[All_Or_Nothing]

I've got Foster & Copeland. These are probably the only 2 fights that will have lines. Hoping to hear some analysis of the Gaethje vs Foster match.

[JIBBBY]

Let me assist you with this thread All or Nothing... Odds still aren't out yet but we can still break it down...

WSOF Fighting				Money Line	Total Points
WSOF 29 - Lightweight 5 rounds - Bank of Colorado Arena - Greeley, Colorado - NBCSN
Sat 3/12		3001 Brian Foster		+280	o1½ -150
11:30PM		3002 Justin Gaethje		-340	u1½ +130

[JIBBBY]

Combat press write ups (copy and paste) on the main event

WSOF 29: Justin Gaethje vs. Brian Foster Main Event Preview

John Franklin
March 9, 2016
Events, Previews, Spotlight
0 Comments

Justin Gaethje and Brian Foster are just the kind of guys who you always knew would fight. They have “shared space,” which is part of what has led them to their match-up, but they could have been put on opposite ends of the Earth and it wouldn’t have mattered. These guys were born to fight each other.
The shared space was Comerica Theatre in Phoenix. It is where Foster impressively knocked out LaRue Burley on the same night that Gaethje defeated Luis Palomino for the second time. It was also where Foster won the eight-man tournament as Gaethje watched in a suit, scouting who would next challenge for his belt. They also share the state of Colorado as a training ground. Colorado, while it is a big state, may only be big enough for one man to claim the title of best fighter at 155 pounds. The state is also where this will all be settled. The Bank of Colorado Arena in Greeley, Colo., plays host to the most anticipated fight in World Series of Fighting history, the main event of WSOF 29.
The passion and emotion of Foster contrasts with the laid-back drive of Gaethje. The skills are similar and so are the goals. They have reached an intersection of their careers where both men want the same thing. Both fighters are certain they are the man to win and that the win will come on their terms. This is a fight that a serious fight fan cannot miss.
The Champ: Justin Gaethje
The Resume
Record: 15-0
Finishing Rate: 87%
Notes: Undefeated, undisputed champ
Key Wins:
Luis Palomino (twice)
Melvin Guillard
Nick Newell
Gaethje arrived in the WSOF in March 2013. Within three fights, he was competing for the promotion’s vacant lightweight belt. He won the crown when he defeated Rich Patishnock. Gaethje has defended the strap three times. In his last four fights, he has finished Nick Newell, taken a split verdict in a catchweight bout with Melvin Guillard and fought two epic fights with Luis Palomino, the second of which was on a card where Foster fought. The undefeated champion is now staring at what may be his biggest test to date.
Gaethje is a high-level wrestler, but he uses his skills mostly to keep the fight on the feet and take his opponent’s head off. As comfortable trading punches as anyone in MMA, he fights with a belief in his chin and a belief that he will “hit you with his before you hit him with yours” that few can match. The scary part for his opponents is that Gaethje is getting cleaner on his feet and tightening up his striking.
Opportunities for his opponent: The willingness to take strikes. The funny thing about MMA is that you don’t get an email when your chin is starting to fade. It just goes. A punch that you used to eat like your mother’s dinner, all of a sudden has you staring at the ceiling and asking everyone around you what happened. Gaethje is probably too young for his chin to fade, but he does leave openings and it increases his chances of getting caught. Also, we haven’t really seen Gaethje in a lot of jiu-jitsu and grappling exchanges. There could be something there, but good luck getting the kid down.
The Challenger: Brian Foster
The Resume
Record: 25-8
Finishing Rate: 96%
Notes: Seen it all, done it all veteran
who is hard to finish with strikes
Key Wins:
Joćo Zeferino
Luis Palomino
Matt Brown
Foster came into the WSOF in January 2015 and started out with a high-profile opponent, Jake Shields. Shields found Foster’s back and submitted him with a neck crank. Following the loss, Foster looked very impressive in an absolute destruction of LaRue Burley and bounced back from a first-round loss to Joćo Zeferino in the tournament to beat Palomino and avenge the loss to Zeferino.
Foster has been in there with real studs. A lot of them have submitted Foster, but he has held his own at a 15-25 level for many years. He has a ton of experience and can win a fight a lot of different ways. Of his 25 wins, 12 came by knockout or TKO, 12 were submissions and one went the distance. This man is not interested in the judges’ opinions on his fights. His philosophy is to kill or be killed, just like Gaethje. He’s almost impossible to finish, too.
Opportunities for his opponent: Foster can be had on the ground. He has been submitted in a variety of ways. It’s Foster’s willingness to take chances that sometimes gets him in trouble. He has a belief in his ground game that sometimes pays off, like it did against Matt Brown in the UFC, and sometimes doesn’t, as was the case in his first fight with Zeferino.
Foster’s Thoughts on Gaethje
“Aggressive. Always stepping forward; brings the fight to you. If you are standing in front of him, you are going to take some punishment. If you initiate confrontation, he’s gonna play counter punch with you and he’s gonna land and he’s gonna be strong and he hits hard.”
Gaethje’s Thoughts on Foster
“Experience. He’s got a lot of experience. He’s fought some huge names. He’s ran in there with some of the best [and] beat some of the best. Hasn’t been knocked out much, and that’s what I’m looking for: I really want to knock him out.”
Fight Analysis
This is a fight fan’s dream. These two guys are looking to go in there and finish. They are both fully aware that this is a fight that will have an impact on their legacy. Gaethje has been running through everyone. Foster is on a nice winning streak. Each fighter’s confidence is high, and they are looking to make a statement on a weekend that is light as far as MMA goes.
Foster most likely has the better jiu-jitsu, but we haven’t seen Gaethje’s ground game. The problem is whether or not Foster can get the fight to the ground or if he even wants to. Fans are looking for these two to slug it out. They will most likely oblige, but if one or the other comes in with a game plan that include some ground work, this fight could be very interesting. Gaethje, scoring takedowns and looking for ground-and-pound, against Foster fighting off his back might really be the most appealing part of this fight. However, both guys push forward. They like top position and to control the cage. The one thing from pre-fight that may make the fight interesting is Foster’s respect for Gaethje’s power.
For all Gaethje’s skills — and he has many — he doesn’t yet have the experience to set traps for his opponents, unless you count coaxing them into dogfights. Foster will stay away and empty the tool box to find the win. However, Gaethje’s power is a real game-changer. If the champ lands one, everything goes out the window.
Foster is a huge jump in competition and skill set for Gaethje, and the strategy Foster brings to the table is going to be a lot to overcome. However, the old fight axiom that everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth is always on the table when Gaethje is the one doing the punching.

