[Sanity Check]

[firekillex]

liking holloway,kennedy, cerrone, cub at dog money, cirkunov and possibly jordan mein for the comeback fight

[Hugo de Naranja]

liking holloway,kennedy, cerrone, cub at dog money, cirkunov and possibly jordan mein for the comeback fight

Damn I actually agree with all of those although I probably will play Kennedy fight small if at all. I think he's more likely to win but odds should be closer to +/- (130) imo

[firekillex]

Damn I actually agree with all of those although I probably will play Kennedy fight small if at all. I think he's more likely to win but odds should be closer to +/- (130) imo

Just think Kennedys size will play a big factor, people really forget how good he is he's easily a top 5 MW and I think he smothers gastelum here , UFC brass gave kelvin this fight to punish him imo, Kennedy has been gone for a while but he's a certified killer I see him neutralizing kelvin for 3 rounds probably take him straight and decision prop +175, another side note watching magny take down kelvin a bunch in there previous fight gives me high hopes Tim Kennedy will definitely be able to take him down and control him ontop

pumped to see cub at +220 though that's definitely worth a shot, the super boy is actually extremely impressive in the striking and mma IQ but cub is a seasoned vet this fight is a toss up for me so I'll take the +220 all day and hope it hits


btw GJ on 5-0 this week BTP I'm pretty pissed I took Cowboys -3 they won by 2 on a last minute full field drive smh

[Hugo de Naranja]

Just think Kennedys size will play a big factor, people really forget how good he is he's easily a top 5 MW and I think he smothers gastelum here , UFC brass gave kelvin this fight to punish him imo, Kennedy has been gone for a while but he's a certified killer I see him neutralizing kelvin for 3 rounds probably take him straight and decision prop +175, another side note watching magny take down kelvin a bunch in there previous fight gives me high hopes Tim Kennedy will definitely be able to take him down and control him ontop

pumped to see cub at +220 though that's definitely worth a shot, the super boy is actually extremely impressive in the striking and mma IQ but cub is a seasoned vet this fight is a toss up for me so I'll take the +220 all day and hope it hits


btw GJ on 5-0 this week BTP I'm pretty pissed I took Cowboys -3 they won by 2 on a last minute full field drive smh

Thanks! I'll keep that in mind about Kennedy

[THE_RUDESTER]

Risk $180.00 to win $255.75 Pending 2 Team Parlay
Pending 12/10/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1002 Max Holloway -185* vs Anthony Pettis
Pending 12/10/16 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1902 Lando Vannata -175* vs John Makdessi


Risk $200.00 to win $230.69 Pending 2 Team Parlay
Pending 12/10/16 11:31pm UFC Fighting 1102 Donald Cerrone -270* vs Matt Brown
Pending 12/10/16 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1902 Lando Vannata -175* vs John Makdessi

I really expect Vannata to show up and get the win. I was very impressed with his ufc debut vs Ferguson. How do you guys see Vannata vs Makdessi playing out?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Risk $180.00 to win $255.75 Pending 2 Team Parlay
Pending 12/10/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1002 Max Holloway -185* vs Anthony Pettis
Pending 12/10/16 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1902 Lando Vannata -175* vs John Makdessi


Risk $200.00 to win $230.69 Pending 2 Team Parlay
Pending 12/10/16 11:31pm UFC Fighting 1102 Donald Cerrone -270* vs Matt Brown
Pending 12/10/16 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1902 Lando Vannata -175* vs John Makdessi

I really expect Vannata to show up and get the win. I was very impressed with his ufc debut vs Ferguson. How do you guys see Vannata vs Makdessi playing out?

I have a small bet on Vannata at the opening price of (-130) but if he doesn't get the early finish, I think Makdessi will outstrike him in the second half of the fight and we'll get a contentious decision. Vannata has a great style and his a potent finisher so I think he gets it done here.

