[NunyaBidness]

I noticed a couple guys in this forum talking about this book, so I ordered it to see if it contained any wisdom. I expected it would either be by a gambling theory guy, with little real talk of handicapping MMA, or a MMA capper with little knowledge of gambling theory.

Boy, was I wrong. It is neither.

The tricky thing about this book is it much better written than I would've expected. Most gambling books contain terrible sentence construction and seem to ramble on incoherently. Rothman makes his points so clearly that they almost seem reasonable, but anyone with any knowledge of gambling theory will know better.

To highlight some of the mistakes he makes:

- He claims that bankroll management is unnecessary, and you should just bet as big as you are comfortable. No mention of kelly staking whatsoever.

- He bashes the EV model, and claims you should not bet -200 favorites that you cap at -400 because the "margin of safety" isn't large enough. At another point he claims Rory a 70% favorite to beat BJ by decision, but will not take the decision prop at +141.

- He overestimates his edges, claiming Hughes had 0% chance to win against Penn in their third fight.

- He constantly uses percentages linearly, and assumes that the difference between 50% and 70% is the same as the difference between 70% and 90%.

- He claims you should bet very rarely, justifying it by use of the Pareto principle. Only your largest edges should ever be applied. Obviously betting any edges is the correct way to go. 7-11 would rather sell you a 128oz slurpy with 1% profit margin than a 24oz with a 5% profit margin.

- He mentions that anytime you think about making a bet you should sleep on it. "A good bet today will be a good bet tomorrow" I guess he's never seen the wild line movement in MMA.

There are many other mistakes throughout the book.

If we are to discuss his handicapping alone, there really isn't much to go on. He talks about "paths to victory", and gives no way to quantify it. He talks about the 10-80-10 rule about fighter's chins, with no way to quantify it in your handicaping. And he comes up with silly rules like "Never bet against great fighters."

He constantly compares Value Investing to MMA betting; which isn't a very useful comparison. It is important to make low-risk choices in investing because we are risking larger funds and holding them for longer periods of time. In MMA betting, there are another 200 bets available next week.

In summation, this book is not only not good, but would be a negative in the growth curve of any learning MMA bettor. Spend your money on a better general gambling book such as Sharp Sports Betting or Weighing the Odds.

[Vaughany]

ha was waiting for somebody to comment about this guy! I had to laugh the other day when he suddenly posted on his site that he was starting to charge for his picks...only a few weeks prior he said that he wouldnt be charging and was all about free content etc! http://www.bettingonmmabook.com/roth...nsulting-post/

[Sacrelicious]

Was actually thinking about picking up a copy of sharp sports betting,

Also had another book reccomended to be, the title escapes me at this moment, "Analyzing Risk", or something like that, had risk in the title, supposed to be excellent, have you read it?

[NunyaBidness]

That is pretty humorous. Especially since in his book he talks about that you should be betting so rarely, that you may only make 2 bets per year. I'm certain his tout clients are not going to be happy to pay $100 a month to get an email saying "no picks this month". So, he'll most likely break his rule and provide picks on every card showing himself to be a hypocrite.

[NunyaBidness]

Was actually thinking about picking up a copy of sharp sports betting,

Also had another book reccomended to be, the title escapes me at this moment, "Analyzing Risk", or something like that, had risk in the title, supposed to be excellent, have you read it?

Conquering Risk, yes it's terrific. That and the other two books I mentioned are what I refer to frequently as the "Big 3" sports betting books. Read those and ganchrow and you've got 95% of it covered.

[Vaughany]

That is pretty humorous. Especially since in his book he talks about that you should be betting so rarely, that you may only make 2 bets per year. I'm certain his tout clients are not going to be happy to pay $100 a month to get an email saying "no picks this month". So, he'll most likely break his rule and provide picks on every card showing himself to be a hypocrite.

ha yeah you've hit the nail on the head there....that was the other thing I couldn't work out.,..how can he be a "pro" and make people serious money when he hardly ever recommends a play and presumably hardly ever makes plays himself?! Every time I look at his site week leading up to a fight there seems to be a breakdown then a recommended "no play". But hey, I guess you're never losing any money if you never make a play (apart from the $100 subscription!).

Oh and notice the comments at bottom...I used the random alias "Bruce" and pretty sure he's deleted one of my comments that linked to the page I was referring to!

