[bjpenn85]

Adding:

5 units on Pedru Munhoz @ 1.54 units to win - 2.7 units
1 unit on Alvarez @ 4.75 units to win - 3.75 units

[bjpenn85]

Info shiet

Results since 7th. may 2016: +19.13 units AKA 1900 dollars

1 unit is 100 dollars.

[rsynweap84]

Is it just the value in Alvarez or something else you see in him?

[bjpenn85]

Is it just the value in Alvarez or something else you see in him?

Its to desire and will to win. Its the experience of high level fights for many years, the fighter iq. I think Dos anjos rightfully is the favourite but not -430, maybe -260-280. I will be a little surprised to see alvarez come through here, but i always am everytime underdogs actually win. Cashed on Iceland yesterday at +850, i never believed they actually could win..

[rsynweap84]

You know I just can't buy they high level fighters arguement I mean Dos Anjos isn't exactly fighting pure trash here, Jeremy Stephens, Nate Diaz, Anthony Pettis, and twice on Donald Cerrone...and those are just his wins. Factor in losses to crazycaveman Guida and Khabib and I wouldn't put his experience that much lower, if at all.

However I do not see Alvarez as without a shot here, while I do strongly believe RDA has a ground game advantage, the problem is that absurd TDD rating Alvarez has, getting him down will take some serious work.

Additionally I do maintain my belief that the technical striking of Alvarez is also superior, the last thing RDA needs is a spinning elbow to split is forehead open like Alvarez used on Melendez.

I do admit Alvarez isn't without a chance here.

[bjpenn85]

You know I just can't buy they high level fighters arguement I mean Dos Anjos isn't exactly fighting pure trash here, Jeremy Stephens, Nate Diaz, Anthony Pettis, and twice on Donald Cerrone...and those are just his wins. Factor in losses to crazycaveman Guida and Khabib and I wouldn't put his experience that much lower, if at all.

However I do not see Alvarez as without a shot here, while I do strongly believe RDA has a ground game advantage, the problem is that absurd TDD rating Alvarez has, getting him down will take some serious work.

Additionally I do maintain my belief that the technical striking of Alvarez is also superior, the last thing RDA needs is a spinning elbow to split is forehead open like Alvarez used on Melendez.

I do admit Alvarez isn't without a chance here.

Im not saying that Dos anjos hasnt fought high level competition. If fighter A has fought good competition, that doesnt mean fighter B has not fought high level competition. Maybe you misunderstood my point?

My point is, how large is the skill disparity for two fighters at the top in the lightweight division? Shouldnt be +400 IMO. I think Dos anjos will win, but he doesnt have all the advantages in this fight. He has been rocked, he can be outwrestled. If outwrestled, can he also loose a kickboxing competition subsequently? Im willing to take the shot for 1 unit and small chance of winning 4 units.

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

3 units on Pedro Munhoz @ 1.54 to win - 1.6 units

[Ty$]

Adding:

3 units on Pedro Munhoz @ 1.54 to win - 1.6 units

Let's get this $$$ BJ I'm in on Alvarez too!!!

[bjpenn85]

Let's get this $$$ BJ I'm in on Alvarez too!!!

Fakk yeah! Munhoz at -185 is more than fair. Slightly better than Doane everywhere, this line will soon end up @ -280. Should buy now. Doane has lost to fighters Munhoz has smashed + he is better standing and has the wrestling to keep it standing. Better athlete as well. The line at this point doesnt make any sense, the community is sleeping tight on this one

[rsynweap84]

Im not saying that Dos anjos hasnt fought high level competition. If fighter A has fought good competition, that doesnt mean fighter B has not fought high level competition. Maybe you misunderstood my point?

My point is, how large is the skill disparity for two fighters at the top in the lightweight division? Shouldnt be +400 IMO. I think Dos anjos will win, but he doesnt have all the advantages in this fight. He has been rocked, he can be outwrestled. If outwrestled, can he also loose a kickboxing competition subsequently? Im willing to take the shot for 1 unit and small chance of winning 4 units.

