[Hugo de Naranja]

Anyone else have predictions for champions at the end of next year?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Fuckingg Cain Velasquez pulls out from his fight with injury. Another bitchh ass AKA fuckk up.

[bjpenn85]

" Ill be fine, i just need an injection that im good to go".

Well, youre not. If you need surgery, you cant compete, i mean, the pain is probably pretty bad, since patient pain perception is number one reason to undergo surgery in the first place.

And the man is pretty stupid to go out and publicly talk about the symptoms. Or maybe he did it on on purpose to avoid fighting, which is very sensible

[GoBlue77]

Excited to see the P4P King but a beatdown on Garbrandt.

you're going to be disappointed there my friend.

[Hugo de Naranja]

you're going to be disappointed there my friend.

You going with Garbrandt here Blue?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hugo's Prospects to Watch in 2017:
WSW: Tatiana Suarez
WBW: Ashlee Evans-Smith
WFW: Megan Anderson

FW: Brandon Moreno
BW: Thomas Almeida
FW2: Mirsad Bektic
LW: Joe Duffy
WW: Colby Covington
MW: Krzysztof Jotko
LHW: Misha Cirkunov
HW: Francis Ngannou

[firekillex]

Anyone else have predictions for champions at the end of next year?

ill give you a prediction tomorrow when im not drunk hugo, ill have to think about that for 5-10 minutes and check the rankings

[Hugo de Naranja]

ill give you a prediction tomorrow when im not drunk hugo, ill have to think about that for 5-10 minutes and check the rankings

Cool sounds good

[firekillex]

Womans SW: JJ dont see anybody beating her for a while

Womans BW: Cat Zingano i think she needs one big win then could possibly challenge for a belt if the landscape works out , if shes mentally there i think shes the top fighter in the division

Womans FW: Cyborg no explanation needed

Mens FlyW: Demetrious Johnson nobody is touching him in 2017

Mens BW: Tj dillashaw i think if he makes the adjusments and doesnt wind up on his all punches he could beat cruz his leg kicks were starting to damage cruz visibly and after all the injuries who knows if cruz will be around in a full year

Mens FeatherW: Max holloway dont like aldos mindstate lately and i think holloway could be the future of the division ( sleeper is dennis bermudez )

Mens LW: Connor Mcgregor if hes still fighting ( Tony Ferguson if Mcgregor is inactive ) i think tony has the most skills in the division and 5 rounds i see him beating Khabib

Mens WW: this is the toughest call imo the top 2 guys Tyron Woodley and wonderboy are getting older and they both rely heavy on athletiscm i thought Tyron won that first fight imo the rematch i could easily see Thompson winning ( Cerrone darkhorse )

Mens MW : Luke Rockhold if healthy and fighting ( if not Jacare Souza )

Mens LHW: Jon Jones ( king pin of 205 ) only guy with a shot imo is rumble johnson to knock him out

Mens HW : Cain Velasquez i think he gets this back surgery takes a few months to get healthy takes one fight wins and fights for the belt end of the year and wins the belt fully healthy and back to the killer ( possibly fight 2-3 defend the belt and retire )

[Hugo de Naranja]

I like a lot of your picks Fire. Thanks for taking the time to think about it. Not sure if Cyborg will be fighting for the title next year as she is likely to get suspended by USADA for 1+ years.

[GoBlue77]

You going with Garbrandt here Blue?

NOT large but yes.

[firekillex]

I like a lot of your picks Fire. Thanks for taking the time to think about it. Not sure if Cyborg will be fighting for the title next year as she is likely to get suspended by USADA for 1+ years.

i seen that usada infraction and she was talking about recovering from her weight cut? seems sketchy like always and she doesnt pass the smell test so very valid point , maybe she gets a meeting with USADA and gets a reduce sentence to a year and wins the title on the new years card to get the miracle prediction , we all know shes the best 145 women in the world anyways.... wonder to see who theyll even put in that divison imo, probably take some invicta talent and find some new comers?


whats your predictions looking like ? Merry Xmas btw Hugo have a good one with the family

[Hugo de Naranja]

i seen that usada infraction and she was talking about recovering from her weight cut? seems sketchy like always and she doesnt pass the smell test so very valid point , maybe she gets a meeting with USADA and gets a reduce sentence to a year and wins the title on the new years card to get the miracle prediction , we all know shes the best 145 women in the world anyways.... wonder to see who theyll even put in that divison imo, probably take some invicta talent and find some new comers?


whats your predictions looking like ? Merry Xmas btw Hugo have a good one with the family

Thanks man. You too! Surprised to see someone else with me on Zingano for the belt. Which predictions do you mean?

[Hugo de Naranja]

NOT large but yes.

Why is that?