[JIBBBY]

Good short vid on the event...

[JIBBBY]

I really hope some props pop up for the main event before fight time!!!!...

I'd hit Justin Gaethje by ko.. 15-0 and 12 of those wins come by KO.. This guy has serious power.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Justin-Gaethje-46648

I would also try to hedge with Brian Foster ITD if the odds are good because this guy has only gone to decision once in his 32 pro fights.. He's a big time finisher himself...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Brian-Foster-17723

The under round bet in this fight might be worthy of a try at +130..

WSOF 29 - Lightweight 5 rounds - Bank of Colorado Arena - Greeley, Colorado - NBCSN
Sat 3/12		3001 Brian Foster		+280	o1½ -150
11:30PM		3002 Justin Gaethje		-340	u1½ +130

I hit this for a benny for starters since there are no props to work with.. I wish it was U2.5 but U1.5 rounds is probably long enough for one of these guys to finish.. I'll gamble...

$100.00

$130.00

Pending

3/12/16 11:30pm WSOF Fighting 3001 Brian Foster/Justin Gaethje Under 1½ +130*

[JIBBBY]

All odds are out now I'll attack these other plays tomorrow.

WSOF 29 - Lightweight 5 rounds - Bank of Colorado Arena - Greeley, Colorado - NBCSN
Sat 3/12		3001 Brian Foster		+280	o1½ -150
11:30PM		3002 Justin Gaethje		-340	u1½ +130
WSOF 29 - Heavyweight 3 rounds - Bank of Colorado Arena - Greeley, Colorado - NBCSN
Sat 3/12		3101 Mike Hayes		+285	o1½ -170
11:00PM		3102 Joshua Copeland		-405	u1½ +130
WSOF 29 - Middleweight 3 rounds - Bank of Colorado Arena - Greeley, Colorado - NBCSN
Sat 3/12		3201 Louis Taylor		+100	o1½ -180
10:30PM		3202 Cory Devela		-140	u1½ +140
WSOF 29 - Welterweight 3 rounds - Bank of Colorado Arena - Greeley, Colorado - NBCSN
Sat 3/12		3301 Kris Hocum		+160	o1½ -165
10:00PM		3302 Josh Cavan		-210	u1½ +125

[JIBBBY]

More on the main event fighters.. Good reads if you wanna know where the fighters are at..

http://www.mmamania.com/2016/3/9/111...jason-high-mma

http://www.mmamania.com/2016/3/7/111...ight-nbcsn-mma

After reading this on Brian Foster I'm rooting for him now.. I still think Gaethge knocks him out cold though...