I hear ya' BJ, appreciate the time and clarification, just that the argument of fight top level competition has been tossed around at the old workplace too by some peoples, course the difference between them and myself, I bet, they ain't got the stomach or nerve for it...possibly the bankroll but that's a personal prob, money management might help em'.

I do agree with most of your points, and to be honest I've been reading these forums before registering...for a few months now actually. You seem to do pretty good, so your input I find valuable. There was one retard who claimed you didn't know what you were doing when you bought back a fight from FN89, can't remember his name, but it's clear why you know your fights, like the thread titles say. Also he mighta done good to notice your record since May was reading +19 units...like I said I value the input. On that note yes, I do think the odds are a bit high on RDA. I too believe he can be out wrestled, Khabib proved that, I just feel that wouldn't be the smartest thing to attempt right away, I think Eddie's best shot is to protect his legs and body, and strike him into the mat. Honestly I feel like sometimes he lands with good combo's but for some reason, stops abruptly, to the dismay of his corner. He's a natural striker, and like I said before, if he can avoid some of RDA's nasty kicks, and watch for the TD's I think he's got a good shot at winning.

One thing I do admit that worries me is the way titles and main events have been goin'...seems the dogs have come out, barked their head's off this year.

Anyways, thanks again for the clarification BJ, appreciate it. trust me if it had been anyone else saying Alvarez I really wouldn't have thought much of it...well...maybe Jibby, heh...like I said I been reading these pretty regularly every day, in addition to watchin' my fight videos in preparation.

[bjpenn85]

Muchos appreciante!

Winning on underdogs is harder but they are increasingly easier to spot than before. Some people here gave me some critique choosing favourites too often, and i will say im getting a whole lot better these days. I win more or less the same, but are risking less. One must be willing to loose a little on the underdogs. If you can get underdogs that are durable who doesnt get finished you can easy hit the favourite by dec prop a lot of the times as well.

Im not sure Alvarez is durable enough in this particular instant as Dos anjos is becoming a quite the finisher.

[rsynweap84]

I question Alvarez's durability after watching the Cerrone fight, but he did eat a ton of nasty leg and body shots, I think anyone would've had some issues absorbing. And he did improve his defense against kicks a bit since then imo.

I have heard remarks to the effect of the finishing power of Alvarez, but I point to two instances:

The first, in the Cerrone fight, while the fight definitely ended up going Cerrone's way, he was none to happy about eating the flurry of punches Eddie gifted him during that clench in the first round. Cowboy was definitely wincing and in trouble, but nothing else really followed.

The second was actually a few times in the Melendez fight, with the strikes that landed good and hard and did damage, but again would not be followed through with. Thankfully what he did scored enough points for the win.

I don't think he should be wreckless but Eddie could use a bit more confidence in his striking, he's got the power, but then he ain't exactly fightin' scrubs so yea I get his caution.

In all honesty I'm gonna cover outcomes for both fighters in this fight.

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

3 unts on Pedro Munhoz @ 1.52 to win - 1.5 units

[bjpenn85]

I question Alvarez's durability after watching the Cerrone fight, but he did eat a ton of nasty leg and body shots, I think anyone would've had some issues absorbing. And he did improve his defense against kicks a bit since then imo.

I have heard remarks to the effect of the finishing power of Alvarez, but I point to two instances:

The first, in the Cerrone fight, while the fight definitely ended up going Cerrone's way, he was none to happy about eating the flurry of punches Eddie gifted him during that clench in the first round. Cowboy was definitely wincing and in trouble, but nothing else really followed.

The second was actually a few times in the Melendez fight, with the strikes that landed good and hard and did damage, but again would not be followed through with. Thankfully what he did scored enough points for the win.

I don't think he should be wreckless but Eddie could use a bit more confidence in his striking, he's got the power, but then he ain't exactly fightin' scrubs so yea I get his caution.

