[turbozed]

Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series: Week 3


FIGHT CARD

Main event LHW: Ryan Spann vs. Karl Roberson
WW: Kyle Stewart vs. Jason Jackson
MW: Chase Waldon vs. Geoffrey Neal (Replaces Checco who is out)
LHW: Daniel Jolly vs. Alonzo Menfield
FW: Dan Ige vs. L. Gomez Alvarez

Lines will probably be out tonight or early tomorrow and will update then.

UPDATE: Lines just posted on 5Dimes:

UFC Fighting				Money Line	Total Points
DWCS 3 - Light Heavyweight 3 rounds - TUF Gym - Las Vegas, Nevada - UFC Fight Pass
Tue 7/25		1001 Karl Roberson		+110	o1½ -170
10:00PM		1002 Ryan Spann		-150	u1½ +130
DWCS 3 - Welterweight 3 rounds - TUF Gym - Las Vegas, Nevada - UFC Fight Pass
Tue 7/25		1101 Kyle Stewart		+130	o1½ -170
9:30PM		1102 Jason Jackson		-170	u1½ +130
DWCS 3 - Middleweight 3 rounds - TUF Gym - Las Vegas, Nevada - UFC Fight Pass
Tue 7/25		1201 Chase Waldon		-150	o1½ -165
9:00PM		1202 Geoffrey Neal		+110	u1½ +125
DWCS 3 - Light Heavyweight 3 rounds - TUF Gym - Las Vegas, Nevada - UFC Fight Pass
Tue 7/25		1301 Daniel Jolly		+235	o1½ +150
8:30PM		1302 Alonzo Menifield		-315	u1½ -190
DWCS 3 - Featherweight 3 rounds - TUF Gym - Las Vegas, Nevada - UFC Fight Pass
Tue 7/25		1401 Luis Gomez		-120	o2½ -150
8:00PM		1402 Dan Ige		-120	u2½ +110

[turbozed]

I like what I see from Kyle Stewart. Aggressive and can land strikes on the feet, in the clinch, and on the ground. If he's durable and can eat some jabs coming in, and then make it a close-range fight, I think he's got a good shot as a dog here.Jackson is also a super athlete. Must be that Jamaican sprinter genetics.Jason Jackson's has a huge advantage if he can keep the fight at his preferred range, but he takes a while to settle into it. Jackson has good lateral movement when attacking but backs up straight when pressured. Stewart's chances improve if he can get Jackson to the cage. Down to +130 so was late on the opener at +160.

[turbozed]

So Geoffrey Neal is a late notice replacement who is moving up from WW to fight in MW after fighting at WW just 11 days ago. So he's going to be at a size disadvantage for sure and that explains why Waldon is the favorite. But he's a pretty strong WW and has a lot of power, whereas Waldon is pretty hittable and isn't very strong for his weightclass. Not very much footage on either, but Neal might be a good ITD bet when it comes out.The under has been getting hit in the Waldon/Neal fight, and for good reason. Both guys pretty aggressive with KO power. Waldon may be the bigger guy but don't expect him to get top control and stay there. He usually wants to keep it on the feet and it's usually his opponents that initiate the clinch. When there is grappling Waldon sells out for submissions. Good chance these two just throw leather.

[Shagdogy]

Betting Menifield, Gomez, Stewart in order of confidence. I wish my book would open these lines now. I'm gonna lose value by the time they open them.

Leans for Neal and Roberson but prob won't play.

[Shagdogy]

So Geoffrey Neal is a late notice replacement who is moving up from WW to fight in MW after fighting at WW just 11 days ago. So he's going to be at a size disadvantage for sure and that explains why Waldon is the favorite. But he's a pretty strong WW and has a lot of power, whereas Waldon is pretty hittable and isn't very strong for his weightclass. Not very much footage on either, but Neal might be a good ITD bet when it comes out.The under has been getting hit in the Waldon/Neal fight, and for good reason. Both guys pretty aggressive with KO power. Waldon may be the bigger guy but don't expect him to get top control and stay there. He usually wants to keep it on the feet and it's usually his opponents that initiate the clinch. When there is grappling Waldon sells out for submissions. Good chance these two just throw leather.

Waldon seems to end up on his back all the time. He has no offensive takedowns so his only shot at getting top position is sweeps. On the feet his chin is way up in the air and he is hittable. His strikes are ado pretty slow. Not impressed with this guy. Wish I could see Neal more. If he had a full camp and wasn't at a weight disadvantage I would absolutely have more confidence in him than Waldon.