[JC2008]

I lean Gaethje but that price is ridiculous. Dog or nothing for me.

[All_Or_Nothing]

More on the main event fighters.. Good reads if you wanna know where the fighters are at..

http://www.mmamania.com/2016/3/9/111...jason-high-mma

http://www.mmamania.com/2016/3/7/111...ight-nbcsn-mma

After reading this on Brian Foster I'm rooting for him now.. I still think Gaethge knocks him out cold though...

Why? Foster has never been KO'd. I think the over 1.5 rounds has value.

[All_Or_Nothing]

I lean Gaethje but that price is ridiculous. Dog or nothing for me.

[JIBBBY]

Why? Foster has never been KO'd. I think the over 1.5 rounds has value.

Gaethge is a beast and goes for the early KO's and Foster has been KO'd before by Diego Brandao in the 1st round.. There is a possibility Brian Foster could finish the fight early on as well on the flip side. Something should give early on in this fight as both fighters are true finishers.. That's my thinking with the UNDER at those +odds...

I explained all this in post #5.. It's a gamble though but at plus odds I think it's worth the try..

[JIBBBY]

I lean Gaethje but that price is ridiculous. Dog or nothing for me.

Don't blame ya for thinking that way.. Those odds are stiff.. I can't play Gaethje straight either.. That's why I'm going with the Under.. I may go really small on Foster for like $25 if props don't come out but I honestly don't think he is going to win..

Gaethje should be fighting in the UFC right now.. This undefeated kid at 15-0 is on the rise..

[JIBBBY]

Searching for more write ups.. Not much circulating for this event from what I'm seeing....

I'm gonna watch youtube videos on the fighters tomorrow morning. Place in the afternoon... Try and sniff out a solid dog to play..

[JIBBBY]

A few props came out on the main event..

Brian Foster vs Justin Gaethje - Lightweight 5 rounds - WSOF 29
Sat 3/12		3003 Foster / Gaethje goes 5 round distance		+425
11:30PM		3004 Fight won’t go 5 round distance		-675
Sat 3/12		3005 Foster wins inside distance		+345
11:30PM		3006 Not Foster inside distance		-515
Sat 3/12		3007 Foster wins by 5 round decision		+915
11:30PM		3008 Not Foster by 5 round decision		-1865
Sat 3/12		3009 Gaethje wins inside distance		-240
11:30PM		3010 Not Gaethje inside distance		+173
Sat 3/12		3011 Gaethje wins by 5 round decision		+670
11:30PM		3012 Not Gaethje by 5 round decision		-1410
Sat 3/12		3013 Foster / Gaethje draw		+25000
11:30PM		3014 Fight not a draw		-75000
if fight goes to scorecards all wagers are no action
Sat 3/12		3015 Foster (scorecards = no action)		+272
11:30PM		3016 Gaethje (scorecards = no action)		-392

Foster ITD has value as that is his most likely pathway to victory via prop if he is to win, no Gaethje by KO prop though

This fight is 5 rounds. NO WAY IT GOES THE DISTANCE...

[JIBBBY]

Not alot to work with on this event with only 4 fights up on the board and I also won't be home to watch live either.. Posting picks... Gonna just play the props for small straight and on the percentages for value in this one. I could hedge off the 2 straights but decided not too.. I probably should though -

If you wanna ensure payouts then play the favorites straight in Devela and Cavan and hedge with these props below.. I'm getting greedy with my prop play on this one because the - odds on Devela and Cavan straights are a bit steep for my liking to hedge anyways.. Those 2 guys can win in several ways so prop vs prop hedging doesn't work either...

Fight #1

$50.00

$157.00

Pending

3/12/16 10:00pm MMA Props Fighting 3305 Hocum wins inside distance +314* vs Not Hocum inside distance

Fight #2

$70.00

$164.50

Pending

3/12/16 10:30pm MMA Props Fighting 3205 Taylor wins inside distance +235* vs Not Taylor inside distance

Fight #3

$100.00	$130.00	Pending	3/12/16 11:00pm MMA Props Fighting 3111 Copeland wins by 3 round decision +130* vs Not Copeland by 3 round decision

Fight #4

$100.00

$130.00

Pending

3/12/16 11:30pm WSOF Fighting 3001 Brian Foster/Justin Gaethje Under 1½ +130*

I'm also completely gambling on this just because of the odds. This probably loses but had to try it anyways..

$50.00

$172.50

Pending

3/12/16 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 3005 Foster wins inside distance +345* vs Not Foster inside distance

[Sanity Check]

Card needs more Mike Ricci.

All four fights are 1.5 o/u.

Never seen that on a main card.

