1. 02-12-13 11:36 PM #1
    fitguy67
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    Just locked in Diabate +203 (Pinny)=best value play on Feb16 UFC

    Just locked it in...

    IMO much better than 33% chance of this one cashing...


    maybe not best value, period...but most-apparent value on a straight-up plus-money ML bet
    Last edited by fitguy67; 02-12-13 at 11:42 PM.
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  2. 02-13-13 01:19 AM #2
    Bagalut
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    Probably I will add a play on Diabate aswell after watching more tape of him.
    I feel like Manuwa will be suprised by Diabates striking technique and Manuwa might gas hard in later of 2nd round.
    At those odds itīs a good play imo.
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  3. 02-13-13 12:41 PM #3
    fitguy67
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bagalut View Post
    Probably I will add a play on Diabate aswell after watching more tape of him.
    I feel like Manuwa will be suprised by Diabates striking technique and Manuwa might gas hard in later of 2nd round.
    At those odds itīs a good play imo.

    this one sticks out like a sore-thumb value play for me...

    win or lose on Saturday, it's plays like this that make money over the haul...

    on the last card, a play on heiron (a similar sort of "against the grain" value bet, but a bit less-so than this one) didn't cash, but the long-term stream of plays lyk this will cash at a clearly greater % than the very-low break-even % threshhold required by the square-leaning odds...McCall was another value play I had that lost

    But on the plus side, Kimura and Maia were also examples of this sort of play (the sort that really goes against your "just win the damn bet" grain)...I didn't bite on littleNog...but that was another set of odds where the favorite was clearly overbought

    i hope we're right and manuwa's power is thwarted by Diabate's crisper technique (and it turns out more like Kimura/Maia than McCall/Heiron)...
    Last edited by fitguy67; 02-13-13 at 12:54 PM.
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  4. 02-13-13 01:05 PM #4
    GigaOuts
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    I have $300 on Diabate too, might add another $300 if odd goes up to +250.
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  5. 02-13-13 04:18 PM #5
    Bagalut
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    I just added a 180€ play @3.1 on Diabate. Lets get this money guys
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  6. 02-13-13 05:23 PM #6
    fitguy67
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    last card there were fully 6 good-value (ie. very-under-bet & very-live) dogs to bet on straight-up ML

    win or lose...McCall, Maia, Heiron, Kimura, Edgar,and LilNog were all worth a shot...(& i didn't even mention BigFoot cuz I really couldn't see how he could win in even the small % of parallel-universes required to make it a value play...but one of those rare universes became our reality in the form of a that unforgettable "arrogant idiot gets what he deserved" episode) )...

    But in THIS card...slim pickens...I see some value with Nedkov and Poirier at current prices...but nothing to start a thread over...

    u guyz discovered any other "hidden treasure", in straight-ups or props-type betting??
    Last edited by fitguy67; 02-13-13 at 05:39 PM.
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  7. 02-13-13 06:56 PM #7
    MD
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    Fully disagree about McCall and Edgar. No value whatsoever in their lines.

    As for value for this card, I would have said Matt Riddle, but good God that guy is an idiot. He's legitimately saying he's going to stand and bang with Che Mills.
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  8. 02-13-13 07:12 PM #8
    Snake_Pliskan
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    Quote Originally Posted by fitguy67 View Post
    Just locked it in...

    IMO much better than 33% chance of this one cashing...


    maybe not best value, period...but most-apparent value on a straight-up plus-money ML bet


    It does look a little tempting.......but you got to be careful betting 39 year old strikers. This ain't Griggs in there with him. If Manuwa touches him, it won't be pretty.
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  9. 02-13-13 08:27 PM #9
    fitguy67
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snake_Pliskan View Post
    It does look a little tempting.......but you got to be careful betting 39 year old strikers. This ain't Griggs in there with him. If Manuwa touches him, it won't be pretty.
    gud point about the age thing...has had a good chin his whole career...only guy to ever ko him was an in-prime Shogun...

    but in this game u can age twenty years in one night...
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