the feet, Lopez wins. I am not sold on Lopez ability to stand upright, 1.round will be interesting, but Manny will be a little bit slower, the takedowns a bit more sloppy as the fight goes, and if it goes into the 3.round, it doesnt look too good for Manny Bermudez. But this could easily be a 1.round sub win for the bermudaz triangle

[PaperTrail07]

Was Lopez very good at TDD and was just trying to put a show on for contender series?? Ill admit I have not watched his fights VS bums before the contender series but I am just not sold on it.....does his boxing look good...sure....decent ground game? enh.....don't think so but could be wrong....looked average at best...

[bjpenn85]

Was Lopez very good at TDD and was just trying to put a show on for contender series?? Ill admit I have not watched his fights VS bums before the contender series but I am just not sold on it.....does his boxing look good...sure....decent ground game? enh.....don't think so but could be wrong....looked average at best...

Both fighter have under developed games. None of these fighters will ever be champions either. So both are not huge talents per say.

Am i impressed of Bermudez striking? penetrate no. am i impressed of Lopez ground game? absolutely no!

I have said that the value is on Lopez, because i got him at +200 so that was value...its not 100% sure that lopez cant defend any sub attempt, i mean Morales did a pretty good job for a long fokking time.

Grant? Is that really who were going to go off by, or Morales? Flawed fighters. When bermudez submits high caliber guys, as easy as cans, ok then we can have a discussion about talent.

You said i went from value is on lopez to he could easily be submitted. <--- super fokked up interpretation, completely wrong way of looking at it.

And heres comes my answer to your criticism: I will criticise any fighter, even fighters i have money on. Its not like if i place money on Lopez im willing to lie about his potential defensive capabilities like i was fokking married to him?

I will continue two have several thoughts in my head at the same time, it means i see value with Lopez at +200, but i recognize that he can easily be submitted in round 1.

He will get taken down, its up to lopez to not getting submitted, morales did manage that for 1,5 rounds, it will be very interesting if Lopez can complete 2 whole rounds

[Shagdogy]

Lopez is NOT near the skills of BM.....the line went from -200 to -195 LOL...I will be impressed if he can avoid the TD the whole time...
You think this TDD is that good.....

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...F&&FORM=VRDGAR

You can’t judge the TDD of Lopez in a vacuum. You also have to judge the quality of Bermudez’s TDs. And then from there the skill is looking for nuance and small details that you think will make the difference. Peterson got Lopez backed to the cage, lowered his level, got in on the hips of Lopez and then pulled his legs out. This is not how Bermudez generally works for TDs. More often he works trips from a high clinch. The question in this fight is less about the TD and TDD and more about the quality of Bermudez’s entrances from range versus Lopez’s ability or desire to keep space. This is not the same as the Peterson matchup.

[JIBBBY]

Mania write ups - Prelims



135 lbs.: Renan Barao vs. Luke Sanders

It is now more than 28 months since Renan Barao (34-7) won a fight, and more than five years since he won more than one in a row. He is just 1-5 in his last six and was last seen losing a split decision to newcomer Andre Ewell in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
He has submitted 15 opponents and knocked out eight others.
Luke Sanders (12-3) hit the ground running in UFC with a “Performance of the Night” submission of Maximo Blanco, only to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory against Iuri Alcantara and Andre Soukhamthath, he rebounded with a decision over Patrick Williams, only to tap to a Rani Yahya heel hook four months later.
Six of his eight stoppage wins have come by form of knockout.
This is a “loser goes home” fight if I’ve ever seen one. Barao hasn’t even looked good in victory since thrashing Urijah Faber in 2014 and Sanders, though clearly talented, just can’t stop shooting himself in the foot. The difference is that Sanders is still a strong fighter when he’s at his best, while Barao doesn’t seem capable of reaching even a fraction of the heights he once cruised at.
Weird part? Sanders is actually the older of the two.
Barao’s ironclad takedown defense and “meh” offense wrestling means we’re in for a striking battle, one which favors the more powerful and far less weathered Sanders. Volume and a good sprawl carry “Cool Hand Luke” to a decision victory.
Prediction: Sanders via unanimous decision
Related
Uncanny Resemblance!