Contemplating parlaying the over on all 4 fights.

[JoshKnows46]

Card needs more Mike Ricci.

All four fights are 1.5 o/u.

Never seen that on a main card.

Contemplating parlaying the over on all 4 fights.

i'm not betting this card, so take my opinions with a grain of salt, but i could see the caven and taylor fights both going under, if i was to bet id probable play those 2 unders for the same amount, 1 hits and its a small profit to start the card, and then play the main and co main going over both straight bets as well. like others i like a play on Gaethje, but i can't play him at that price becuase of his style of fighting, and i cant play foster because I believe he loses. anything i'd bet here would feel like forced action, so i'm sitting out, good luck guys.

[Sanity Check]

i'm not betting this card, so take my opinions with a grain of salt, but i could see the caven and taylor fights both going under, if i was to bet id probable play those 2 unders for the same amount, 1 hits and its a small profit to start the card, and then play the main and co main going over both straight bets as well. like others i like a play on Gaethje, but i can't play him at that price becuase of his style of fighting, and i cant play foster because I believe he loses. anything i'd bet here would feel like forced action, so i'm sitting out, good luck guys.

Good call.

I don't know what I'm going to do. Sometimes I hit 3/4 or 4/4 on these small bellator, wsof, titan fc cards but the last few have been tough.

I think Gaethje wins also. Foster couldn't hang with Palomino standing and had to take it to the ground. He might have to take it to the ground against Gaethje to have a hope of winning. But Gaethje comes from that strong wrestling background so he might be f'ed.

Looking at the records of some of the other fighters on the card, some of them haven't had a fight that hit the under 1.5 in years. And if they did hit the 1.5 it was against people with losing records or fighters that aren't well rounded and have known holes in their game.

I might just skip it too. The invicta card was the one with the big bucks. Modaferri, Angela Hill and Yu Frey. That was the card I needed to hit but missed now I'm just chasing... blah.

[vinkl]

Foster only needs to beat Gaethje 26.3% of the time for the bet to break even. They're both competent fighters. I'd take Foster because I believe he wins the bout more than 26.3% of the time; therefore, it's +EV.

[JIBBBY]

I have to DVR this event and watch it when I get home tonight .. All good though as all bets are already in...

The main event should be worthy of watching!!.. Foster was in the UFC and fought some very tough guys in the past and Justin should be in the UFC right now..

This main event fight would be worthy of prelim fight on any UFC card..

[JIBBBY]

I've got Foster & Copeland. These are probably the only 2 fights that will have lines. Hoping to hear some analysis of the Gaethje vs Foster match.

Copeland I think wins for sure...

[All_Or_Nothing]

Foster only needs to beat Gaethje 26.3% of the time for the bet to break even. They're both competent fighters. I'd take Foster because I believe he wins the bout more than 26.3% of the time; therefore, it's +EV.

[All_Or_Nothing]

The Foster vs gaethje fight will also go over 1.5 rounds.

[Sanity Check]

Foster only needs to beat Gaethje 26.3% of the time for the bet to break even. They're both competent fighters. I'd take Foster because I believe he wins the bout more than 26.3% of the time; therefore, it's +EV.

If Foster wins 26.3% of the time, that means Foster lands near to 1 punch(25%) to every 3 punches(75%) Gaethje lands.

That's not a recipe for winning a fight, despite what you might think.

[Deceptakhan]

You think foster could win 3 out of 10 fights? Lil risky I believe, stick with the over 1.5

[JIBBBY]

The Foster vs gaethje fight will also go over 1.5 rounds.

I really hope you and deceptkhan are wrong about this..

[Sanity Check]

Foster might win 0/10 fights with Gaethje.

Like I said before, Foster couldn't stand with Luis Palomino. The only way Foster could win that fight is with his wrestling. Gaethje is better standing than Palomino and has longer reach. Based on their last fights Foster's only way to beat Gaethje is to out-wrestle him. That's not likely to happen given Gaethje's strong amateur wrestling background.

Unless Brian Foster improved a lot, or Gaethje is fighting injured with broken bones, Foster isn't likely to beat Gaethje in a kickboxing war and with Gaethje's wrestling being so strong, Foster isn't likely to get the takedown. This leaves Foster with no way to win the fight because no matter where the fight goes Gaethje is likely to be better than Foster is.

Factory X Muay Thai, the gym Brian Foster trains out of has looked good lately. Chris Camozzi and James Krause might be the two biggest names that train out of that gym. There is a chance everyone in that gym is improving. But if you go by their last fights, I would say that Gaethje should be a lock. Unfortunately, the odds are so crappy that its not really worth it in terms of risk vs rewards.

