[THE_LOCKSMITH]

FOX Sports 1, 10 p.m. ET
Rafael dos Anjos vs. Benson Henderson
Francis Carmont vs. Thales Leites
Demian Maia vs. Mike Pyle
Jordan Mein vs. tba
Mirsad Bektic vs. Max Holloway
Tom Niinimaki vs. Chas Skelly

FOX Sports 2, 8 p.m. ET
Alex Garcia vs. Neil Magny
Timothy Elliott vs. Wilson Reis
Walmir Lazaro vs. James Vick
Beneil Dariush vs. Tony Martin

UFC Fight Pass, 7:30 p.m. ET
Matt Hobar vs. Aaron Phillips

[Jenga101]

War Bendo!

[Bumdeal]

Bektic vs Halloway is going to be awesome.

[Vaughany]

Hoping to get tba as underdog against Mein

[Bumdeal]

tba has no hands

[Wilbo86]

motivated to face his first named opponent though

[getlucky2win]

tba always pulls out of scheduled fights. pussy

[Lick496]

Good card

[JIBBBY]

Parlay it up with Bendo in this one fellas... -288 is pretty steep odds but Bendo should cash in this one.....

[Bumdeal]

Parlay it up with Bendo in this one fellas... -288 is pretty steep odds but Bendo should cash in this one.....

I actually like RDA at this price

[Lick496]

I actually like RDA at this price

as do i

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Maia hurt, Mike Pyle Vs Jordan Mein

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

full card odds out

[Wilbo86]

Magney Opener was value

[firekillex]

ill take dos anjos at +270 all day, 5 rd fight i think he could take this
Mike pyle at +170 looks pretty good for a 50-50 fight as well hmm

[JIBBBY]

So this is the next main televised event that I'll be covering.. Probably take a starting crack at this card tomorrow night.. Love that this next event is not PPV by the way...

[JIBBBY]

Maia hurt, Mike Pyle Vs Jordan Mein

I read that.. Sucks, as Damian Maia can't catch a break in the UFC..

[firekillex]

mike pyle +170
thales leites +130
then might go bendo+max holloway parlay for shitz

[Ron_Paul_2012]

mike pyle +170
thales leites +130
then might go bendo+max holloway parlay for shitz

I see parallel's between the Pyle & Leites matches. Questions to be asked. #1 Does Pyle have the wrestling to take Mein down? If not. Who wins in the stand up between Pyle & Mein? Match #2 Does Leites have the wrestling to take down Carmont? Or vice versa? Who wins in the stand up between Leites & Carmont? Plays that I am considering at this point & time are the following: 5 units Carmont straight. 5 units Carmont via Decision. 5 units Mein straight. 2 units Mein via TKO. No plays have been made at this point. So still open to critique's.

[firekillex]

im taking in account the value more then anything, both fights i could see going either way tbh so i go with the underdog, where the value is at.

Carmont is a beast for a MW and he does have a big body that suits his grinding style, but i havent been to impressed with him lately.. he throws telegraphed punches, he does have strong kicks but Leites has actually improved a lot in his striking over the past couple years, i see him being able to outstrike Carmont to a decision, should be a pretty close fight still.

Then with jordan mein vs mike pyle, i honestly had high hopes for jordan mein, but since joining the ufc i havent been to impressed. He does have a lot of fight experience for being so young, but i see him staying as a gatekeeper at WW, mike pyle is one of the mover underrated WWs in the ufc imo, hes had a lot more high level competition, only losses coming from matt brown, rory mcdonald and jake ellenberger in the past 5 years. This will be another grinding grueling fight but i can see mike pyle roughing it out, at +170 ill take this all day

[Ron_Paul_2012]

im taking in account the value more then anything, both fights i could see going either way tbh so i go with the underdog, where the value is at.

Carmont is a beast for a MW and he does have a big body that suits his grinding style, but i havent been to impressed with him lately.. he throws telegraphed punches, he does have strong kicks but Leites has actually improved a lot in his striking over the past couple years, i see him being able to outstrike Carmont to a decision, should be a pretty close fight still.

Then with jordan mein vs mike pyle, i honestly had high hopes for jordan mein, but since joining the ufc i havent been to impressed. He does have a lot of fight experience for being so young, but i see him staying as a gatekeeper at WW, mike pyle is one of the mover underrated WWs in the ufc imo, hes had a lot more high level competition, only losses coming from matt brown, rory mcdonald and jake ellenberger in the past 5 years. This will be another grinding grueling fight but i can see mike pyle roughing it out, at +170 ill take this all day

Yes. If those are your assessments of both matches then taking the + $ is the correct decision. However, who are your 2 picks if the odds were even in both matches?

[JIBBBY]

^^ Always bet on the fighter you think will actually win the fight!!! That's what I do first and that should be rule number one.. Forget the odds...

If it's an evenly matched fight in your mind and you can't envision a winner either way then go with the guy with the better odds for sure.. That's the second rule..

I really make an effort to arrive at a winner though in these fights even before considering the odds up on the board.. That system of thinking has worked out well for me over the last 2 years when picking straight winners in this sport..