[THE_RUDESTER]

^ Damn -130 I thought I got it early at -175 now it's at -170. I would have hammered it at -130. Hopefully he gets it done. Might consider betting him by KO and small hedge on Makdessi by decision. Vannata has a chin and no way I see him getting finished. Thanks for getting back.

[Hugo de Naranja]

^ Damn -130 I thought I got it early at -175 now it's at -170. I would have hammered it at -130. Hopefully he gets it done. Might consider betting him by KO and small hedge on Makdessi by decision. Vannata has a chin and no way I see him getting finished. Thanks for getting back.

Vannata Round 1 also worth a look. I like Makdessi Decision as the hedge.

[Unwritten Law]

I like Holloway, Cerrone, Choi, Vannata and Kennedy.

I really like Choi to KO Cub within the 1st. This is a bad match up for Cub as he prefers standing up which will play right to Choi's power and accuracy. Cub hasn't had a TKO/KO win in over 3 years, not the killer that he once was when he delivered 3 KO wins in a row, in 2012. Also felt Kawajiri was robbed vs Cub in his last fight. Choi averages slightly over 7 significant strikes per minute with a 66% accuracy rate. Cub goes to sleep.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I like Holloway, Cerrone, Choi, Vannata and Kennedy.

I really like Choi to KO Cub within the 1st. This is a bad match up for Cub as he prefers standing up which will play right to Choi's power and accuracy. Cub hasn't had a TKO/KO win in over 3 years, not the killer that he once was when he delivered 3 KO wins in a row, in 2012. Also felt Kawajiri was robbed vs Cub in his last fight. Choi averages slightly over 7 significant strikes per minute with a 66% accuracy rate. Cub goes to sleep.

The question is what happens if Choi doesn't KO Cub early? I was cageside for his fight against Tavares and he got taken down easily before dropping Tavares on his ass and finishing him. The kid hasn't really been in deep waters and this is quite the step up for him although he does have unbelievable power. I'm picking Choi to win but I think the betting value is on Cub.

[Unwritten Law]

Value is certainly on Cub's side but I feel Choi will catch Cub and hurt him bad. His TDD is solid and will only continue to improve as a 25 year old with a 14-1 professional record. He was taken down by a high level BJJ practitioner in Tavares, but Cub doesn't like the ground game and he will likely want to keep it on the feet. Choi hasn't been tested in a 3 rounder and that would be my only concern. Despite that, I think he will be able to hang and bang in deep waters.

[bjpenn85]

Value is certainly on Cub's side but I feel Choi will catch Cub and hurt him bad. His TDD is solid and will only continue to improve as a 25 year old with a 14-1 professional record. He was taken down by a high level BJJ practitioner in Tavares, but Cub doesn't like the ground game and he will likely want to keep it on the feet. Choi hasn't been tested in a 3 rounder and that would be my only concern. Despite that, I think he will be able to hang and bang in deep waters.

I agreee. I think the problem with betting cub here is that you get so high odds on cub, you kind of forget the style matchup.So Choi has already proved that he has good enough takedown defence to no getting taken down by Tavares, a classical blanket fighter. So its basically a standup fight with maybe the best striker ufc have seen in a while. If Choi had bad tdd then cub would be a better spot to bet in. I still wouldnt bet Choi at those odds, because of strikers tends to perform worse against other strikers. Fight may go the distance and then im not sure what would happen, maybe Choi would keep the pressure on Cub for a dec win, or maybe he just isnt performing like he normally does. Its just isnt a good spot betting either guy really.

Cerrone is proven, holloway proven, those are fighters that are a lot more trustworthy and stable, they will seldom fold and let you down. Cant trust the Doo hoi Chois , even how impressive they look against cans. Historically, this is why you dont win on mma. One bet on fighters with unknown merits.

[Unwritten Law]

Choi has an 8 KO win streak including 3 in a row in the UFC. Juan Manuel Puig (11-4 overall 1-1 in UFC), Sam Sicilia (15-7 overall 5-6 in UFC), Thiago Tavares (20-7 overall 10-7 in UFC). He's fought pretty seasoned veteran fighters with those 3 opponents of a combined 46-18 record so I wouldn't necessary classify them as cans.