115 lbs.: Aleksandra Albu vs. Emily Whitmire (3-2)

Aleksandra Albu (3-0) signed with UFC in 2013, only to pull out from her debut against Julie Kedzie with an injury. “Stitch” ultimately made her first Octagon appearance two years later, submitting Izabela Badurek, then took a 27-month layoff before winning a decision over Kailin Curran.
This will be her first fight in 1.5 years.
Emily Whitmire (3-2) tapped Christina Marks in the opening round of TUF 26, only to succumb to Roxanne Modafferi’s ground-and-pound in the quarterfinals. TUF teammate Gillian Robertson caught her in an armbar at the finale, but Whitmire successfully upset Jamie Moyle in her next appearance.
“Spitfire” stands three inches taller than Albu at 5’5.”
There are only two types of information my brain retains: pointless pop culture minutiae and fights. Even then, I can barely remember anything about Albu’s UFC efforts. I had to look up tape on someone with two fights in the Octagon and I am, frankly, disappointed in myself.
Albu’s strength is impressive, but her rock-bottom fight IQ is worrying. Worse, she compensates for technical deficiencies with athleticism, which does a number on her gas tank. Whitmire’s superior technique and cardio should allow her to control things on the feet, and if Albu pulls guard or tries to force a throw, Whitmire’s submissions are a real threat. Whitmire turns away an early surge to tap an exhausted Albu late.
Prediction: Whitmire via third-round submission


135 lbs.: Jimmie Rivera vs. Aljamain Sterling

Following a split decision loss in his second professional fight, Jimmie Rivera (22-2) put together one of the more impressive mixed martial arts (MMA) win streaks, racking up 20 consecutive victories over the course of nine years. His run came to an end last June against Marlon Moraes, but “El Terror” returned to the win column with a decision over John Dodson three months later.
He’ll give up three inches of height and reach to the “Funk Master.”
The perfect (4-0) UFC start for Aljamain Sterling (16-3) gave way to a 2-3 slump, including two split decision losses and a horrific knee from Marlon Moraes. He got back on track with a decision over Brett Johns, then picked up one of the 2018 “Submissions of the Year” by hitting a Suloev stretch on Cody Stamann.
His seven professional submission wins include six via choke.
The name of the game here is “length.” As dangerous as Rivera is with his hands, Sterling’s awkward kickboxing belies quality range management, and any attempt from Rivera to bully his way inside leaves him open to Sterling’s lethal wrestling. As intimidating as Rivera’s 100 percent UFC takedown defense is, the best wrestler he’s had to deal with is Urijah Faber.
Sterling is a whole different animal, and once it hits the mat, “Funk Master” is as good as anyone at 135 pounds.
Rivera’s lack of reach will keep him from establishing his boxing, while his willingness to scrap opens the door for Sterling to get in on his hips. From there, it’s just a matter of time.
Prediction: Sterling via second-round submission
Related
Rogan Wants ‘Terrible’ Hardy Fed To Ngannou


135 lbs.: Manny Bermudez vs. Benito Lopez

Manny Bermudez (13-0) earned his ninth submission in 10 fights in his Octagon debut, dispatching Albert Morales via guillotine. He went back to his titular choke against Davey Grant five months later, earning “Submission of the Night” in the process.
“The Bermudez Triangle” will give up two inches of reach to “Golden Boy.”
Benito Lopez (9-0) dazzled early against Steven Peterson on “Contender Series,” but his foe’s relentlessness forced him to settle for a split decision. He made his Octagon debut four months later with a competitive decision over Albert Morales.
This will be his first fight since Dec. 2017.
Lopez is a damn fun fighter, treating flying knees the way the average fighter treats jabs. What he isn’t is terribly efficient — he slowed down badly against both Peterson and Morales after excellent starts. He’s just 24 years old and had a long layoff with which to mature, but the fact that he pushed an unsustainable pace against Morales despite the scare against Peterson suggests that it’s just the way he is.
Bermudez is simply too good a grappler for Lopez to be this reckless against. “Golden Boy” has excellent timing with his knees, which should make Bermudez think twice about shooting, but it’s all moot once Lopez’s gas tank dwindles. Bermudez survives an early onslaught to drag a flagging Lopez to the floor and choke him out.
Prediction: Bermudez via second-round submission
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125 lbs.: Andrea Lee vs. Ashlee Evans-Smith

