[GoBlue77]

bisping is going to win.

[bjpenn85]

bisping is going to win.

How do you see him win? By decision?

[lokihayze]

Bj I
Just put a massive post up (forgive spelling mistakes it's 1 am and I'm screwing up left right and centre with texts and post alike at this hour man lol)
This is what I said :
I'm excited about this fight because I think bisping and faber are too totally overlooked underdogs here.
I've won big on underdogs before (lost as well) but I think at least one of them spells an upset, if not two of them.
Dom cruz has barely fought in 4 years. He's had 2 ACL knee repairs and the recovery than comes with it. People say he looked better than ever against tj but that's not exactly true. Tj kept trying to load up on his kicks which Dom would move out of the way of.
If you haven't noticed or can't remember, rewatch the fight you'll see what I mean. Instead of peppering him with strikes, knees and elbows to get in closer, he was looking for the big long range KO. Faber knows that's not how you beat Dom, Dom is tricky and even Rogan was saying mid fight you can't load up on the kicks like this and questioning why tj was doing it.
Anyway, if you watch the way Dom moves in 2011 versus the TJ fight he HAS gotten slower. Go and watch the fights on a laptop and an iPad for instance next to each other and watch how quick he moved in 2011 compared to now.
Doms training partners aren't as high caliber as urijahs either NOR do they have a close brotherly bond with him and want him to succeed the way the TAM fighters do. Urijah has Cody no love who Is a boxing wizard in his camps along with mendes, master thong and a plethora of UFC up and coming greats while cruz's alliance MMA has middle of the range fighters (no disrespect intended) like bec Rawlings, cat zingano etc etc you get the drift.
Dom doesn't seem to get on with many people as his huge ego and borderline Aspergers turns people off him. He likes people around him who are under him where as Urijah wants people to achieve greatness and is proud of his fellow fighters and friends.
So you have two totally different people who other people react to in completely different ways, people like to hang with Urijah where as they tolerate cruz.
I have a point to all this as you will shortly see.
People say Urijah isn't progressing as a fighter so let's examine that. If you look at the Frankie Saenz fight he actually has a newish tool he didn't implement like before when he fought Dom. Elbows. He gets in close and as they're holding him he starts swinging the elbows and FOOTWORK!
He's obviously taken a few classes from our pal Cody.
He's still light on his feet and moves around like before only now he's smashing them inside the clinch with elbows and he is harder to hit if you look at the way is footwork has evolved and his head movements.
Ok now let's move on to Dom. He's got his same game he's had only now he's more cautious obviously because of his weak knees which can be damaged again quite easily.
He admitted after the TJ foot he injured his foot and he was cagey about it BUT we Know he rolled his foot and it was a bad sprain. The problem with injuries on your legs like this is they fix one thing and it's like a domino effect from then on. They fixed my feet when I was a teenager narrowly as a result it affected my knees and for the first time ever I started dislocating my knee randomly and a specialist told me that's common. You break your foot and get it repaired for instance and it's common for knee problems to surface because your body is used to walking a certain way and then you Throw it off a bit by adjusting the way you walk to accomodate a break, ripped tendon etc and then your knee will be affected Kwim? My specialist said to me I haven't used and relied on my knee and surrounding muscle as much as I did after they did my feet, so it's years behind the rest of my body as far as development goes.
So I'm not surprised doms first fight his knee held out but he rolled his foot and got a sprain. Story of my life. Specialists said it happens to nearly every case they see.
Anyway, doms NOT as fast as he used to be and tj would have won that split decision if he had stopped trying to load up and instead gone in hard at him throwing combinations and getting in close.
Dom won't want to get Urijah on the ground as much as he did TJ because faber is a fantastic wrestler and submission artist, Dom won't want to be submitted again no doubt and will be more hesitant to scramble with faber because of that, especially after experiencing a loss to faber via sub previously. So Dom will want to keep it on the feet and do his usual hit, duck and run. Problem is, faber was always getting him on the way out last time (check the tape) and now he's got those evil elbows which he seems VERY efficient with.
His timing and striking has come along as far as accuracy and Cody is very much partly responsible for that.
No love stood 31-1 as a boxer before hitting MMA full time.
So doms legs are his weakness BUT not just his knees, his feet. His base to work from. I'm speaking from extensive personal experience, from talking to others like me doing rehab and specialists I had to see every week for 12 months after.
Urijah is going to target his legs via taking him down or kicks, and keep in mind his feet are now weaker now to begin with. He will be easier to take down, crank a submission and wrestle with as well as he wont be able to bounce around AS easily. You can see this in the fight with Tj compared to 2011 with Urijah.
Tj's attack centred on him kicking and punching at his head, he can still move his head around like a meerkat it's his legs which are the issue.
Take downs for Dom are a huge risk as he is at least 10x more likely to blow his knee out again as what another fighter are in the same position.
If Urijah sweeps him and takes him
Down a few times his legs are going to be SHOT, wrestlers are the WORST to go against with a bad knee. Mendes ripped Conors ACL off too in their fight. It's rough on the knees both from the angle that you target them for a take down, and to fight the take down you have to use your knees a lot to get back up.
Tj's game plan centred around targeting his head because as Dom moved to the left (as is instinctive for him) in theory Tj's kick should have been there waiting for him which would have been a highlight reel knockout. I think even rogan mentions this in the Tj-cruz fight.
The thing is, doms head is going to be the worst place to try hit as he has great reflexes and can move quick DESPITE his previous injuries and he doesn't have injuries from his torso up. However fabers skill set is text book what you'd need to beat Dom. Leg kicks, take downs and elbows on the way out when Dom comes in for his hit and run routine.
Faber is a live dog and at the odds he's paying, worth a wager.
Next we have bisping. Now if you set up two screens, two laptops or whatever side by side and watch bisping fighting anyone including Luke and then Luke fighting anyone even Weidman, Luke is NOT quick and not as quick as bisping.
Best bet is to sit Weidman/ rockhold and bisping/silva next to each other and watch the tape. Bisping keeps up with silva's movements and often OUTclassed him as far as quick reflexes go.
Bisping is quick and rockhold really isn't.
He came into the rockhold fight with an eye Injruy AND he got head butt in the SAME eye early on by rockhold and it cut open.
Luke also overreacts when he gets tagged. Every single time he gets tagged he comes lunging head over hips just like Aldo did when Conor knocked his head off.
Go and have a look at the bisping fight with him and every time bisping gets him a good one he rushes at him throwing wildly.
Bisping also keeps himself close enough to stop Luke really teeing off on him with the kicks too. As a wrestler Weidman needed room to shoot but bisping likes to get inside the pocket where Luke can't kick him and where bisping is the far better boxer.
Luke turned down fighting with Jacare too as J said he would fight like and he would put off surgery, Luke said no and said he would take bisping instead and that's because he thinks bisping is the easier fight.
Why would someone who thinks they're the best want the easiest fight?
Bisping wants the best fighters, Luke wants the best chance of keeping his belt.
Not sure if Luke is lying about a leg Injury which is likely as it seems stupid to admit to having an injury and not being able to kick, BUT if he does have an Injury and can't kick as well, consider the fact that when he was at 100% bisping kept catching his kicks :/ and so if all he really has is his footwork, boxing and ground game and no kicks, then bisping should be a solid bet here as he has the better ground game according to some, better footwork, he's quicker and he's a better boxer.
Food for thought anyway, I'm going to throw them both in a few parlays.