In all honesty I'm gonna cover outcomes for both fighters in this fight.

Very hard fight to cap. I think the best way to play this is just alvarez straight for a smaller sum. Difficult to know how this ends, most likely you end up losing on the hedge as well. Its better to play a smaller sum, and then loose, rather then loosing on several small plays. The losses really adds up if you have a lot of other plays as well.

[Sato]

You are so cheap you copy Josh with his "knows" thing. Be original, be clever!

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

10 units on Pedro Munhoz @ 1.54 units to win - 5,4 units
1 unit on Alvarez @ 4.75 units to win - 3.75 units

Why Pedro Munhoz? The man is simply the overall better MMA fighter. On the feet he has a decent chin and decent striking. On the ground he has a really good guillotine and good wrestling. Also the better athlete and better mixing the different areas together. Munhoz had a little bit of hype from the start and was on short notice matched with Raphael Assuncao, and fought him to a decision. Not bad for a newcomer. After that he beat hobar and Sanders easily in round 1, Sanders which Doane lost to, so that speaks volumes of the level each man find himself at.

Munhoz then fought a close fight with Jimmy rivera, who appears to be a really good fighter, at least in my eyes. Anyway, on the feet Munhoz has the sharper hands, quicker hands and the more varied attack. Also some nice knees there. He can probably also dictate where the fight is taking place as his wrestling is pretty fly.

That leaves Doane no option to win this fight IMO. He cant trade on the feet with munhoz and expect to win, and he doesnt have the wrestling to take him down. From what we have seen in his last three fights he hasnt come very close to finish anyone either so the likelihood of him scoring a tko or a submission isnt high. Doane did fight an even fight with Alcantara, and he also did finish issa which is very good bjj practitioner so this is def the area where Doane excels at but, he didnt fight close to alcantara because of his boxing, it was first and foremost because he did take alcantara down, something that wont happen in this fight.

This is a max bet for me because the odds should be 1.38, not 1.54. Also because Munhoz has advantages both standing and on the ground and most of all because Munhoz has been consistent. Also consistently fighting tough competition and fought close and not made an ass out of himself in any shape or form. If you take a look at the top 10 in the ufc bantamweight div: http://www.ufc.com/rankings?id=, where would you put rivera and munhoz? Probably # 10 and 11 IMO. Im not sure where i would have put Doane, but with loss over sanders, alcantara and a split against the now cut brimage, probably closer to top 20-25 range. So expect a decisive victory for the young punisher here.

[bjpenn85]

You are so cheap you copy Josh with his "knows" thing. Be original, be clever!

I agree, just out of boredom and laziness. I will be original after this.

[CaptChaos145]

I have Dos Anjos in a few small parlays. His line should get better closer to fight time. Right now you have to risk too much to win a little. You also won't see Eddie at better odds so jump on him now if you want him.

Eddie is past his prime imo but he's a winner and he's training back home in North Jersey these days and I think he likes it. RDA is a beast though.

[JIBBBY]

Eddie is not beating RDA.. End of story.. Have fun losing your money fellas..

[Sato]

Eddie is not beating RDA.. End of story.. Have fun losing your money fellas..

I agree. Anjos is too vicious for Eddie.

[bjpenn85]

Im not expecting to win on Alvarez. I will be more or less shocked to see him win actually. Thats why you see 1 freakin unit on this bet, 1 unit, not a penny more.

[bjpenn85]

Munhoz line falls, lies on 1.42 to now. The betting community finally woke up, dont expect the line to ever get back to 1.54. Sorry guys..

[PaperTrail07]

Had Iceland -1 +3050.....tell me I didn't have a chance.....

Its to desire and will to win. Its the experience of high level fights for many years, the fighter iq. I think Dos anjos rightfully is the favourite but not -430, maybe -260-280. I will be a little surprised to see alvarez come through here, but i always am everytime underdogs actually win. Cashed on Iceland yesterday at +850, i never believed they actually could win..