Just sharing...

[Wilbo86]

^^ Always bet on the fighter you think will actually win the fight!!! That's what I do first and that should be rule number one.. Forget the odds...

I seriously don't know what to say to this...

[firekillex]

i look at it in this way, if a fight is basically a 50-50 fight in my eyes, where i could honestly see either fighter winning, the guy with + odds and enough value +130 plus il usually go with him.

the mike pyle/mein fight i see basically at a 50-50 both guys could definitely win this fight, its basically who implements there strategy and shows up on fight night, so +170 on pyle ill take all day...

with Leites im not as confident, but at +130 just enough odds and i see him winning this fight a few different ways still, carmont doesnt really impress me he comes in with the same crap every fight, grinding out decisions, leites can finish a fight and has been working his stand up a lot.


even RDA at +290 id take a stab at with small $$, i see him winning this fight 30% of the time, at those odds its worth a small gamble sometimes, just like last week with formiga and boetsch

[JIBBBY]

I seriously don't know what to say to this...

You don't have to say anything Wilbo..

Example - If the odds are +200 for a fighter that you think might hang but not win, I think ya still gotta go with the favorite.... Can't get blinded by those odds and take a shot and then lose...

OSP was a good example of that..

[JIBBBY]

I'm being a little lazy on this card.. Actually I've been working..

Anyways, waiting for more write ups to come out before I start capping these fights..

I usually start from top to bottom but may go the other way in this event. Hmmmm? Never alot of public info. on the early prelim fights anyways..

[Wilbo86]

Its like this.

There is some real probability of an event happening, X.
There is the probability implied by the odds on offer, Y.
Bet anything where X > Y.

The better you are at estimating X, the more profitable you will be.

That's literally it. I'm sick of reading this tedious bullsh1t.

"Forget the odds" is literally the stupidest sh1t I have ever or will ever read on a gambling forum.

[JIBBBY]

"Forget the odds" is literally the stupidest sh1t I have ever or will ever read on a gambling forum.

If you say so........

I absolutely think when picking straight winners in this sport of MMA you need to not be influenced by the odds up on the board.. My take anyways.. Can't teach an old dog new tricks so you keep doing what you do and I hope ya win... Prop bets and O/U bets are a different story though...

This is not like other sports and should not be treated as such..

[Keyboard Warrior]

If you say so........ I absolutely think when picking straight winners in this sport of MMA you need to not be influenced by the odds up on the board.. My take anyways.. Can't teach an old dog new tricks so you keep doing what you do and I hope ya win... Props are a different story... This is not like other sports and should not be treated as such..

this cant be real, my jimmies are rustled

[JIBBBY]

i look at it in this way, if a fight is basically a 50-50 fight in my eyes, where i could honestly see either fighter winning, the guy with + odds and enough value +130 plus il usually go with him.

the mike pyle/mein fight i see basically at a 50-50 both guys could definitely win this fight, its basically who implements there strategy and shows up on fight night, so +170 on pyle ill take all day...

with Leites im not as confident, but at +130 just enough odds and i see him winning this fight a few different ways still, carmont doesnt really impress me he comes in with the same crap every fight, grinding out decisions, leites can finish a fight and has been working his stand up a lot.


even RDA at +290 id take a stab at with small $$, i see him winning this fight 30% of the time, at those odds its worth a small gamble sometimes, just like last week with formiga and boetsch

I agree, I tracked your bets firekillex in the last few months... You also did great on this last card.. Pound for pound you might have done better then me in that event.. You were what 3-1 on your pics? Mostly dog wins too?.. That's called winning!!!

Keep it up...

Mike Pyle just off memory is more experienced then Mein for sure.. Tough guy and well rounded. Still need to cap that though....

[JIBBBY]

this cant be real, my jimmies are rustled

For me, almost every time I get influenced by the odds which isn't very often I lose.. I gotta stick to my guns.. That's just me.. Maybe you guys think different.. IDK?

[PunisherIND]

If you say so........

I absolutely think when picking straight winners in this sport of MMA you need to not be influenced by the odds up on the board.. My take anyways.. Can't teach an old dog new tricks so you keep doing what you do and I hope ya win... Prop bets and O/U bets are a different story though...

This is not like other sports and should not be treated as such..

no there not.

[Vaughany]

[Vaughany]

I agree, I tracked your bets firekillex in the last few months... You also did great on this last card.. Pound for pound you might have done better then me in that event.. You were what 3-1 on your pics? Mostly dog wins too?.. That's called winning!!!

Keep it up...

Mike Pyle just off memory is more experienced then Mein for sure.. Tough guy and well rounded. Still need to cap that though....

no shit, he only has 15 years on him!

[Vaughany]

If you say so........

I absolutely think when picking straight winners in this sport of MMA you need to not be influenced by the odds up on the board.. My take anyways.. Can't teach an old dog new tricks so you keep doing what you do and I hope ya win... Prop bets and O/U bets are a different story though...

This is not like other sports and should not be treated as such..

So if you think Bisping beats Cung Le, you would play him even if he was -400?