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You are square if you are playing Jacare
The guy is a great fighter, but -500 is outrageous.
Is it guaranteed jacare can take carmont down? Maybe, but it's not a foregone conclusion.
Will jacare outstrike carmont? Maybe, but not particularly likely.
And the intangibles? Power is probably for jacare, but I don't see carmont gassing out in 15 mins, and he's the bigger guy.
Full disclosure: I've lost ~$9000 in the last 3 months.
Last edited by v1y; 02-15-14 at 06:55 AM.
maybe a small wager on Carmont.
If you're going to wager on Carmont, I'd suggest KO +1400. His chin is the only place he's better than Jacare.
Otherwise you're counting on him outwrestling Jacare, being able to hold him down without being swept or being submitted, AND that being enough to win a decision in Brazil. Pretty big parlay if you ask me.
Carmont has size advantage and could wall n stall for a dec victory. But I got jacare -380
Yep I agree. I have a fiver on carmont front kicking jacare.Originally Posted by NunyaBidness
I think the play here is Jacare by dec +300. I think Carmont's strength will nullify a lot of Jacare's techniques. Carmont might even win a round.
Gotta hope the crowd booing doesn't get a seperation every 20 seconds, as well as having the judges count it.
Carmont nearly got subbed by Cedenblad, was outgrappled by Vemola in spots, should've lost decisions to Lawlor and Larkin. Souza should be -800 here IMO. If his chin wasn't a liability I'd say -1500.
Damn nunya taking people to school.
I think this fight will be closer than people think. Jacare should certainly win, but carmont is a tough guy to outgrapple and jacares standup is way overrated. Powerful but wild. Throwing wild bombs like that will probably gas him out. Took jacare by decision.
Just stating my opinion so I can look dumb when Carmont subs Jacare in the first.
Carmont's patience and footwork should frustrate jacare who can only get the takedown if carmont comes forward aggressively, which he wont... With a 4 inch reach advantage, jabs and teeps all day with a few takedowns/ wall n stall mixed in. Carmont has a much better chance than say ogle.
I was all over Tavares vs monsoon as an underdog but the disparity here is far too great to justify burning money. If you take carmont over jacare you are going to lose money. Carmonts only hope is to get this to the judges and get gifted yet another decision.
This is a matchup dream for future champ jacare. Carmont attempting his Tristar point fighting lay n pray strategy will just get him subbed. Standing with jacare will get him KOd.
He won't get the decision in Brazil. I'm on Souza 362. Are you betting on Cage Warriors today bumdeal??
OK but aren't we betting on the likelihood of the fight's outcome (scored by judges) rather than the objective outcome (that he should've lost)? The fact that he won those fights as per the judges needs to be acknowledged if you expect this fight to go the distance again with a similar wall & stall gameplan. Now we can debate whether the Brazilian crowd will go irate, forcing the ref's hand at earlier breakups, or incessant booing which may sway the judges away from awarding Carmont a controversial decision, but you can't disregard Francois's ability to win ugly in the judges' eyes.
I can't get behind an -800 cap when Francois is the ultimate Lithium fighter. He's great at keeping the fight flat and boring which helps to narrow the odds from extremes like a ~90/10 implied odds split...
Obviously I'm including all of those ideas. I'm attempting to highlight that Carmont isn't that great anywhere, and that sort of gameplan is unlikely to work in Brazil as I've already outlined.
If I was rich enough I would be laying like 5k to win 1 here.
Why stop there? Why not dream to be rich enough to lay 5,000,000 to win 1,000,000?
That reminds me, insane limits for these fights on 5D. They let me lay $5000 on Mousasi, and $2500 on Jorge. When did that happen?
Last edited by MD; 02-15-14 at 03:22 PM.
Cant help you there I dont use 5dimes.
And to WB saying that you should consider Carmonts decision winning ability, keep in mind he won those decisions in Canada, now he is fighting in Brazil in Jacares home... You need to factor this into the fight it should increase Jacares chances not decrease.
haha good luck finding a bookie to take that much cash on a fight.
Last edited by rosietop; 02-15-14 at 01:34 PM.
When they realized they weren't scared of you is my guess.
It's not just me, they raised limits for this card for some reason. I sure hope you're right, though.
It's not just me, they raised limits for this card for some reason. I sure hope you're right, though.
Speaking of which,
2/15/2014 11:59 PM Props Fighting 1131 Souza wins by submission* +187 vs Any other result
Risking $100.00 To Win $187.00
Lol.
Carmont won those decision because the bookies won a ton of money and that is it and it is that simple. He has no shot at a gift decision this time because the odds have it where u are afraid to lay money on Souza and will possibly lay it on this stiff. End of story.
Last edited by Thor4140; 02-15-14 at 02:47 PM.
Unfortunately not. My lady is around today and we are going out for vday dinner this evening, will have to watch UFC recorded on fight pass and not going to be able to watch any cagewarriors.
are you on Machida or Mousasi?
Make up your mind you butt pirate
Took me three re-reads to get what you meant. Typo, I was watching a Machida interview at the time.
He means you sneak into other men's butts.
It's only sneaking if you use lube.
Lol this thread is a winner.
Lol
Carmont could have won with some small adjustments.
Like being better, and being someone else.
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Hahhaahhana
Nah
looks like jacare was the RIGHT PLAY after all??? huh??
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