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UFC Fight Night 138 betting in progress
Loss, what a highway robbery of a decision- still, better to sweat out a decision on underdog than fave
Ayari +150 (BOV) / No Decision +250 (WH) Dutched ($59-$42 ratio or simply 6-4, respectively)
(They each semi-hedge + possibly middle the other. If one hits, you'll NET @ ½Unit, if both @ 2 UNITS, plus original bet)
Going down to half the amount of the previous bet:
LOSS Golm +151(PIN) / No Decision +120(WH) (Not a lot of NET if either hits but back to even if Middles)
SCALP ALERT: NO DECISION @ WH & 5D
Staying at same half bet amount, always Dutch:Later picks and amounts will depend on results and latest odds as we go(John Patrick regression style)
DOUBLE WIN, NET 170%(.85 UNIT, since we only bet ½.Running total -.65 Unit) Madge +400 / Start Rd2 -120 ($27-$73 or 1-3) Looks like a fluke Middle, but the alternative No Decision was available-- just at lesser odds of course.
Let's skip the next Bernardo fight. Also, let's split our last win in half, which is 1.35 Units, half goes into:
WIN (NET half the bet.) Running Tota -.31 Unit Fishgold +320(WH) / No Decision +135 ($36/$64 or 1-2)
WIN (NET almost half the bet.) Running Tota +.17 Unit. Into the Black.Back to very first bet amount, call it 1 Unit. Gouti +600 / Start Rd 2 -115 ($21-$78 or 1-4. Will NET @ ½ the bet amount with either win, gross @ 3 times if both hit)
EPILOGUE: not a great example card(for profit). What is needed for a profitable betting fight is MINIMUM -200(preferably -300 +) on BOTH sides of the bet. PLUS either underdog with a chance OR totally dominant fave. This way, a low win % still throws profit.
Conversely, the kiss of bankroll death is evenly matched contestants, favorites that barely win, minus odds O/U.
In fact, there were so many low plus & worse, minus odds on this card, that we could not do a simple set it and forget it in advance parlay series.
Also, you might take umbrage at not having had more money on the winning bets; but this is by design. It is possible to get middled out, and it's easy to wind up in the hole with a couple of initial losses...then having to catch up with hedged winners(that only net a percentage of the original bet unless the bet is middled or both sides are offered at very high odds).
It's good to also cut second bet in half when the initial bet is a win on both sides-- several units of NET are up and pulled, guaranteeing night's profit. THEN, we can up the bet amounts AFTER the second bet IF it started a winning streak.
Gonna skip most of the rest. Apart from Cummins fight, most other odds not that great, plus most remaining faves look strong...but would need to win 5 or 6 of 7 with them, to eke out profit at minus odds. Let's play by ear / enjoy the rest of the night...and the baseball game.
Best Odds mostly are @ 5D, unless noted.
Next possible bets: Golm fight ONLY if we lose first best, Madge +400&Start Rd2 -120, Bernardo only if at minus for the night so far, Fishgold +320(WH) & NoDec +135, Gouti +660&Start Rd2 -115, Taleb/McGee/Herman/Martinez will likely skip if already up, Cummins +315(BOL)&Start Rd2 -130, last two likely skipping irregardless.
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