[firekillex]

Thanks man. You too! Surprised to see someone else with me on Zingano for the belt. Which predictions do you mean?

for the champions of 2017
and zingano is extremely talented just had some tough times lately in her personal life that i think derailed her a bit, if she gets back on track i see her being champion very soon

[Hugo de Naranja]

Mine are Post #595 on this thread. Agreed on Zingano

[firekillex]

Mine are Post #595 on this thread. Agreed on Zingano

solid list, got some agreements there .. If cruz stays healthy i think hell stay champion but its a big IF
imo i cant see maia being a champion at 70 for me , i think wonderboy or tyron starch him but hed have a better shot against wonderboy for me...
and if stipe faces a healthy cain thats an amazing matchup but i think cain is a little bit better in every aspect imo


2016 was an amazing year for mma though , hopefully 2017 brings more of the same , the way the UFC is treating the employees they better step up before people start jumping ship, i love having all the best talent under one organization so there isnt questions would this guy beat this guy since we can just match them up, its good to have one or 2 competing places with a small amount of talent to raise pay but id hate to see a bunch of top 10 guys leave the UFC , hopefully they do whats right soon or one of these unions/associations/ muhammad ali act can come into play this year because these men/women are putting just as much or more blood, sweat and tears into the sport as any other big sports athletes who make 2+mil a year minimum

[Hugo de Naranja]

Cruz Decision back up to (+145) hmmm

[firekillex]

Nunes +190/+200 over rousey I think I'll be putting something on this

The early bird bet came through

[Hugo de Naranja]

The early bird bet came through

Nice call there bud. I liked her at first but then changed my mind. Got to trust your instincts.

[firekillex]

Nice call there bud. I liked her at first but then changed my mind. Got to trust your instincts.

The early lines are the game winners fr , can get some really juicy lines ... I honestly leaned Nunes but thought it would be much closer then what it was ... just liked the odds so had to take a shot

really surprised Cruz lost though Cody really impressed me tonight
him vs tj is gonna be fireworks

[Hugo de Naranja]

The early lines are the game winners fr , can get some really juicy lines ... I honestly leaned Nunes but thought it would be much closer then what it was ... just liked the odds so had to take a shot

really surprised Cruz lost though Cody really impressed me tonight
him vs tj is gonna be fireworks

Excellent performance from Cody. Answered a lot of questions and could be a champion for awhile to come. Interested to see what that line opens at.

[firekillex]

Excellent performance from Cody. Answered a lot of questions and could be a champion for awhile to come. Interested to see what that line opens at.

After both guys performance I can't see either guy being over -130 imo, super tough fight will definitely be fireworks

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hugo's 2016 Bellator/WSOF/Invicta Results:

Bellator Results:
Bellator 167: Taimanglo vs. Caldwell II = -2.73u
Bellator 166: Dantas vs. Warren II = +2.06u
Bellator 165: Chandler vs. Henderson = -3.75u
Bellator 163: McGeary vs. Davis = +.2u
Bellator 161: Kongo vs. Johnson = -1u
Bellator 160: Henderson vs. Pitbull = -1u

Total 2016 Bellator Profit/Loss: -6.22u

WSOF Results:
WSOF 34: Gaethje vs. Firmino = -1.25u
WSOF 33: Branch vs. Magalhaes = -2u

Total 2016 WSOF Profit/Loss: -3.25u

Invicta Results:
Invicta 20: Evinger vs. Kunitskaya = -1u

Total 2016 Invicta Profit/Loss: -1u

Net losses for me in all the non-UFC promotions but I'm learning more and more about fighters outside the UFC. Hoping for a profitable 2017 for MMA betting outside of the UFC and looking to improve each day.

[Hugo de Naranja]

2016 UFC Results:
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey = -5.5845u
UFC on Fox 22: VanZant vs. Waterson = -16.425u
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis = +14.35u
UFC Fight Night 102: Lewis vs. Abdurakhimov = +6.52u
UFC Ultimate Fighter 24 Finale: Johnson vs. Elliott = +2.6075u
UFC Fight Night 101: Brunson vs. Whittaker = -31.615u
UFC Fight Night 100: Bader vs. Nogueira II = +21.71u
UFC Fight Night 99: Mousasi vs. Hall II = -1.5375u
UFC 205: Alvarez vs. McGregor = +31.3735u
UFC Fight Night 98: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson = -11.255u
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson = -6.995u
UFC Fight Night 96: Lineker vs. Dodson = +.9125u
UFC Fight Night 95: Cyborg vs. Lansberg = -3.3275u
UFC Fight Night 94: Poirier vs. Johnson = -12.8875u
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem = +13.405u
UFC Fight Night 93: Arlovski vs. Barnett = -3.7425u
UFC on Fox 21: Maia vs. Condit = +14.1675u
UFC 202: McGregor vs. Diaz II = +4.415u
UFC Fight Night 92: Rodriguez vs. Caceres = +5.2775u
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley = +8.85u
UFC on Fox 20: Holm vs. Shevchenko = +4.645u
Multi-Event Parlays = -.23u

Total 2016 UFC Profit/Loss: +34.634u

Really happy with my UFC Results for this year with over 30 units of profit since I started posting my bets in late July.