Also, just read more about Showtime Pettis drama situation with his luxury cars being vandalized, must be a huge distraction dealing with legality issues and stress. Says he can't pass up the opportunity to fight for the #1 contender spot but mainly the money headlining the main event. Max Holloway is hungry and probably a lot more motivated for gold whereas Pettis once reached the peak and just like Tate, was one and done. I think we will legitimately see Showtime potentially getting finished on Saturday.

[bjpenn85]

Choi has an 8 KO win streak including 3 in a row in the UFC. Juan Manuel Puig (11-4 overall 1-1 in UFC), Sam Sicilia (15-7 overall 5-6 in UFC), Thiago Tavares (20-7 overall 10-7 in UFC). He's fought pretty seasoned veteran fighters with those 3 opponents of a combined 46-18 record so I wouldn't necessary classify them as cans.

Also, just read more about Showtime Pettis drama situation with his luxury cars being vandalized, must be a huge distraction dealing with legality issues and stress. Says he can't pass up the opportunity to fight for the #1 contender spot but mainly the money headlining the main event. Max Holloway is hungry and probably a lot more motivated for gold whereas Pettis once reached the peak and just like Tate, was one and done. I think we will legitimately see Showtime potentially getting finished on Saturday.

UFC cans?

[Hugo de Naranja]

I agreee. I think the problem with betting cub here is that you get so high odds on cub, you kind of forget the style matchup.So Choi has already proved that he has good enough takedown defence to no getting taken down by Tavares, a classical blanket fighter. So its basically a standup fight with maybe the best striker ufc have seen in a while. If Choi had bad tdd then cub would be a better spot to bet in. I still wouldnt bet Choi at those odds, because of strikers tends to perform worse against other strikers. Fight may go the distance and then im not sure what would happen, maybe Choi would keep the pressure on Cub for a dec win, or maybe he just isnt performing like he normally does. Its just isnt a good spot betting either guy really.

Cerrone is proven, holloway proven, those are fighters that are a lot more trustworthy and stable, they will seldom fold and let you down. Cant trust the Doo hoi Chois , even how impressive they look against cans. Historically, this is why you dont win on mma. One bet on fighters with unknown merits.

Rewatch that fight with Tavares BJ. He did get taken down.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Although I agree with you on Holloway and Cerrone for sure.

[firekillex]

Rewatch that fight with Tavares BJ. He did get taken down.

rewatched the fight with choi and tavares, tavares did take him down quiet easily, choi did use solid technique by pushing down on tavares head to get up , then got up used his feints and landed a straight right down the middle to drop him like a sack of potatoes... all that said cub swanson is on a different level then tavares, this is chois biggest test by far in his mma career, he is a beast thats no doubt but people cannot sleep on cub swanson, at +200 value its an easy bet to take, even if he losses i could sleep at night knowing i took the right value imo, this is a toss up fight so you take the dog, cub is very skilled in the standup as well and could easily knockout choi, choi could most definitely tag cub to, people will be sleeping on cubs wrestling and ground game though he is no slouch there at all.. regardless should be fireworks , super excited for this scrap

[bjpenn85]

Rewatch that fight with Tavares BJ. He did get taken down.

Yeah yeah i know, im sloppy, i meant, but not controlled for long periods of time, only quick takedowns and then right up. Maybe Cub can mix striking with takedowns and controll him. His striking is certainly so good he can play choi into believing hes going to stand and then kaboom, takedown. A takedowns when choi lies in flat on his back and doesnt stand any chance of getting up, in the middle of the cage. But do you trust cub to fight like that? Heres the answer - you shouldnt!

[UncleChael]

The whole forum is on Holloway. Anthony Pettis is a nasty striker with better kicks.

[GunShard]

Pettis is a live dog for sure.

[UncleChael]

I think Cub Swanson should take down Choi but the dude likes to strike and show off his beautiful destruction. Choi gets the better on the feet?