[Shagdogy]

I don't understand why the line has moved in Jolly's favor. Watch tape of each of these guys and it's clear that he's in for some hurt. Is it just cause he's fought in the UFC? Jolly won't be able to take down and stay on top of Menifield IMO, and even if he does he's not a killer and will likely just ride out the round. On the feet, Jolly is out there just waiting to get smoked by Menified's power. If Menifield puts Jolly on his back, his GNP is much more powerful and agressive. Jolly only wins by smothering and Menifield has shown that he's careful with distance and athletic enough to stay upright so far. Other than that, leg kicks land on him, but you'll be trading a leg kick for a power punch to your face since Menifield likes to counter agressively over the top of them. Menifield holds almost every path to victory IMO.

[Rich Benjamins]

i have Spann, Stewart, Waldon, and Menifield. Roberson has been fighting top kickboxers in Glory and losing, but they have been tough competition. Spann is more rangey, and I think may be able to get the better of Roberson in an MMA match. But it's close. Jackson is a good standup fighter, and fast, but Stewart is a more well-rounded MMA fighter. I think Stewart can get him to the ground if he needs to. I agree with Shag's view on Waldon, but I think Neal's late notice could play a negative factor. Waldon has gotten some good KOs, and hopefully he learns from his mistakes. And Menifield is a beast. He should merk Jolly standing, and be able to defend his takedowns.

[Shagdogy]

i have Spann, Stewart, Waldon, and Menifield. Roberson has been fighting top kickboxers in Glory and losing, but they have been tough competition. Spann is more rangey, and I think may be able to get the better of Roberson in an MMA match. But it's close. Jackson is a good standup fighter, and fast, but Stewart is a more well-rounded MMA fighter. I think Stewart can get him to the ground if he needs to. I agree with Shag's view on Waldon, but I think Neal's late notice could play a negative factor. Waldon has gotten some good KOs, and hopefully he learns from his mistakes. And Menifield is a beast. He should merk Jolly standing, and be able to defend his takedowns.

Menifield keeps getting cheaper. Why?? Don't ask I guess, just say thank yooouuu.

[Rich Benjamins]

Yea, I just nailed Menifiend on betonline at -205.

Menifield keeps getting cheaper. Why?? Don't ask I guess, just say thank yooouuu.

[Shagdogy]

I'm in:
Menifield -220, 4u
Gomez -135, 2.5u
Stewart +140, 1u

I'm undefeated on 4 and 5u bets this year. Pretty confident in Menifield. Not convinced Jolly is dangerous enough. I probably pushed a little to get to 4u on Menifield but my gut agreed with my brain, so here we are.

[turbozed]

There's zero footage of Menifield grappling or wrestling as far as I've seen. So my only guess is that people think Jolly is a threat to take him down and hold him there. We've seen scary strikers be completely neutralized by grappling too many times in mma, and Jolly might do this and has faced high level competition (losing spectacularly).

Those are the reasons why the line got smaller. I still think Menifield can destroy Jolly though. Menifield has been training bjj for at least a couple of years so he won't be completely clueless. I'll probably wait for a Menifield ITD play though. Hard to lay more than 2-1 on a guy with 3 pro fights especially after almost getting burned last week with Spohn.

[turbozed]

Menifield back down to -350. Guess I'll sit this one out LOL

[Shagdogy]

There's zero footage of Menifield grappling or wrestling as far as I've seen. So my only guess is that people think Jolly is a threat to take him down and hold him there. We've seen scary strikers be completely neutralized by grappling too many times in mma, and Jolly might do this and has faced high level competition (losing spectacularly).

Those are the reasons why the line got smaller. I still think Menifield can destroy Jolly though. Menifield has been training bjj for at least a couple of years so he won't be completely clueless. I'll probably wait for a Menifield ITD play though. Hard to lay more than 2-1 on a guy with 3 pro fights especially after almost getting burned last week with Spohn.

Menifield keeps distance pretty well. I donno if you saw Jolly try to play the clinch/takedown game with Cirkunov but he was clueless. I don't think Jolly is UFC caliber. Not sure why he keeps getting these opportunities?

[Shagdogy]

Menifield back down to -350. Guess I'll sit this one out LOL

Boom. Love my -220 now.

