[Sacrelicious]

GSP.

I know its a few weeks early, but I dont think the line will improve, I'm taking this play now. I know its not the most exciting play, but realistically I cap him at -800, and thats being generous to Nick Diaz. Got him now at -470, in my opinion that is a steal.

This will be the single largest play I have made since joining this forum (not including my lame parlay on DC/Josh Barnett, that shit doesnt count).

This one is significantly larger then my usual "max wager", I'm going balls to the wall on this one. Debated taking the decision prop, but in all honesty I dont see the value line for decision being all that much better then the straight up line for GSP, and I dont want to gamble on it.

[nlin]

GSP by DEC is -230 on 5d. Not available on the book youre using?

[Sacrelicious]

Its there, I dont want to take it, espcially with a play this large. If I do, it will be a sprinkle, but I want to simply take him straight up. I have absolutely no faith in Nick Diaz's ability in this fight, GSP can finish it.

[Sacrelicious]

To clarify, if I were simply throwing a unit or two and wanted to take the chance for extra value, I'd take it. But this is a very, very large wager, I'm trying to be as risk adverse as possible.

[Bagalut]

very very large 100 $ wager

[MD]

Here's what I'd do:

Bet GSP straight to such an amount that it would just barely cover your loss if you were to put the rest of the money you're allocating to this fight on GSP by decision. That is, bet big on GSP by decision, then bet enough on GSP straight to break even if GSP finishes Nick. If GSP decisions him, you make massive profit. Given the likelihood of GSP finding a finish (it's incredibly​ low outside of cuts, which a very real possibility in this fight), it's a good strategy.

[Vaughany]

Maxi-bet fellaz

[Sacrelicious]

Here's what I'd do:

Bet GSP straight to such an amount that it would just barely cover your loss if you were to put the rest of the money you're allocating to this fight on GSP by decision. That is, bet big on GSP by decision, then bet enough on GSP straight to break even if GSP finishes Nick. If GSP decisions him, you make massive profit. Given the likelihood of GSP finding a finish (it's incredibly​ low outside of cuts, which a very real possibility in this fight), it's a good strategy.

I was thinking along these lines as well. Might leave myself a bit of window to make some even if he finishes, but yes, it makes perfect sense.

[Rubber Guard]

The only possible way GSP wins inside is by cuts. And it could happen. Diaz has some massive scar tissue and GSP likes to rub elbows in your face. If the doctor says a cut is too much that is the only way GSP wins inside. GSP has no shot in hell of subbing or finishing with a real KO/TKO. None at all. The cuts are a possibility though.

Edit: as I see my boy MD already said this.

I hate GSP and am a Diaz fan. But I really like the GSP by dec at -230. Hopefully it holds and I will play it Saturday.

[sideloaded]

GSP hero

GSP too strong

[DirtyX]

Hope this works out better for you than the last card. I personally don't like the play, especially making a such a large play in this case. Diaz will prob lose, but I cap GSP at -250, and I wouldn't play anything higher, but that's just me. GL.

[Grabaka]

GSP hero

GSP too strong

Diaz Big hero

Diaz too cool

[Vaughany]

Dan 'Ardeee

[Sacrelicious]

Hope this works out better for you than the last card. I personally don't like the play, especially making a such a large play in this case. Diaz will prob lose, but I cap GSP at -250, and I wouldn't play anything higher, but that's just me. GL.

Yeah the last card was an epic fail, but that came after several very good cards for me.

I'll probably end up taking a fair amount on GSP on decision by the time the show comes around.

[eligibletackle]

Hope this works out better for you than the last card. I personally don't like the play, especially making a such a large play in this case. Diaz will prob lose, but I cap GSP at -250, and I wouldn't play anything higher, but that's just me. GL.

Ditto - GL Sacre + others

[BIGDAY]

He's closing out a 15 team open ended parlay for me.

[DirtyX]

Yeah the last card was an epic fail, but that came after several very good cards for me.

I'll probably end up taking a fair amount on GSP on decision by the time the show comes around.

I don't have access to prop plays for MMA so I obviously don't know the odds.. However, I would think you may also be able to hedge with Diaz by Sub or TKO/KO.. Just a thought.. GL to you.

[pouyasophy]

good luck to you...I don't think it's that great of a play... should be -200 in my opinion...Diaz is mentally strong and GSP, well, we all know he's not.

[Sato]

Thats a no brainer.

Im 95 % sure GSP isnt gonna decsion that guy. Hes not gonna finish Nick. Hes gonna toy around with him move around him and jab him or even wrestle him.

Hes not going to finish him!

GSP straight and dec. prop is the way to go. The line suggests you bet an outrageous amount to make a considerable profit.
If my ongoing bets end succesfully Im gonna take all the profits and lay them on my canadian baby boy.

[Vaughany]

good luck to you...I don't think it's that great of a play... should be -200 in my opinion...Diaz is mentally strong and GSP, well, we all know he's not.

Do we?

[Thor4140]

Thats a no brainer.

Im 95 % sure GSP isnt gonna decsion that guy. Hes not gonna finish Nick. Hes gonna toy around with him move around him and jab him or even wrestle him.

Hes not going to finish him!

GSP straight and dec. prop is the way to go. The line suggests you bet an outrageous amount to make a considerable profit.
If my ongoing bets end succesfully Im gonna take all the profits and lay them on my canadian baby boy.

Or even wrestle him? I will assure you that this will be the biggest part of the fight for GSP. Not some possibility that just might happen lol.

[Thor4140]

i actually believe the better boxer in this fight is GSP. He has looked fantastic in this area with great growth. The problem is that Nicks chin will hold up a lot longer than GSP so it would be foolish for GSP to fight him like he did Kos. NIck would eventually wear GSP out in a five round slugging match. Nick leaves a tons of openings but GSP just doesn't have the power to take out a chin like this which eventualy goes in Nicks favor.

[Thor4140]

Do we?

Well he does at least.

[Sacrelicious]

He's closing out a 15 team open ended parlay for me.

Atta boy.

[Kaffe]

good luck to you...I don't think it's that great of a play... should be -200 in my opinion...Diaz is mentally strong and GSP, well, we all know he's not.

Lol! I actually think it is the other way around.

[Beelzebubzy]

Can I nominate posts for most downsy?

[sideloaded]

GSP.

I know its a few weeks early, but I dont think the line will improve, I'm taking this play now. I know its not the most exciting play, but realistically I cap him at -800, and thats being generous to Nick Diaz. Got him now at -470, in my opinion that is a steal.

This will be the single largest play I have made since joining this forum (not including my lame parlay on DC/Josh Barnett, that shit doesnt count).

This one is significantly larger then my usual "max wager", I'm going balls to the wall on this one. Debated taking the decision prop, but in all honesty I dont see the value line for decision being all that much better then the straight up line for GSP, and I dont want to gamble on it.

Nick Diaz is a f-cking can that has benefited from matchmaking protecting him. He already canned out of the ufc once.

ANYONE with mediocre ncaa level wrestling can win a UD against him. His wrestling is garbage.

[Digo]

GSP by dec -230 looks the better play for this fight. Maybe Diaz sub of the night as a backup...

[Sacrelicious]

Diaz is going to get humiliated in this fight.

[sideloaded]

Diaz is going to get humiliated in this fight.

i can taste the diaz fanboi tears

[Grabaka]

i can taste the diaz fanboi tears

Leave us alone!