[TheCrow]

ok so this morning, more of the props came out for ufc 159 on 5dimes. I'm looking at the +100 for jones/sonnen fight to start round 3. Not sure if i want to play it yet, but i want to see how the line moves throughout the week.

I also see +140 for jones to win by submission. yes jones has the 84.5 reach but the only way that his striking stops chael is a cut that the dr has to stop the fight. His long arms allow him to get chokes in weird angles and i'm thinking that chael won't have an answer for this. I can see how this fight can go very similiar to what happened with ryan bader.

i'm about 75% sure that i will take the risk and not worry about tko/ko win by jon jones which is +145 right now, even though there is a chance that chael gets cut pretty good from elbows. Thinking about the brandon vera fight also scares me into thinking that this prop can win but chael is no brandon vera.

Anyone else see anything enticing for this fight?

[MD]

This thread is now considered dead. Do not reply to it, SBR members. Seriously. From this point on, no one will post except for TheCrow. Everyone who posts from this point on is supporting TheCrow and all of his "contributions" to the forum. Just don't hit reply. No matter what.

Softban is in effect on this entire thread.

[TheCrow]

not going to play that the fight starts the 3rd round at the +100. i thought of the bisping fight vs chael and how they were up against the cage for extended periods of time and chael was not strong enough for him. jones by submission is down to +116 but i'll still be looking to pull the trigger for this. jones by tko/ko is now at +160 but a jones elbow will have to be perfectly placed for the doctor to stop it. I can see how chael gets a cut, goes into a rush, and then get choked out by the arms of jon jones.

[sideloaded]

Crow, you can have my thread, Sbr is dead to me

[TheCrow]

Crow, you can have my thread, Sbr is dead to me

was just reading what gabe said in your thread. Funny how among all the people here who interacted with me, only you and gabe show respect to someone "unproven" like me. I've got to say that whomever the person was on the vipbox chat that stated this was the best forum for mma was wrong. Sure there's a few individuals here that have insight but overall it seems that too many people are here and stay here because they wouldn't be able to follow guidelines elsewhere. Nevertheless i'll continue to focus on my homework/picks for this week leading up to the fights on saturday and that'll probably be it for me.

By the way very interesting what you said about 5dimes and your account timing out. You must really be that good, wow.

[Sacrelicious]

ok so this morning, more of the props came out for ufc 159 on 5dimes. I'm looking at the +100 for jones/sonnen fight to start round 3. Not sure if i want to play it yet, but i want to see how the line moves throughout the week.

I also see +140 for jones to win by submission. yes jones has the 84.5 reach but the only way that his striking stops chael is a cut that the dr has to stop the fight. His long arms allow him to get chokes in weird angles and i'm thinking that chael won't have an answer for this. I can see how this fight can go very similiar to what happened with ryan bader.

i'm about 75% sure that i will take the risk and not worry about tko/ko win by jon jones which is +145 right now, even though there is a chance that chael gets cut pretty good from elbows. Thinking about the brandon vera fight also scares me into thinking that this prop can win but chael is no brandon vera.

Anyone else see anything enticing for this fight?

Well I'm willing to entertain this thread because you actually started it talking about bets, not talking about weight division analysis.

I like the over 1.5 on this fight. It is not a huge wager, I think Chael is coming to fight, and if he can secure a dominant position and even simply hold down Jones (easier said then done, I know), for even a couple minutes, this bet has a good chance of cashing. If you look at the way Jones fought against Evans and Belfort, his style has become a bit less aggressive, though in the Evans fight I'm wondering if part of that was not due to their past, and with Belfort, there was the arm issue. Still though, I do not think Chael gets finished before 1.5 rds.

As for the fight itself, I'm simply making a very large play on Jones straight up, I want to take it for what it is, a bet with a very very high probability of cashing, and not try to over complicate it.

[TheCrow]

Well I'm willing to entertain this thread because you actually started it talking about bets, not talking about weight division analysis.

I like the over 1.5 on this fight. It is not a huge wager, I think Chael is coming to fight, and if he can secure a dominant position and even simply hold down Jones (easier said then done, I know), for even a couple minutes, this bet has a good chance of cashing. If you look at the way Jones fought against Evans and Belfort, his style has become a bit less aggressive, though in the Evans fight I'm wondering if part of that was not due to their past, and with Belfort, there was the arm issue. Still though, I do not think Chael gets finished before 1.5 rds.

As for the fight itself, I'm simply making a very large play on Jones straight up, I want to take it for what it is, a bet with a very very high probability of cashing, and not try to over complicate it.

no aggression from chael on evans and belfort yes, but chael has no striking for jones to worry about. I can see how chael rushes into for the takedown and then get caught in a guillotine. It might not happen right away but those long arms of jones work a lot of wonders.

This fight goes over if chael stays back and i just don't see him doing that. There's no way that he feels he can just stand in front of jon jones and get picked apart because even chael should know that his striking is not that good at all. i also feel that chael is at his own mercy to make sure his face comes out clean enough to do a show on ufc tonight a week from today actually. We haven't seen jon jones on his back but in case he does get there, his long limbs will easily allow him to sweep chael. I'm just hoping there won't be a ko/tko and that's the biggest hurdle i need to overcome if i bet on this match.

[Sacrelicious]

I'll probably end up throwing some on Jones ITD, a portion of what I will win by Jones straight up, so I come out in the black even if it does by some miraculous chance go to decision.

[pouyasophy]

was just reading what gabe said in your thread. Funny how among all the people here who interacted with me, only you and gabe show respect to someone "unproven" like me. I've got to say that whomever the person was on the vipbox chat that stated this was the best forum for mma was wrong. Sure there's a few individuals here that have insight but overall it seems that too many people are here and stay here because they wouldn't be able to follow guidelines elsewhere. Nevertheless i'll continue to focus on my homework/picks for this week leading up to the fights on saturday and that'll probably be it for me.

By the way very interesting what you said about 5dimes and your account timing out. You must really be that good, wow.

[sideloaded]

was just reading what gabe said in your thread. Funny how among all the people here who interacted with me, only you and gabe show respect to someone "unproven" like me. I've got to say that whomever the person was on the vipbox chat that stated this was the best forum for mma was wrong. Sure there's a few individuals here that have insight but overall it seems that too many people are here and stay here because they wouldn't be able to follow guidelines elsewhere. Nevertheless i'll continue to focus on my homework/picks for this week leading up to the fights on saturday and that'll probably be it for me.

By the way very interesting what you said about 5dimes and your account timing out. You must really be that good, wow.

if you find a better forum tell me. I will be moving my services

[Vaughany]

It cant rain all the time

[TheCrow]

i really wanted to do jon jones wins by submission but it really bothers me to think that chael sonnen dropped anderson silva a few times at ufc 117. i know anderson had a cracked rib but the punches that seemed to drop him were that of to the face, not body shots. I know there's probably a good explanation and jon jones won't care about going to the ground but i'm going to go ahead and lay off on this matchup. This fight might go too many different ways and i will not be betting on this one.

[Sacrelicious]

i really wanted to do jon jones wins by submission but it really bothers me to think that chael sonnen dropped anderson silva a few times at ufc 117. i know anderson had a cracked rib but the punches that seemed to drop him were that of to the face, not body shots. I know there's probably a good explanation and jon jones won't care about going to the ground but i'm going to go ahead and lay off on this matchup. This fight might go too many different ways and i will not be betting on this one.

I'm just hitting the chalk on him hard, its one of those rare occasions where the chances or Chael winning are so astoundingly low that I'm willing to lay down a lot of cash on a very steep line.

Jones -1900 is about where I cap him. I do not want to bet props to over complicate this.