[firekillex]

The whole forum is on Holloway. Anthony Pettis is a nasty striker with better kicks.

Holloway has better boxing easily, Pettis has better kicks. I liked Holloway at -160 price is now at -210 which is outrageous , Pettis at +175 or more is solid value for sure even though I think Holloway edges a decision , Pettis definitely has a shot here

[Hugo de Naranja]

Holloway has better boxing easily, Pettis has better kicks. I liked Holloway at -160 price is now at -210 which is outrageous , Pettis at +175 or more is solid value for sure even though I think Holloway edges a decision , Pettis definitely has a shot here

Hoping the line comes down here. Was going to place a big bet on Max at (-150). Line got to (-155) and has now veered sharply the other way.

[JIBBBY]

Parts 1 and 2 MMA MANIA -





155 lbs.: Lando Vannata vs. John Makdessi
Few gave Lando Vannata (8-1) any shot when he stepped up on short notice to face Tony Ferguson, least of all the oddsmakers who made him a +475 underdog. To everyone’s surprise, "Groovy" gave "El Cucuy" the fight of his life and --despite ultimately losing via submission -- hurt him worse than anyone before in UFC to date.
He has submitted four professional opponents and knocked out another three.
John Makdessi (14-5), stepping into the Octagon for the thirteenth time this weekend, continues to find himself in controversial decisions. He suffered a questionable split decision loss to Yancy Medeiros in Dec. 2014 and, most recently, scraped past The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) veteran Mehdi Baghdad in July.
Nine of his wins, including two of his last three, have come by form of knockout.
Even being careful not to overvalue Vannata’s performance against Ferguson, it’s hard not to pick him here. Makdessi continues to lack urgency in his striking despite it biting him in the rear multiple times. Against Vannata, whose slick head movement precludes serious damage and whose quality boxing can inflict the same in return, that’s just not an issue he can afford to have.
Vannata ought to have the wrestling edge and I just don’t have any faith that Makdessi will throw enough to keep him honest. Vannata uses volume and pressure to take a striking-heavy decision.
Prediction: Vannata via unanimous decision

155 lbs.: Rustam Khabilov vs. Jason Saggo

Once on the cusp of Lightweight contendership, Rustam Khabilov (20-3) has had to claw his way back up after consecutive losses to Benson Henderson and Adriano Martins. He has spent 2016 overpowering his fellow grapplers, defeating Norman Parke, Chris Wade and Leandro Silva by decision.
He will give up three inches of height to the 5’11" Jason Saggo (12-2).
Saggo ran roughshod over Josh Shockley in his Octagon debut before losing a split decision to Paul Felder his next time out. Missing all of 2015 with a torn ACL, he returned to the cage in March and picked up wins over Justin Salas and Leandro Silva.
Eight of his 11 finishes have come by submission, seven by form of choke.
I’m not exactly sure why they keep putting Khabilov against grapplers whom he can beat but not look good against. Aside from being more active in his pursuit of submissions and ground-and-pound, Saggo really presents no issues that Khabilov didn’t already overcome in his last three fights. My major hope is that Khabilov can regain some of the confidence in his striking he had before the Henderson loss.
Even if he remains tentative, however, his wrestling is more than enough to carry him to another victory.
Prediction: Khabilov via unanimous decision

125 lbs.: Zach Makovsky vs. Dustin Ortiz

Once Bellator MMA’s Bantamweight champion, Zach Makovsky (19-7) made the drop to 125 pounds and quickly won four straight, including two in UFC. He is 1-3 since, defeating Tim Elliott but losing decisions to division standouts Jussier "Formiga", John Dodson and Joseph Benavidez.
He is an inch shorter than Dustin Ortiz (15-6) at 5’4."
Ortiz opened his UFC career 3-1, defeating top prospects Ray Borg and Justin Scoggins in the process. He is likewise on a 1-3 stretch at the moment, including losses to the aforementioned "Formiga" and Benavidez.
He replaces the injured John Moraga on one month’s notice.
Both of these guys are significantly better than their UFC records suggest. Indeed, the opponents I mentioned above are all Top 5-ranked talent at Flyweight and the worst ZUFFA loss between them is probably Ortiz’s questionable decision loss to John Moraga, who is himself a former title challenger.
The key factor that has me picking Makovsky is the fact that Wilson Reis gave Ortiz the exact kind of scramble-heavy battle he thrives in and dominated him anyway. Makovsky’s issues stem from his lack of stopping power on the feet --against someone who will engage him on the mat, his technical prowess shines. Expect a fun, competitive ground battle that sees Makovsky take enough dominant positions to earn the win.
Prediction: Makovsky via unanimous decision


