[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Spike, 9 p.m. ET
Rafael Carvalho vs Melvin Manhoef (for middleweight title)
Pat Curran vs Georgi Karakhanyan
Dan Charles vs Augusto Sakai
Alexis Dufresne vs Marloes Coenen
Joey Beltran vs Chase Gormley

Spike.com, 6:30 p.m. ET
Marcin Held vs Dave Jansen
Tyler Freeland vs Joe Hamilton
Marloes Coenen vs Alexis Dufresne
Veta Arteaga vs Jackie Vandenburgh
Hamilton Ash vs Vince Morales
Casey Johnson vs Brendon Raftery
Scott Thometz vs Josh Tyler
Will Noland vs Sean Powers
Erick Cronkhite vs Ricky Steele
Olly Bradstreet vs Jesse Brock

[JIBBBY]

I'm really hoping props come out for this event......

Combat press preview/predicitons.. Best write up out so far IMO...



FW: Pat Curran (21-7) vs. Georgi Karakhanyan (24-5-1)

Curran has had an interesting last few years after rising to the become one of the best featherweights on the planet. He has gone just 2-3 in his last five fights and will look to get his first winning streak going since 2013. In this five-fight span, Curran has faced some tough names, including Patricio Freire, Daniel Weichel and current reigning champion Daniel Straus. Curran even immediately redeemed his loss to Straus in his next fight with a fifth-round submission victory.

After being one of the more dominant fighters on the Bellator roster and knocking out Joe Warren in one of the scariest ways imaginable, Curran has struggled to pull it together against the top of the division. He has a strong wrestling base and good striking to help set up his takedowns. Curran has been very successful in both departments. He does carry power, too, as both Warren and Marlon Sandro have found out. Curran also doesn’t just use his wrestling to coast to victory. Instead, he actually looks to make moves, land with ground-and-pound and threaten with submissions to help move the fight along.


Karakhanyan is the same way. He has a very good grappling base supplemented by a strong striking game. Karakhanyan has 14 victories by way of submission and is very good at countering the takedown with a guillotine choke, as Bubba Jenkins found out in early 2015. Karakhanyan fought in December against the aforementioned Weichel at Bellator 147, but he dropped a decision and failed in his quest to get back into the featherweight title mix.


This should come down to the striking. Karakhanyan, at least early on, will counter any straightforward takedowns with his guillotine, which makes the takedown a dangerous proposition for Curran. Karakhanyan is also very good off of his back and should make trouble for Curran on the ground. That brings us to the striking department, where Curran has the edge. He should be able to wear down Karakhanyan over three rounds on his way to a decision nod.


HW: Dan Charles (10-3) vs. Augusto Sakai (9-0)

Augusto Sakai has been something of a revelation for Bellator. He has gone 4-0 in a division that sorely needs talent. Sakai is coming off a victory over Alex Huddleston at Bellator 145, which was only his second career decision win. The remainder of Sakai’s victories have come by knockout, including his third-round finish of Rob Horton at Bellator 94.

Sakai’s opponent, Dan Charles, also enjoys the finer points of the knockout finish. Sakai will be the bigger fighter by a couple of inches, however, and he typically weighs in 20 pounds heavier than Charles. At only 24 years old, Sakai is really looking at a bright future if he can continue on his path of knockout victories.

Charles is coming off a knockout victory of his own over Chase Gormley. The win came after Charles fell via TKO to Bobby Lashley. As was the case against Gormley, Charles can find his best chance at victory with the flash knockout. Unfortunately for Charles, Sakai has yet to be knocked out in his career. Meanwhile, Charles has been knocked out three times.
Sakai should take the knockout victory.


Marcin Held (21-4) vs. Dave Jansen (20-3)

It has been more than a year since Dave Jansen has stepped foot inside the cage. He suffered the first loss of his post-WEC career in his last fight against recently released Bellator champion Will Brooks. Jansen had been on a seven-fight winning streak before the loss to Brooks. Now, he has to look to rebound against Marcin Held, another title challenger and somebody Jansen has already beaten.

Jansen likes to grapple. It has earned him half of his 20 victories. In his last few fights, however, Jansen hasn’t been able to submit his opponents. One of those fights was against Held in 2013. Jansen was the better of the two on the ground. He was able to constantly escape bad positions and turn them into good chances to lay down some ground-and-pound on Held. As the fight progressed, Jansen started getting the better of the striking exchanges, too.


This fight is going to come down to who has progressed the most since their last fight. Jansen has fought sparingly in the last three years, while Held has fought seven times. Held has gone 6-1 while suffering his lone loss against the aforementioned Brooks. Held has been able to beat some good fighters, including Patricky Freire, Derek Anderson and Alexander Sarnavskiy.The improvements in Held’s striking were evident up until his loss to Brooks where he was beat by a better fighter.


The last time they fought, Held was barely 21 years old. He has improved a lot since then, and he’ll avenge his prior loss to Jansen by earning a decision victory in their rematch.