Andrea Lee (9-2) put together a four-fight win streak, including victories in Invicta and LFA, before joining UFC in 2017. When her planned debut with Kalinda Faria fell through because of United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA) guidelines, she debuted the subsequent May with a “Fight of the Night” decision over Veronica Macedo.
She replaces the injured Lauren Murphy on two months’ notice.
Ashlee Evans-Smith (6-3) went 2-3 as a UFC Bantamweight before making the drop to 125 pounds in April 2018. In her divisional debut, she took on current bare-knuckle standout Bec Rawlings and held her own on the feet en route to a unanimous decision win.
She is two inches taller than Lee, but will give up 2.5 inches of reach.
Lee has traditionally struggled against skilled takedown artists and Evans-Smith is a wrestler by trade, but the complicating factor is that Evans-Smith’s wrestling hasn’t translated to MMA. She’s landed an abysmal 27 percent of her UFC takedowns and hasn’t made up for it with volume, attempting just over one every 15 minutes.
That leaves her at the mercy of Lee’s versatile kickboxing, which looks a fair bit more effective than Evans-Smith’s rough boxing. Assuming my faith in Lee’s still-developing defensive wrestling isn’t misplaced, she pieces up a relentless Evans-Smith in a fun battle.
Prediction: Lee via unanimous decision
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155 lbs.: Scott Holtzman vs. Nik Lentz

Scott Holtzman (12-2) got off to an appropriately quick start in the Octagon with a dominant victory over Tony Christodoulou, only to lose two of his next three bouts. He’s gone undefeated (3-0) since a decision loss to Josh Emmett, most recently knocking out Alan Patrick at UFC 229 in a decent-sized upset.
“Hot Sauce” will have an inch of height and reach on “The Carny.”
Nik Lentz (29-9-2) pulled off one of 2017’s wilder upsets by choking out Will Brooks in Sydney, Australia, earning “Performance of the Night” in the process. He lost his next bout to David Teymur, then rebounded with a knockout of Gray Maynard four months later.
He owns 11 wins by submission, though just three via his favored guillotine.
Holtzman went from giving up eight takedowns to Josh Emmett to out-grappling a very capable grinder in Alan Patrick last time out. I’d still be leery of picking him against a dedicated wrestler, but he should be able to handle a slowing, shopworn Lentz. “The Carny” turns 35 this year, and though he’s actually younger than Holtzman, he has quite a few more miles. The wrestling prowess isn’t enough to make up for the physical disparity.
Lentz could absolutely still turn this into a miserable slog if he puts his mind to it. Considering his decline and Holtzman’s rapid improvement, though, I expect the latter to out-slug him on the feet and stay off the mat for long enough to take the decision.
Prediction: Holtzman via unanimous decision



Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2019: 15-5

[JIBBBY]

https://www.mmamania.com/2019/2/13/1...nix-sportsbook

[Hugo de Naranja]

Lopez slowed down hard against Morales. Lopez' Flying Knees are legit by I had the fight 29-28 Morales, as did most Media Members.

http://www.mmadecisions.com/decision...Albert-Morales

[PaperTrail07]

clearly but what it showed me was a lack of experience....what Peterson did was not amazing work.....and it worked.....it just showed me that Lopez has a very high chance of being exposed......every fight and fighter is different...Lopez has the reach/size, but MB is years ahead skills wise IMO....

You can’t judge the TDD of Lopez in a vacuum. You also have to judge the quality of Bermudez’s TDs. And then from there the skill is looking for nuance and small details that you think will make the difference. Peterson got Lopez backed to the cage, lowered his level, got in on the hips of Lopez and then pulled his legs out. This is not how Bermudez generally works for TDs. More often he works trips from a high clinch. The question in this fight is less about the TD and TDD and more about the quality of Bermudez’s entrances from range versus Lopez’s ability or desire to keep space. This is not the same as the Peterson matchup.

[Shagdogy]

clearly but what it showed me was a lack of experience....what Peterson did was not amazing work.....and it worked.....it just showed me that Lopez has a very high chance of being exposed......every fight and fighter is different...Lopez has the reach/size, but MB is years ahead skills wise IMO....

Years ahead with ONE skill maybe. Not everywhere IMO. I’m on Benito. Clearly the value side I think. We’ll see.

[135iVert]

Does anyone have the odds for Francis by KO/TKO, Francis ITD, and Francis by Round 1 Stoppage? I am trying to hedge Cain.

[PaperTrail07]

It okay to differ on opinion GL SHAG.......the old posters would have turned this into a WAR lol.....GL to everyone...Very true....MB is a specialist no doubt but I feel he is on the higher end....Lopez.....seen people w better everything and don't feel he is near elite anywhere....no saying he has to to KO a guy but well see...

Years ahead with ONE skill maybe. Not everywhere IMO. I’m on Benito. Clearly the value side I think. We’ll see.