[PaperTrail07]

[Shagdogy]

We on the same, Paper?

[PaperTrail07]

Pretty Much Shag but I might sit on the trigger a little tonight.....really only reason I see the line moving for Jolly is the fact that the (2) fights he's had in the UFC SOMEHOW look OK.....looking back you cant expect him to win either of those 2 fights....and KR looked good against the bear jew last fight.... you just cant lay -290 unless you fuckn personally know Menifield IMO.....

[PaperTrail07]

Exactly....just too much Juice....keeps going I'm small on Jolly LOL...

Menifield back down to -350. Guess I'll sit this one out LOL

[PaperTrail07]

Leans:

Waldon
Roberson

[Shagdogy]

Leans:

Waldon
Roberson

Hate Waldon. I'm ok with Roberson. His hand speed could give Spann trouble but I have no clue if he can defend takedowns.

I'm surprised you feel like you've seen something from Jolly. His kicks are stiff and slow. His hands haven't shown up. His top game is just ok and he struggles to get it there. Maybe he'll prove me wrong but I'm betting against it.

[Shagdogy]

Not enough talk about Gomez. Search up "Luis Raul Gomez" to find him, or JUDOKICKBOX. Anyway, he's pretty good and much more dynamic than Ige. If Ige wins I doubt he has a shot at the contract anyway.

[PaperTrail07]

I have seen nothing in Jolly....but I just think we haven't had much opportunity to see what he can pull off vs someone of lesser skills than what he has faced...and -350 seems nutty...more of the line than my prediction....Waldron get this to the mat, its over....otherwise yes, he is less athletic and could get knocked out.....he does have more MMA skills here however.....Ill take my chances....

Hate Waldon. I'm ok with Roberson. His hand speed could give Spann trouble but I have no clue if he can defend takedowns.

I'm surprised you feel like you've seen something from Jolly. His kicks are stiff and slow. His hands haven't shown up. His top game is just ok and he struggles to get it there. Maybe he'll prove me wrong but I'm betting against it.

[Demonata]

What time does this start? I can't find it anywhere?

[dvb02]

anyone have a link to watch it?

[Shagdogy]

What time does this start? I can't find it anywhere?

8pm

[Shagdogy]

I have seen nothing in Jolly....but I just think we haven't had much opportunity to see what he can pull off vs someone of lesser skills than what he has faced...and -350 seems nutty...more of the line than my prediction....Waldron get this to the mat, its over....otherwise yes, he is less athletic and could get knocked out.....he does have more MMA skills here however.....Ill take my chances....

Paper you think it's over if Waldon gets the fight to the mat but he's on bottom? I'm not convinced. He has good BJJ and sweeps but Neal might be able to hold his base and either pin him or get out and back to standup.

[Shagdogy]

^ also, -390 now and yeah that's a little nutty, but that's why I got -220

[dvb02]

^ also, -390 now and yeah that's a little nutty, but that's why I got -220

not sure how much you put on it, but you should think about putting some on Jolly to get guaranteed money......

[dvb02]

my book has Jolly +300

[Hugo de Naranja]

Dana White’s Contenders Series 3 Picks
Luis Gomez Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Alonzo Menifield Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Chase Waldon Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Kyle Stewart Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Ryan Spann Round 1 Submission (Guillotine Choke)

[Hugo de Naranja]

Dana White’s Contenders Series 3

Fight #1: Gomez vs. Ige
Parlays

Fight #2: Menifield vs. Jolly
Parlays

Fight #3: Waldon vs Neal
No Bet

Fight #4: Jackson vs. Stewart
Stewart (+160) .5u

Fight #5: Spann vs. Roberson
No Bet

Multi-Event Parlays:
Spohn/Menifield(+106) 1u
Spohn/Gomez (+153) 1u

[Hugo de Naranja]

Mostly just tailing my boy Shag here. Not much analysis to add other than Stewart seems like a very live dog.

[Shagdogy]

Mostly just tailing my boy Shag here. Not much analysis to add other than Stewart seems like a very live dog.

Cheers good luck man. Stewart 7-0 former marine. The grit factor is high. If Jackson's gonna win he's gonna have to flat out beat him.

[Shagdogy]

Pretty terrible first round for Gomez. Didn't show up at all. Uh oh.

[Demonata]

Lol Gomez never fight again