HW: Joey Beltran (17-12) vs. Chase Gormley (12-5)

Much like the other heavyweight showdown, this fight between Beltran and Gormley will come down to who can land the knockout blow first. Both men are UFC veterans who have faced some good fighters in their time.
In a fight that will come down to the knockout blow, Beltran gets the edge. Beltran is as tough as they come, and his fight against Pat Barry showed every bit of that toughness. He was able to take leg kick after leg kick from the kickboxer. As his leg grew more and more swollen, Beltran still marched forward. It was a spectacle to be seen.

Beltran does like to get knockouts. He has won 12 fights by way of strikes, including his first-round finish in his last fight against Lamont Stafford. The biggest problem with Beltran is that he hasn’t remained consistent since his loss to James Te Huna in 2012. Since the loss, Beltran has gone 3-4 with one no-contest.

Gormley is coming off a loss in September. The defeat came in his Bellator debut at Bellator 143. Gormley faced Dan Charles and was knocked out in the second round of the preliminary card. Gormley should have the cardio edge in this fight. The majority of his victories, six, have come by decision. He can go the distance if need be, but Beltran can turn this into a brawl in a hurry.
Beltran should take the knockout victory in the second round.

[JIBBBY]

MW Championship: Rafael Carvalho (12-1) vs. Melvin Manhoef (30-12-1)

Carvalho makes his first title defense against the knockout artist Manhoef. Carvalho likes his knockouts just as much, though, as 10 of his 12 victories have ended with strikes. That includes his title-clinching body-kick knockout victory over Brandon Halsey at Bellator 144 in October. Carvalho came out of nowhere to beat Halsey, but he utilized effective distance control to keep the fight off the mat and his size advantage to really pour it on and defeat the champion.

Manhoef isn’t Halsey. He won’t be looking for any takedowns. It simply isn’t part of his skill set. Manhoef does one thing well: he knocks out his opponents.


To negate Manhoef’s chances on the feet, Carvalho needs to do something similar to the game plan he deployed against Joe Schilling, another kickboxer. Carvalho was able to grind down Schilling against the cage and set up takedowns to grind him out on the ground. Manhoef doesn’t have the strongest of chins, but Carvalho would be best served to avoid putting his own chin on the line.


There are not many avenues for victory for Manhoef outside of a knockout. He owns 28 out of 30 victories by knockout, and that’s the one way he could come out of this fight with his hand raised. The kickboxer is going to need to make sure to stay off the ground and counter any takedowns with a strong shot and counter any clinches with a strong exit strike.


Expect Carvalho to retain the belt in this fight with a strong grappling display to neutralize anything Manhoef offers.

[JC2008]

- Let's do this thing!

[Thrilla]

[Thrilla]

[JIBBBY]

Rolling with this so far -

Carvahlo and Pat Curran in a 2 team parlay at +odds..

Also going with Sakia ITD at +135

[JIBBBY]

Not sure I wanna mess around with Held and Beltran as those fights are really a coin toss in my mind..

Thinking about Held by SUB.. Well Held ITD since that's the only prop option.. Beltran by Ko or ITD too..

Coenen ITD at -190 I like as well but I just don't like those odds..


Game time decision for betting the Beltran and Held fights... If I do bet these fights it will be for small.. I'm not even seeing any prop lines up for the Marcin Held play right now..

[bjpenn85]

Not sure I wanna mess around with Held and Beltron as those fights are really a coin toss in my mind..

Thinking about Held by SUB.. Well Held ITD since that's the only prop option.. Beltron by Ko or ITD too..

Coenen ITD at -190 I like as well but I just don't like those odds..


Game time decision for betting the Beltron and Held fights... If I do bet these fights it will be for small.. I'm not even seeing any lines up for the Marcin Held play right now..

If i remember correctly, Held couldt finish Jansen the first time, and isnt vastly the better striker, so unless Held get the sub, which he most likely aint, the fight goes to decision. And held probably have the edge when it comes to aggression and volume. So i you can get held at +200, its probably a steal. He beat Rick hawn fought close with brooks for three rounds, i mean how the hell is that warrants a +200 tag with a guy who he has already beat in a three round fight? Held was absolutely crap against Brooks, that doesnt shouldnt give anyone confidence in Held.

[JC2008]

Held is -210 or around there

[JIBBBY]

If i remember correctly, Held couldt finish Jansen the first time, and isnt vastly the better striker, so unless Held get the sub, which he most likely aint, the fight goes to decision. And held probably have the edge when it comes to aggression and volume. So i you can get held at +200, its probably a steal. He beat Rick hawn fought close with brooks for three rounds, i mean how the hell is that warrants a +200 tag with a guy who he has already beat in a three round fight? Held was absolutely crap against Brooks, that doesnt shouldnt give anyone confidence in Held.