A lot of dogs hit on the last UFC card. But one thing people might not realize is the UFC probably has a much higher percentage % of dog hits than other MMA promotions. UFC's matchmakers deliberately sets fights up where the favorite looks like a lock but the dog hits instead. The Diego Sanchez vs Jim Miller fight is a good example. Diego probably should have been the favorite there but oddsmakers set things up to influence people into betting on the favorite that they expect to lose, so that casinos can make $$$.

Other MMA promotions don't do that as much as the UFC does. There are a lot of bellator and wsof cards where favorites win maybe 3/4ths of the time, whereas the UFC might have closer to a 50/50 split of dog wins to favorites.

[Deceptakhan]

A lot of dogs hit on the last UFC card. But one thing people might not realize is the UFC probably has a much higher percentage % of dog hits than other MMA promotions. UFC's matchmakers deliberately sets fights up where the favorite looks like a lock but the dog hits instead. The Diego Sanchez vs Jim Miller fight is a good example. Diego probably should have been the favorite there but oddsmakers set things up to influence people into betting on the favorite that they expect to lose, so that casinos can make $$$.

Other MMA promotions don't do that as much as the UFC does. There are a lot of bellator and wsof cards where favorites win maybe 3/4ths of the time, whereas the UFC might have closer to a 50/50 split of dog wins to favorites.

good shiet man, interesting

[JIBBBY]

^^ True that Sanity!!!

I've noticed that for years betting Bellator, WSOF, Strikeforce, Legacy, Titan etc.. I can't tell you how many times I parlay'd up all the favorites and won.. I do that alot actually with the smaller venues.. There may be times where 1 dog might hit but usually not more..

Favorites certainly do hit more often then not compared to the UFC.. Invicta even had the favorites hitting down the stretch in that event last night.. I'm not so sure it's the odds makers that plan this that way as I think it's more that the fighters are highly skilled at the UFC level and either can win.. That's exactly why I hedge plays alot..

Funny that you posted that Sanity!! I'm a bit unsure on the first 2 fights with this card but with that being said I'll give this the ole college try anyways -

$60.00	$217.90	Pending	4 Team Parlay
				Pending	3/12/16 11:30pm WSOF Fighting 3002 Justin Gaethje -340* vs Brian Foster
				Pending	3/12/16 11:00pm WSOF Fighting 3102 Joshua Copeland -420* vs Mike Hayes
				Pending	3/12/16 10:31pm WSOF Fighting 3202 Cory Devela -125* vs Louis Taylor
				Pending	3/12/16 10:01pm WSOF Fighting 3302 Josh Cavan -165* vs Kris Hocum

[vinkl]

Foster might win 0/10 fights with Gaethje.

0/10 is just variance. 10 game sample isn't much. If there were a 100 or a 1000 games, I'd expect Foster to come out with at least 26 or 263. A lot of you are overvaluing Gaethje which is a mistake.

[JoshKnows46]

0/10 is just variance. 10 game sample isn't much. If there were a 100 or a 1000 games, I'd expect Foster to come out with at least 26 or 263. A lot of you are overvaluing Gaethje which is a mistake.

10 game sample isn't much, lol well a 1 game sample is a whole lot less,a 1 game sample is what I'm betting on.

[JIBBBY]

^ I also think it's easier to cap on how the UFC fighters might finish fights just because of their lengthy records and the level of competition they faced to date..

Lessor organization fighters like the WSOF basically fight cans and have shortened records so it's a bit harder to gauge their skills IMO.. I think you really have to rely on recent video with the small organization fighters to gauge their skills instead of record trends....

[JoshKnows46]

^ I also think it's easier to cap on how the UFC fighters might finish fights just because of their lengthy records and the level of competition they faced to date..

Lessor organization fighters like the WSOF basically fight cans and have shortened records so it's a bit harder to gauge their skills IMO.. I think you really have to rely on recent video with the small organization fighters to gauge their skills instead of record trends....

Absolutly, but you should watch video of ufc as well. Books sherdog record cap these small events, so watching film will def give you a big edge on bad lines, they did pretty good with this card however, and it's mostly bums, which are more likely to flake out.

[JoshKnows46]

Copeland/Hayes over 1.5 -175 Risking $600 (2 units)
Hocum wins by 3 round dec +445 risking $150 (0.5 unit)
Hocum +140 risking $100 (0.33 unit)
Gaethje foster over 1.5 -155 Risking $310 (1 unit)
Gaethje wins inside distance -245 risking $450 (1.5 units)

[JoshKnows46]

Hocum +140, and hocum by dec + 445, cashed it and cashed it.....I'm not surprised..