[PaperTrail07]

I have to agree -430 is a little silly...

[bjpenn85]

Had Iceland -1 +3050.....tell me I didn't have a chance.....

Your insane to make that bet, congrats.

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

1 units on Belal Muhammed @ 1.95 to win - 1.9 units

Both like to strike one is a tad bit better than the other, heres why. Whos winning striking exchanges in MMA, boxers or kickboxers? Stipe miocic - boxer, frankie edgar - boxer. Nate diaz - boxer. Why do they win? Because they got better movement, better judge of distance, better accuracy, sometimes also a better defence to go along with it.

In this matchup Muhammed got the better boxing and likely the quicker hands. That doesnt bode well for Jouban who needs to be the better striker to win this battle. Muhammed easily stuff takedowns, and also is a college wrestler. However, fight may be closer than i expect, and this is Muhammeds first fight, so its not a lock by all means.

All in all, i think Muhammed will establish his range, and win against a very game but defensive questionable Alan Jouban.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Adding:

1 units on Belal Muhammed @ 1.95 to win - 1.9 units

Both like to strike one is a tad bit better than the other, heres why. Whos winning striking exchanges in MMA, boxers or kickboxers? Stipe miocic - boxer, frankie edgar - boxer. Nate diaz - boxer. Why do they win? Because they got better movement, better judge of distance, better accuracy, sometimes also a better defence to go along with it.

In this matchup Muhammed got the better boxing and likely the quicker hands. That doesnt bode well for Jouban who needs to be the better striker to win this battle. Muhammed easily stuff takedowns, and also is a college wrestler. However, fight may be closer than i expect, and this is Muhammeds first fight, so its not a lock by all means.

All in all, i think Muhammed will establish his range, and win against a very game but defensive questionable Alan Jouban.

Gotta disagree with you on this one. Can't compare a guy with 0 UFC fights to some of the top boxers in the game. Jouban starches guys who are not top 15 at WW. He lands 5.16 SS/min so it's unlikely that he gets outstruck in this matchup.

Who knows, maybe this Muhammad guy is the next big thing but with only 3 finishes in 9 fights against regional guys, I doubt it. Crazy to take him as a favorite against someone with a good UFC record, especially if you think the fight will play out mostly on the feet.

Jouban by Round 2 TKO

[terpkeg]

My biggest concern for Alvarez is his chin finally giving way. Off the top of my head, he was flash dropped by Dida Amade, Joachim Hansen, Crusher, Huerta and Chandler and was definitely wobbled by Goat Thompson, Patricky Pitbull and I think Cerrone. He has taken damage in other fights as well.

He has always shown the ability to get out of tough situations grappling outside of the quick Aoiki heel hook and RDA doesn't not seem to have that explosive fight ending sub game, so a sub would suprise me unless it is brought on by damage inflicted like the Chandler sub which might as well have been a TKO.

Eventually the chin will go but despite being hurt so often on the feet, I believe he is a better technical striker than all of the aforementioned (he went on to finish most of them), he just always fought so recklessly. He seems to have removed that reckless nature from his game. I attributed that to the fact that he fought so long without being in the UFC that he put much pressure on himself to win once he got there to prove he belonged. Now that he made it to the pinnacle, it wouldn't surprise me to see him loosen up some this fight. I expect fireworks in round one. That may be his downfall. In any event, I have never been this excited for an RDA fight.

[bjpenn85]

Gotta disagree with you on this one. Can't compare a guy with 0 UFC fights to some of the top boxers in the game. Jouban starches guys who are not top 15 at WW. He lands 5.16 SS/min so it's unlikely that he gets outstruck in this matchup.

Who knows, maybe this Muhammad guy is the next big thing but with only 3 finishes in 9 fights against regional guys, I doubt it. Crazy to take him as a favorite against someone with a good UFC record, especially if you think the fight will play out mostly on the feet.

Jouban by Round 2 TKO

Not so sure Steve carl is only a regional guy? He finished him. How much did those numbers matter when he fought tumenov? I think youre trapped, free yourself a bit. Let your thoughts flow.