I agree BJ.. Held has improved slightly with his striking since the 1st matchup though, and we all know Held loves to go balls out for leg locks and submissions if the fight hits the ground.. He's always a real threat to sub anyone in Bellator..

Held ITD is a dice roll though and there is a good chance he could lose to Dave Jansen again by decision in this rematch..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Marcin-Held-47065

[bjpenn85]

I had a major brainfart there, i obviously ment Jansen @ +200

[JIBBBY]

I think Dave Jansen straight at +185 is probably the most sensible bet for value.. Marcin Held couldn't pull off the sub win in the 1st fight and he probably won't here again...

I'll take a stab at the dog in this one after all.. With ya BJ on this, ya talked me into it!!!

$100.00

$185.00

Pending

5/20/16 6:30pm Bellator Fighting 3501 Dave Jansen +185* vs Marcin Held

[blumpkin]

Georgi K looked sucked in at the weigh ins... Not good at all. I like curran to dictate where this fight takes place and get probably a dec win.

[JIBBBY]

Georgi K looked sucked in at the weigh ins... Not good at all. I like curran to dictate where this fight takes place and get probably a dec win.

Yep I saw that as well.. I really like Pat going into this one...

I expect to see the best Pat Curran to date in this fight..http://www.sherdog.com/news/news/Pat-Curran-Moved-to-Blackzilians-Camp-for-Fresh-Start-Ahead-of-Bellator-155-105209

[Thrilla]

Where can I bet against Tyler Freeland can't find odds for early early prelims. This guy is a midget omg wtf hahaha...

[JIBBBY]

Where can I bet against Tyler Freeland can't find odds for early early prelims. This guy is a midget omg wtf hahaha...

Unfortunately and unlike the UFC you will never see prelim lines up for Bellator or any of the other lessor MMA organizations..

[Thrilla]

Unfortunately and unlike the UFC you will never see prelim lines up for Bellator or any of the other lessor MMA organizations..

oke thx jib. Have watched all the prelim weigh ins, mismatches in size and fitness all over the place I wonder what the odds would have been. damn.

Look at Veta Arteaga vs Jackie vanDenburgh min 29:00 - 31:00 of weigh in video. Arteaga is trying to hide her fat belly. LOL

[Thrilla]

Some stats

Chase Gormley (12-5) 6 fights by decision

Joey Beltran (17-12) 10 fights by decision

We are getting + money odds for under 2.5 rounds and maybe fight no decision.Value?

[JIBBBY]

Some stats

Chase Gormley (12-5) 6 fights by decision

Joey Beltran (17-12) 10 fights by decision

We are getting + money odds for under 2.5 rounds and maybe fight no decision.Value?

Tricky fight to bet.. I figured go small and go for the home run hit... I'm not confident at all with this play but it made the most sense to me for the value.. My only play on this fight below..

My logic -

Gormley was just KO'd in his last fight and 4 or his 5 losses were by KO..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Chase-Gormley-22247

Joey Belton has had 12 of his 17 wins come by way of KO..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Joey-Beltran-21219

$50.00

$200.00

Pending

5/20/16 9:30pm MMA Props Fighting 3305 Beltran wins inside distance +400* vs Not Beltran inside distance

[Thrilla]

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/ufc/...wdown-a-72464/

[Thrilla]

hahaa did you see Tyler Freeland?

[JAKEPEAVY21]

hahaa did you see Tyler Freeland?

borderline hate crime on a midget

[JIBBBY]

Don't upset the midgets fellas!! Game time coming up..

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Don't upset the midgets fellas!! Game time coming up..

I remember wrestlemania 3, king kong bundy splashed a midget...lord littlebrook IIRC

[bjpenn85]

Do anyone have a link to the event?

[JC2008]

I remember wrestlemania 3, king kong bundy splashed a midget...lord littlebrook IIRC

No... Little Beaver!! He dropped the elbow on him, but the other midgets, like his own teammate, Little Tokyo, prevented him from dropping the splash on LB Haha.

[JIBBBY]

Do anyone have a link to the event?

Come on BJ you gotta save these links in your favorites... I'm watching on Spike..

Cric is solid they should have Bellator - http://cricfree.tv/ufc-live-streaming

[JC2008]

Beltran just dropped to +130.

[JIBBBY]

Damn Joey looks small I should have seen this at weigh ins.. I wasn't really paying attention I guess..

Couple of cans right here..

[JC2008]

I love Bellator but holy hell betting on UFC is so much better... Primarily because of the LIVE betting.

[JIBBBY]

I love Bellator but holy hell betting on UFC is so much better... Primarily because of the LIVE betting.

And the fighters..

This is pathetic to watch..

[JIBBBY]

Damn Joey connected in that 3rd.. A little more power and size and he would have gotten the KO.. He was just too small to do any real damage..

Joey maybe won round 3 not enough as far as the decision goes..

Next....

[JC2008]

Sakai is my most confident play.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

wow, big dog comes through