[Sacrelicious]

Conquering Risk, yes it's terrific. That and the other two books I mentioned are what I refer to frequently as the "Big 3" sports betting books. Read those and ganchrow and you've got 95% of it covered.

Conquering Risk, thats the one. Appreciate the heads up, unfortunately I cant get any of these on Kobo, I've ordered Sharp Sports Betting already, will be a week or two before it arrives, I will move onto the other ones after that.

[NunyaBidness]

He claims to be a professional poker player in his book as well. There are no tournament cashes in the world by any Jason Rothman. Not that all poker players play tournaments, but I think its rare for a solid poker pro to at least not have some success there. I am a cash game pro and still have a decent listing of tournament cashes.

[MD]

He claims to be a professional poker player in his book as well. There are no tournament cashes in the world by any Jason Rothman. Not that all poker players play tournaments, but I think its rare for a solid poker pro to at least not have some success there. I am a cash game pro and still have a decent listing of tournament cashes.

I think you're very wrong there. The vast majority of poker pros I know play either cash or SNG's and have no big tournament cashes.

[Vaughany]

are you defining "professional" as the same thing tho? Is it as simple as doing it full-time and not having another job = professional?

[NunyaBidness]

I think you're very wrong there. The vast majority of poker pros I know play either cash or SNG's and have no big tournament cashes.

I didn't say big tournament cashes, I said tournament cashes.

Most professional players eventually migrate to the tournament scene because that is where all the big cash games wind up. You eventually try your hand at tournaments and get some cashes under your belt (a good player should cash in 15-20% of the tournaments he plays).

There are a lot of people who consider themselves pros, who I would not. Kids living with their parents grinding $10 SNGs or $50 NL, don't count in my book. Not having a job does not make you a pro in my book.

I don't really want to clutter up this thread with a debate on the subject however.

[MD]

- He bashes the EV model, and claims you should not bet -200 favorites that you cap at -400 because the "margin of safety" isn't large enough.

In summation, this book is not only not good, but would be a negative in the growth curve of any learning MMA bettor. Spend your money on a better general gambling book such as Sharp Sports Betting or Weighing the Odds.

I agree with most of what you've said, and find Rothman to be a bit dense, but "margin of safety" is effectively just (a particularly large, in this case) MinEdge.

[MD]

I didn't say big tournament cashes, I said tournament cashes.

Most professional players eventually migrate to the tournament scene because that is where all the big cash games wind up. You eventually try your hand at tournaments and get some cashes under your belt (a good player should cash in 15-20% of the tournaments he plays).

There are a lot of people who consider themselves pros, who I would not. Kids living with their parents grinding $10 SNGs or $50 NL, don't count in my book. Not having a job does not make you a pro in my book.

I don't really want to clutter up this thread with a debate on the subject however.

I suppose we disagree on our definition, then. I'd consider someone grinding a 50K yearly profit at low stakes with no other job, who is supporting themselves, a pro. I supported myself playing low stakes SNG's for quite some time.

Also, how often do you play cash games, out of curiosity? Do you play pro, or do you play it on the side with sports betting as your main income source?

are you defining "professional" as the same thing tho? Is it as simple as doing it full-time and not having another job = professional?

That's how I'm defining it, yes.

[Sykes]

What books would you recommend for learning it Nunya?

[hobbesITD]

Thanks for this. What happened to Ganchrow? He doesn't seem to post anywhere anymore.

[Beelzebubzy]

What books would you recommend for learning it Nunya?

In summation, this book is not only not good, but would be a negative in the growth curve of any learning MMA bettor. Spend your money on a better general gambling book such as Sharp Sports Betting or Weighing the Odds.

[omalley21]

If I recall correctly, he charged for picks on Cain vs Junior 2, picked JDS and stopped touting. Nunya was spot on in his op.

[gabe]

He's a 24 year old Jewish kid

[Vaughany]

lol

[gabe]

ha yeah you've hit the nail on the head there....that was the other thing I couldn't work out.,..how can he be a "pro" and make people serious money when he hardly ever recommends a play and presumably hardly ever makes plays himself?! Every time I look at his site week leading up to a fight there seems to be a breakdown then a recommended "no play". But hey, I guess you're never losing any money if you never make a play (apart from the $100 subscription!).

