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Eccocide's UFC 106 Picks
Well after some dreadful results at UFC 105 mostly due to ill-conceived parlays using Swick and Riddle, I turned it around with a 5-1 +7.95 units at WEC 44….I needed that! Lets hope some of the good luck continues with this god forsaken card. Also, I want to give a big '**** You' shout out to Karo Paryisan from depriving me of not only seeing one of my favourite fighters (Hazelett, not you Paryisan) but also keeping the money out of my pockets that I would have won fading your drug-addicted ass. Now to the fights.
Tito Ortiz vs. Forrest Griffin
In reality, this is a fight that I should be staying away from. There are SO many unknowns and variables going into this fight that could push the it in either direction. How will Tito respond to the ring-rust after being out due to back surgery for so long? Will his penis fall off during the bout due to the numerous STD’s currently infecting his body thanks to his anorexic wife Jenna Jameson? Is Forrest one more punch to the temple away from being completely unstable and borderline psychotic? I guess these questions will all be answered tonight. As for betting purposes, I will make a play on Mr. Ortiz. I myself have never really liked the man, but I do enjoy his heel-type attitude. As for Forrest, I absolutely despise him. From his consistent attempts to be humorous to his lackluster skills in the ring, there’s really nothing that appeals to me. I’m hoping Tito has gotten himself into excellent shape and that he is telling the truth in that he has been fighting at 60% for the last 3-4 years.
I hope to see some of this dancing as a post fight celebration
Forrest’s takedown defense is nothing special and I see Tito continuously taking this fight to the ground and employing his patented elbows from the top position. As long as he doesn’t gas due to the long layoff, I think he should be OK. The only other factor that bothers me is the horrible black eye that Tito got during training. It could definitely affect his vision if he decides to stand and trade.
My Pick: Tito Ortiz (+120) 1.5 units to win 1.8 units
Antonio Rogerio Noguiera vs. Luiz Cane
This is the fight that I am definitely looking forward to most on the entire card. These are 2 of the top contenders at 205lb even though they haven’t been getting much attention as of late. I think this has FOTN written all over it. Diet Nog makes his long anticipated debut in the UFC, and he has quite the first test in Luiz Banha Cane. I am hoping they have a fan cam in the audience to see the reactions when Diet Nog is introduced. Casual fans will be blown away that Nogueira can lose 45lbs and fight in both the LHW and HW divisions…pretty impressive stuff! The Nogueira brothers really haven’t helped out the cause – they even have extremely similar nicknames in Minotoro and Minotauro….honestly guys, how can you market that!? I think this fight comes down to a couple things. Rogerio prolly has some of the best boxing in MMA. His hands are fast and accurate and he has good head movement. Being a Nogueira, he is also excellent on the ground and should have a big advantage should the fight go there. As for Cane, he has outstanding kicks and Muay Thai. The problem I see for him is that he has a very aggressive style where he consistently comes forward and leaves himself open due to his lack of head movement. Diet Nog will capitalize on this, using his jab effectively throughout the fight. Also, there’s a psychological factor to this fight as Cane has stated numerous times that Lil Nog is an idol of his. Usually when guys fight their idols the shat the bed badly. Lil Nog doesn’t have tremendous power, but it is enough to do a lot of damage and I see him controlling the range with his speed and power throughout the fight.
My Pick: Lil Nog (-120) 3 units to win 2.5 units
Anthony Johnson vs. Josh Koscheck
This should be another exciting fight on the card as the bleach-blond troll doll takes on the African-American hulk. This is one of those fights that can easily go 2 ways. First, Johnson can using his ‘explosiveness’ (as Joe Rogan likes to say) and power to end this one early. Koscheck has shown tendencies to fight to his opponent’s strengths and standing with Johnson will get his ugly mug permanently deformed. The second way this fight could go would be for Koscheck to weather the early storm and use his superior wrestling to take this fight to the ground in the 2nd and 3rd rounds once Johnson’s gas tank starts to putter out. I’m going against my better judgement in this fight and taking Johnson. I’m hoping he has the smarts to pace himself and I’m banking on the fact that he has good enough wrestling and can use his size to keep this fight standing for however long It takes for him to send Josh to dreamland.
Sleepy Sleepy Mr. Troll
My Pick: Anthony Johnson (-110) 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
Phil Baroni vs. Amir Sadollah
I’m not going to get into a whole lot of analysis for this fight. This is more a play against Sadollah than it is on Baroni. I refuse to lay -225 on a guy who has 1 official MMA win on his resume against CB Dollaway. I refuse to lay -225 on a guy who just got knocked out by Johnny Hendricks and is now facing a guy with more power. I refuse to lay -225 on a guy with steps shaved into the sides of his head. Even though Baroni has been brought in as an entertaining sacrificial lamb, I think he has enough left in his tank to lay one big haymaker on funny-boy’s chin. Obviously the longer this fight goes, the better the chance Baroni gets submitted, but I’m willing to take a small chance at this price. Here’s to hoping the NYBA can give one last hurrah to his loyal fans.
I'm with the ladies on this one!
My Pick: THE BEST EVA (+205) 0.5 units to win 1.025 units
Paulo Thiago vs. Jacob Volkman
Thiago has made a name for himself pretty quickly in the UFC by coming up with a surprise knockout against Josh Koscheck and then putting up a good performance against the #2 welterweight in the world, Jon Fitch. Volkman is a much lesser known commodity, but presents very similar problems to Thiago as did Fitch. Volkman is a beast of a wrestler, being a 3-time division I all-american. He also seems to have great submissions from what I have seen and read. The only thing that worries me in this fight is that this is Volkman’s first fight in the UFC and he’s been promoted to the main card. Could the nerves get to him? Sure, but I’m banking they don’t as he grinds his way to a decision victory against the unibrow wonder. Also, how could I really bet against a guy with the nickname Christmas? Santa wouldn’t be happy with me!
My Pick: Jacob Volkman (+160) 1.25 units to win 2 units
Kendall Grove vs. Jake Rosholt
This is a do-or-die match for the freakishly lanky Hawaiian as another loss in the UFC could possibly come with a pink slip. He doesn’t get an easy fight against a pure-bred wrestler in Rosholt. Rosholt hasn’t been all that impressive in his time with the UFC. He lost quickly to Dan Miller by submission and barely beat an out-of-shape Chris Leben with a 3rd round submission. What I especially learned from that fight is that Rosholt’s standup has all kinds of holes and if he plans on spending any time on the feet for this fight, he’s in for a rude awakening. As for the ground, he’s showed susceptibility to submissions and Kendall should be able to slap on a triangle using his vine-like limbs. One other note is that I was impressed with Kendall’s TDD and overall game against Almeida who is much more of a threat than Rosholt on the ground. I have no choice but to take a stab at this price.
My Pick: Kendall Grove (+165) 1 unit to win 1.65 units
That’s all I got. GL to all. Hope this is a profitable night!
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Originally Posted by Eccocide
