It's time to make some paper. I've held out for a long time, but I think it's time to share my 5-star mega-locks with you degenerates.
First pick will be Ben Rothwell. I had to grab him at +145, but if you use a good sports book you can probably grab him at +150 or +155.
Let's take a look at the match-up.
Ben Rothwell 34-9 (4-3 UFC) Vs Matt Mitrione (9-3 UFC)
Mitrione has looked great in his last three outings, quickly dispatching three solid opponents in the first round by (T)KO. Ben Rothwell has had mixed success in his UFC tenure. His most recent outings saw him string together two wins for the first time over a questionable chin and a light heavyweight who couldn't give up carbs.
So why am I so confident in Rothwell? Let's talk about adversity. Matt Mitrione is a STRONG dude with some serious power and just about the cutest dimples I've ever seen, but he has only overcome adversity ONE time in his octagon career and it was against Joey Beltran. As much as I respect Beltran, he had no business fighting at heavyweight and isn't 10% of the athlete that Meathead is.
Rothwell basically comes to fights and begs his opponents to hit him in the face. He took 60 solid punches from Cain Velasquez and was standing up to continue his beating when the ref decided to show some mercy. I'm absolutely positive that he's going to get tagged in the first round and it's probably not going to feel great, but here's where he stands out from the rest of Mitrione's opponents...He's going to keep coming. Matt is an ex-NFL player who is built for quick bursts of energy followed by rest, and if he doesn't get his rest, he's going to break.
So basically, bet on Rothwell because...
1. Mitrione is unproven outside of the first round against quality competition.
2. Rothwell has faced better competition.
3. Rothwell got absolutely mauled by Cain Velasquez in a very grueling first round and his cardio appeared to be solid. He did gas out against Mark Hunt, but it was at high altitude.
You should accept this speculation as fact and re-finance your house to play Rothwell.