1. So all fighters loose their ufc debut? Not really, a lot of prospects actually win, i have put Muhammed in that category.
2. Yes you can absolutely point to trends in mma. Im not saying he is frankie edgar. That would be wrong on many levels.
3. Why do jouban win fights by tko....Walsh, Oreilley, baczynsky. Some top level contenders there, probably eating lobster with Dana White right now.
4. Nikolas Musuoke went three rounds with tumenov, while Jouban was immediately blasted, why?

Muhammed is the better striker, better defence, better range, quicker, but how large is all of those advantages combined, and how will it play out? I mean thats hard to say, but muhammed doesnt get hit a lot and he has crazy good judge of distance so i doubt jouban can hit him to the point he can finish him. I believe the opposite will happen if anything. He is more solid as a striker than jouban although havng only a couple of finishes. He doesnt care to finish, he wont put himself in danger like jouban. That doesnt take anything away from his tehcnical ability. Not 1 %.

I would watch this: https://www.ufc.tv/video/belal-muham...rl-titan-fc-38

[Mxs1332]

BJ - out of respect for your love of Pedro, i decided to include him in a parlay with a few of my favs

0.5u to win 2.5u

Pending	5 Team Parlay
									Pending	7/7/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1002 Rafael dos Anjos -370* vs Eddie Alvarez
									Pending	7/7/16 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1702 Pedro Munhoz -225* vs Russell Doane
									Pending	7/8/16 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1002 Joanna Jedrzejczyk -140* vs Claudia Gadelha
									Pending	7/9/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jon Jones -275* vs Daniel Cormier
									Pending	7/9/16 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1202 Miesha Tate -270* vs Amanda Nunes

Thank you and thank me

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

Cancellation of 5 unit on Hunt.


- Hunt will be taken down
- Hunt wont get up
- Brock doesnt have that bad chin
- Brocks top control of randy, frank mir, carwin etc is more than enough to control hunt once taken down.

Im not risking 5 units with a small chance of a KO. Its not like Brock is willing to strike with Hunt for 1 sec. People are shouting Mark Hunt KO, and ring rust. But Brock came into the ufc without any experience in MMA. He still won the belt. He will take Hunt down, and after that who knows what will happen. Im out.

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

1.2 units on Moraga/W.Brooks @ 2.0 to win - 1.2 unit

Will add more on this play later.

[bjpenn85]

Final bets UFC FIGHT NIGHT 90: DOS ANJOS VS ALVAREZ

10 units on Pedru Munhoz @ 1.54 units to win - 5.45 units
1 unit on Alvarez @ 4.75 units to win - 3.75 units
1 units on Belal Muhammed @ 1.95 to win - 0,95 units

Best way to play this card is to let Munhoz win, and then limp in money on + money odds, live bets and other potential winners you got. Alvarez is probably waste of money. One have to be realistic here, the level of opposition both fighters have faced is just different. Dos Anjos is not as arrogant as Rockhold and doesnt really have any big holes. Maybe he actually is deserving of being -500. However, muhammed is very good, so people should def watch out for him. Let Jouban tie off in round one and then after that get picked apart. Jouban is vicious no doubt, but he is equally defensively flawed. I think people sleeping a bit on Muhammed, who comes in at even odds against jouban? That should make you pay full attention to this man. From interviews he also appear clear minded and intelligent, only concerns is that the man is muslim and is having ramadam like a motherfacker, just horrible gameplanning. And short notice as well. These religious people, what can you say...just a bunch of idiots.

[latarianmilton]

Belal has the better hands but he is hittable and he likes to hang around at kicking range, that's where Jouban will blast him.

[bjpenn85]

He is not hittable, but he is not perfect, lacks killer instinct, probably some bjj skills. Kicks, almost none existing in his game, so you may rip this guy apart, but im not sure hitability is the where he comes to short.

Tape of that hit ability shit?