155 lbs.: Drew Dober (17-7) vs. Olivier Aubin-Mercier (8-2)
Since going 1-3, 1 NC in his first five UFC bouts, Dober has rattled off impressive wins over Scott Holtzman and Jason Gonzalez. The former was an upset of a previously undefeated fighter, while the latter saw him knock Gonzalez cold with a brutal flurry. At 5’8", he is an inch shorter than Aubin-Mercier.
Quebec’s Aubin-Mercier fell short against Chad Laprise on the Ultimate Fighter: Nations finale, but showed off his skills with three straight wins. A loss to Carlos Diego Ferreira halted his momentum, although he choked out Thibault Gouti to recuperate in June. Seven of his eight wins have come by submission, six of them by rear-naked choke.
This is a pretty good fight, all things considered. Dober has the solid wrestling and technical striking that Aubin-Mercier needs to prove he can deal with. Luckily for "OAM," Dober isn’t generally a great finisher and lacks the toolset to properly punish Aubin-Mercier’s relentless pursuit of the clinch.
"The Quebec Kid" may not wind up completing as many takedowns as he’d like, but as against Tony Sims, he’ll spend enough time frustrating Dober against the fence and dragging him into awkward positions to take the decision.
Prediction: Aubin-Mercier via unanimous decision

115 lbs.: Valerie Letourneau (8-5) vs. Viviane Pereira (12-0)

"Trouble" didn’t make it through the elimination round on The Ultimate Fighter 18, but fought her way to a title shot with three consecutive UFC victories. After falling short against Joanna Jedrzejczyk, she faced Joanne Calderwood at flyweight and suffered her first (T)KO loss since 2007. Half of her wins have come by form of knockout.
"Sucuri" has dominated the Brazilian scene since her 2012 debut, winning fights from strawweight to bantamweight and earning titles in two different weight classes. When former victim and current flyweight standout Poliana Botelho was forced out due to injury, Pereira stepped in on around six weeks’ notice. She will give up an impressive seven inches of height to Létourneau.
There’s a lot to like about Pereira’s style; she’s an aggressive striker with real power in her hands and a quality ground game to back it up. She could be a player at 115, but she’ll have to overcome an unsuccessful debut to do so.
Why? Seven-inch height disadvantage.
Létourneau is a very skilled boxer with the technique and power to make brutal use of that diference. Unless the Calderwood loss wrecked her confidence, she ought to be able to pick Peteira apart at range and avoid most of the return fire. She takes a decision win behind quality power punches and distance management.
Prediction: Letourneau by unanimous decision

205 lbs.: Misha Cirkunov (12-2) vs. Nikita Krylov (21-4)

Xtreme Couture’s Cirkunov has not tasted defeat since 2012, stopping his last seven opponents. He is 3-0 in the UFC itself with dominant victories over Daniel Jolly, Alex Nicholson, and Ion Cutelaba. Six of his ten finishes have come by submission.
Once seemingly a novelty, Krylov has rebounded from a 1-2 start to his UFC career to become an unexpected contender. He has won five straight since losing to Ovince St. Preux, all by stoppage within two rounds, and most recently head kicked Ed Herman to score one of the year’s better knockouts. He has never gone the distance as a pro, submitting thirteen.
I generally can’t pick Krylov’s fights to save my life, so I’ll fully accept whatever egg hits my face when I pick against him again. Cirkunov is a legitimate blue-chip prospect who not only has a sizable wrestling edge, but already showed his ability to defuse aggressive swarmers in one-sided wins over Nicholson and Cutelaba.
Though Krylov has upside for days, Cirkunov is the sort of patient and crafty grappler that can mercilessly exploit "The Miner’s" technical lapses. Cirkunov earns his fourth UFC victory, surviving the early rush and ultimately wearing Krylov down for the finish.
Prediction: Cirkunov via second-round submission