Oh and notice the comments at bottom...I used the random alias "Bruce" and pretty sure he's deleted one of my comments that linked to the page I was referring to!

to be fair, his only pick for the last card was lawlor by ko

[Vaughany]

to be fair, his only pick for the last card was lawlor by ko

yeah I didnt look at last event to be double fair

[omalley21]

He's not clueless. I knew him from another forum. But he's clearly not the most qualified to write the book on mma betting.

[omalley21]

I wanna buy Nunya's book lol.

[NunyaBidness]

I wanna buy Nunya's book lol.

I've mentioned it before, and people probably assumed I was kidding. But, I am working on a book. It's about half done, it's not specific to MMA betting however. It's mostly gambling theory, lots of the examples will draw from MMA betting however.

[NunyaBidness]

I suppose we disagree on our definition, then. I'd consider someone grinding a 50K yearly profit at low stakes with no other job, who is supporting themselves, a pro. I supported myself playing low stakes SNG's for quite some time.

Also, how often do you play cash games, out of curiosity? Do you play pro, or do you play it on the side with sports betting as your main income source?

$50k yes I'd consider that a pro. But most people at that level realize they can make more money by playing higher and higher and that eventually leads them to the tournament scene.

I remember in my early years playing a low limit game with a bunch of friendly college kids, wherein 5 of them admitted that they were 'poker pros'. None of them were better than break even.

I play poker less and less each year, sports betting is more enjoyable and more profitable with smaller variance. I travel around to the bigger tournaments and play there. I will be at the WSOP for 4 weeks again this year, planning on playing 5 or so events.

I have played less than 8 hours of poker YTD.

[NunyaBidness]

Thanks for this. What happened to Ganchrow? He doesn't seem to post anywhere anymore.

He posted a little last year:
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/search/Gan...456-posts.html

[FindTheLock]

if you had an option between three books to read for statistical data and probability, where would you turn? I just ordered three books for brewing my own beer, and I would like to also read about some stats pertaining to gambling while I try to create the worlds best micro brewery. thanx in advance

[more_betterness]

if you had an option between three books to read for statistical data and probability, where would you turn? I just ordered three books for brewing my own beer, and I would like to also read about some stats pertaining to gambling while I try to create the worlds best micro brewery. thanx in advance

Which books about homebrewing? Been doing it for about three years and its a slippery slope!

[FindTheLock]

1	"Designing Great Beers: The Ultimate Guide to Brewing Classic Beer Styles" Daniels, Ray; Paperback; $14.17

1	"The Complete Joy of Homebrewing Third Edition" Papazian, Charlie; Paperback; $11.98 ' "How to Brew: Everything You Need To Know To Brew Beer Right The First Time" Palmer, John J.; Paperback; $12.38

[gabe]

Charlie Papazian? Jared's brudda?

[omalley21]

I brew a little bit as well.

[Fragoel2]

- He constantly uses percentages linearly, and assumes that the difference between 50% and 70% is the same as the difference between 70% and 90%.

I know bit of theory but I'm missing this, can you explain?

Regarding the Poker vs Sports Betting discussion, what I like about poker is that if you're good at it then you have an edge at any time of the day, in sports betting you have an edge only as long as the line doesn't change. This leads to OMFGIhavetomakethebetbeforethelinemoves! and waiting for openers and such... something that I really hate.

[Vaughany]

Charlie Papazian? Jared's brudda?

lol

[Boxscout]

I've mentioned it before, and people probably assumed I was kidding. But, I am working on a book. It's about half done, it's not specific to MMA betting however. It's mostly gambling theory, lots of the examples will draw from MMA betting however.

Based on your posts, I'd read that book for sure. If I'm honest, I'm probably more of a Jason than a Nunya. Though, I recognized most of the stuff in his book that you mentioned as being wrong, my actual bets are a haphazard flurry of parlays and speculation regarding line movements. I'm getting better at it, but still really working by "feel." You write with a great deal of clarity and I think you could convey how to be better at actual betting to even a dyslexic mess like myself. 90% of the time I read someone talking about that kind of thing on 2p2 or whatever, they're trying to sound smart instead of explain and I go into a coma halfway through their posts, but I read all of your posts here and actually enjoy doing so.

[Educ8d Degener8]

How many betpoints is your book gonna cost Nunya?