[LiquidNuke]

Great stuff, and the picks and analysis that go along with them are appreciated.

[firekillex]

Woodley vs bisping 180 catch weight in may????

[Hugo de Naranja]

Woodley vs bisping 180 catch weight in may????

Is that announced?

[firekillex]

Is that announced?

Came up on my bleacher report app I guess they verbally agreed backstage , so definitely isn't official ... not sure how I feel about it rather see Maia Woodley and Yoel bisping imo

[Hugo de Naranja]

Came up on my bleacher report app I guess they verbally agreed backstage , so definitely isn't official ... not sure how I feel about it rather see Maia Woodley and Yoel bisping imo

Same. Also like Thompson/Woodley rematch

[firekillex]

Same. Also like Thompson/Woodley rematch

First fight had solid moments , just imo thought Tyron won and I've kinda had enough of all these rematches.... but I wouldn't be upset if they rebook it probably the most likely scenario

[Hugo de Naranja]

A shitton of low-level heavyweight bouts on this upcoming card. I'll probably have fewer bets then usual as a result.

[Hugo de Naranja]

One thing I would love to see more in 2017 is people posting their bets and stakes before the events. A handful of us (myself, bjpenn, Shaggy, Flea Hotel, TPowell, sometime Jibs) do this already but it would be cool if more of the forum put their money where their mouth is by posting their picks before the fights rather than just sounding off after they win. That's my two cents anyways

[Shagdogy]

One thing I would love to see more in 2017 is people posting their bets and stakes before the events. A handful of us (myself, bjpenn, Shaggy, Flea Hotel, TPowell, sometime Jibs) do this already but it would be cool if more of the forum put their money where their mouth is by posting their picks before the fights rather than just sounding off after they win. That's my two cents anyways

Definitely... we're all here to win. We help each other if we post ahead of time and we can see where we are each strong. I've only really been good about this for the past 5 cards, and I've won on 4 of them. I know there will be ups and downs but since I've recommitted to doing MMA right, I've had a good run.

In the interest of starting 2017 off right, what are some of your basic, most successful guidelines? A couple rules to live by for me:
* Never chase bets during a card. Get all bets in ahead of time and see what happens.
* Never bet fights solely on wikipedia research and MMA-math. Watch tape. Set your own line. Bet value.
* When you watch old fights, trust your eyes, even if you disagree with everyone else here. Trust what you see and make YOUR play.

What do you guys do that's successful for you? I'm gonna be in Vegas for this first fight card... gotta start off strong!

[firekillex]

One thing I would love to see more in 2017 is people posting their bets and stakes before the events. A handful of us (myself, bjpenn, Shaggy, Flea Hotel, TPowell, sometime Jibs) do this already but it would be cool if more of the forum put their money where their mouth is by posting their picks before the fights rather than just sounding off after they win. That's my two cents anyways

i just enjoy giving my insight on fights here and talking mma, honestly i dont even pay much mind to what people here bet haha i go with my gut and stick to it , ive been burned early when i started following peoples advices when i thought different and lost then kicked myself in the ass for it, its cool talking ideas and thoughts on fighters/ future matchups though i could do that for days and do with friends in person which can always get heated hahaha... not here for any glory or anything tbh... i actually sell some of my picks to people so i dont really give out picks here i just say who i like before the card and my thoughts of the fights usually before i look at the stats or anything like that just by the eye test... In my experience i like picking 2-5 fights max each card that i like and going with my strongest intuitions i dont like betting every fight on the card because theres so many new fighters each card some ive never had the time to even watch or have only seen 1-2 times which isnt enough data for me , but i agree people who boast and talk crap saying they bet somebody after the fight has happened is annoying , say who you like before the fight if you want to say your opinion after the fact or you just look stupid... Plenty of people think they know mma and betting but its not about making money on one card when theres dozens a year, its about making a solid ROI yearly and enjoying the sport we love for me imo

sidenote: even the best bets can lose its mma one of the most unpredictable sports there is , when you wear 4oz gloves and are throwing with wreckless abandon even the better man/woman can lose on a given night, gotta work the odds
http://www.onlinegambling.com/sports...alculators.htm

i use this calculator to work the odds example a fighter is -200 that means you need to think they have 67% + chance of winning to have an edge ... work the odds and probabilites on fights you actually know and youll make a profit in the long term and yes dont chase losses or youll be buried in no time , and dont play fights you have 0 clue about and tailing with a prayer in the longterm you most likely will not be profitable
cheers to a solid 2016, hopefully more money comes 2017