135 lbs.: Mitch Gagnon (12-3) vs. Matthew Lopez (8-1)

Though Gagnon lost his UFC debut to Bryan Caraway, he walked away with a Fight of the Night bonus and followed that up with four straight wins, three of them by first-round submission. He then fought Renan Barão in the latter’s first fight since losing the title, fighting well but ultimately running out of steam and getting submitted. This will be his first fight since losing to Barao in 2014.
Lopez’s powerful wrestling and grappling skills carried him to seven first-round finishes in his first eight bouts, five of them under the RFA banner. The final win caught Dana White’s eye and sent him to the UFC, where he succumbed to Rani Yahya’s legendary submission prowess. He has four wins by submission, one of them was to strikes.
This looks like it’ll be a lot of fun. Gagnon’s incredibly aggressive on both the feet and the mat, while Lopez is more than happy to oblige in scrambles. I’d ordinarily be hesitant due to Gagnon’s cardio issues, but Lopez slowed down as well against Yahya, likely due to the frenetic pace he pushes.
Lopez is in an odd position wherein he needs that kind of pace to keep up with Gagnon; neither can maintain it, but I’m not sure Lopez can stay competitive at a lower one without getting finished. Gagnon’s experience and physical strength carry him through as he snags a guillotine during a particularly wild scramble.
Prediction: Gagnon by first-round submission

[firekillex]

Update: cowboy fell off a horse and messed up his eye, the injury was real
he went to Mexico to get stem cells into the the eye and it basically is fine now , has a small black eye but his eyes fully open and I don't think think it'll hinder his performance

[JIBBBY]

Cub, Pettis, Gas and Cowboy for me in the mains...

Cub and Pettis as dogs I think you gotta try.. One of the 2 should hit.. I may play $500 on each straight.. I might even throw in Gas as a 3rd dog for $500..

Even though Gas never makes weight he is tough, can wrestle and is impossible to finish.. Kind of a clone to Kennedy almost in a sense.. The over in that fight hits for sure....

[Hugo de Naranja]

Any idea why there are no Scorecards = No Action prop for either this card or the Albany one?

[JIBBBY]

Any idea why there are no Scorecards = No Action prop for either this card or the Albany one?

Probably will pop up in the next day or 2.. With the double action cards this weekend it's probably taking a little more time to deliver the goods...

[Hugo de Naranja]

Probably will pop up in the next day or 2.. With the double action cards this weekend it's probably taking a little more time to deliver the goods...

Hoping so.

[JIBBBY]

Hoping so.

What do you have in mind? I hit the Pettis by sub already at +676 as I think it has a chance.. Pettis is cutting hard to make 145 and could get dropped himself though standing.. Didn't like the odds on the Holloway by KO prop.. Going with the dog Pettis in this fight across the board..

Is a 5 round fight...

[firekillex]

5 rounds greatly improves holloways chances imo especially with pettis cutting so hard to get to 45

[Hugo de Naranja]

What do you have in mind? I hit the Pettis by sub already at +676 as I think it has a chance.. Pettis is cutting hard to make 145 and could get dropped himself though standing.. Didn't like the odds on the Holloway by KO prop.. Going with the dog Pettis in this fight across the board..

Is a 5 round fight...

I hit that as my hedge. There are a couple different SNA things I like but we'll see if they show up.

[Unwritten Law]

Pettis is going to sleep via submission and Choi wins via TKO.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Pettis is going to sleep via submission and Choi wins via TKO.

Round predictions?