[bjpenn85]

Bisping catched Rockholds kick. Then 2 min after tried to do the same and got KOd by the same leg kick he tried to catch. Im not sure if you make sense. Everything you say here is a bit of biased towards bisping. Bisping may win, but not more than 2 out of 10 times. I will rather stick to the guy that wins those 8 out of 10 times.

You dismiss cruz performances and end up having faber as a live dog. Ok, so why do faber loose every single title fight?

Coincidence?

[mdunlap3]

nice hit on ortega buddy

[bjpenn85]

Event result: -5.12 units

Results since 7th. may 2016: +15.13 units/

I shouldnt have played Cole Miller or Brian Ortega. I didnt see Clay Guida implenting a sprawl and brawl strategy. He obviously made a smart strategy avoiding the potential for getting submitted. Cole Miller just looked awful. A bit suprising to me that he looked so bad. Betting mediocre fighters may result in mediocre result. You get what you give ill guess. On the the next.

[GoBlue77]

bisping is going to win.

nice hit on t-city brother. i had him as well. easy money

[bjpenn85]

nice hit on t-city brother. i had him as well. easy money

Suprisingly, Bisping was way easier.

[CaptChaos145]

Event result: -5.12 units

Results since 7th. may 2016: +15.13 units/

I shouldnt have played Cole Miller or Brian Ortega. I didnt see Clay Guida implenting a sprawl and brawl strategy. He obviously made a smart strategy avoiding the potential for getting submitted. Cole Miller just looked awful. A bit suprising to me that he looked so bad. Betting mediocre fighters may result in mediocre result. You get what you give ill guess. On the the next.

I got lucky with Ortega but Cole killed me. He looked flat. He almost pulled off the arm bar and that would have saved my night.

I also needed the Bisping/Luke fight to go past 1 round preferably 1 1/2 rounds since I had bets on both.

[CaptChaos145]

nice hit on t-city brother. i had him as well. easy money

No that was not easy money. Ortega was losing that fight. We got lucky with the late KO.