How does everyone see this playing out and why is waldburger sitting at +180? Seems rather extreme.
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06-14-12 01:56 AM #1
Ebersole vs Waldburger
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06-14-12 02:06 AM #2
It's probably gonna be an entertaining fight, but Ebersole is going to win. I love TJ Waldburger, but Brian Ebersole is not going to lose to him. Not happening.
I think this is a FOTN candidate, but Ebersole wins.
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06-14-12 02:21 AM #3
care to elaborate? How do you see things playing out?
Originally Posted by gabe
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06-14-12 02:33 AM #4
TJ puts on a good fight, throws a lot of submission attempts, but Ebersole defends and beats him up. Ebersole gets the better of him on the feet, and when on the ground, defends well and beats him up. Originally Posted by fosho14
TJ would have to get reaaallllly lucky to catch Ebersole with anything. Ebersole always goes really underrated. Guy is a BEAST.
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06-14-12 02:41 AM #5
I don't think very highly of either man's striking and not sure if I agree that Ebersole would beat him up on the feet. Ebersole has the wrestling advantage, but tj has super slick jitz plenty solid enough to sub ebersole. Ebersole has also been subbed 9 times. I'm thinking that waldburger by submission is something to seriously consider and eagerly waiting to see what the line for that prop will be.
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06-14-12 02:47 AM #6
The last time he got caught in a legit submission was in 2004 by Ed Herman. He has been submitted twice since, but by rear naked choke, and you don't have to be great at BJJ to pull that one off... His submission defense has always been pretty good, he's been caught a few times, but not since the Herman fight 8 years ago... He's improved a lot over the years, too. I believe Ebersole could easily beat TJ and give anybody at 170 a run for their money. Originally Posted by fosho14
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06-14-12 02:50 AM #7
I think Ebersole is going to look to make a statement with this fight... He's going to be smart. He wants a contender, and feels a bit shafted for getting one young buck after another... he was expecting a contender after beating Hallman.
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06-14-12 02:56 AM #8
Not only am I pushing for waldburger but like I mentioned, I really believe he has a great chance in locking up a sub and will be placing a small wager at what will most likely be a great price. We'll see what happens.
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06-14-12 03:00 AM #9
The way he chains and transitions from submission to submission attempt constantly attacking all the while is unbelievable and very under appreciated IMO. Beautiful under-rated jiu-jitzu skills.
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06-14-12 03:00 AM #10
He ain't subbing Brian Ebersole. But GL. Originally Posted by fosho14
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06-14-12 03:02 AM #11
Ebersole hedged with TJ Sub or other way round seems solid to me depending on the odds. Ebersole has spent last two weeks training at Drysdale's sharpening up his ground game...rolling with likes of Forrest Griffin every day. He has also had Ben Stark (American Top Team black-belt) travelling with him all camp (from Thailand to Fiore's in Illinois). Ebersole has a tendency to get in to bad spots...especially the guillotine. He has claimed that he does it on purpose as he is confident in defending, like against Hallman I believe where he got out and proceeded to GnP Hallman to stoppage. Chris Lytle had him in a tight guillotine at least twice if I remember rightly and wasn't able to tap him. CLaude Patrick is also has pretty slick BJJ and had no success. So it's not like Ebersole has only been facing strikers or anything. I think Ebersole will look to keep this standing for majority of rounds and only take it to the ground if really necessary, which is what he's said in other words what he plans to do. I think the clinch and landing knees against the cage will be one of his main strategies in the stand-up. As he's said "once a black-belt gets hit he turns to a brown-belt, once a brown-belt gets hit he turns to purple-belt" and I think this may well happen once TJ get's grinded on against the cage
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06-14-12 03:03 AM #12
Yup, I'm a big fan of his and played him big in his last two fights. I just don't think he'll beat Ebersole, though, at such a big dog price, I can't blame you for playing. I just feel Ebersole's experience is going to play a big factor. Originally Posted by fosho14
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06-14-12 03:09 AM #13
yup--- Waldburger is only a purple belt, but i didn't bother mentioning that, 'cos he's more talented than some black belts. Originally Posted by Vaughany
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06-14-12 03:16 AM #14
He did show excellent sub defense in all three of his last fights, but call me crazy I truly think waldburger offers a very lethal and rapidly improving sub game to anyone he faces and poses much more danger on the mat than ebersole's previous foes. I don't believe in getting too caught up in belt colours (apparently leonard garcia is a black belt). All your points seem valid, and I guess that is why the line was capped the way it is. This is going to be a sloppy fight that I have no idea how to call, if it stays on the feet. What are the chances that TJ can take ebersole down? Or that Ebersole is confident enough in his ground abilities to take TJ down? Thanks for the background info about the training camps. Originally Posted by Vaughany
Last edited by fosho14; 06-14-12 at 03:20 AM.
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06-14-12 03:17 AM #15
He received his brown-belt just before the Hecht fight from his father-in-law! But regardless of belts, yes he has a very high level aggressive BJJ game.
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06-14-12 03:20 AM #16
Yes, I agree, with his rapid transitions TJ has the ability to sub anybody on his day....and may well offer more of a threat than Lytle, Patrick and Hallman did. But as u say, what are the chances he takes Ebersole down? IMO pretty low. Ebersole should be able to dictate where this fight goes, he is a solid wrestler and a very big WW. But of course, all it would take is Ebersole to slip whilst throwing a kick or something and TJ could take advantage. Originally Posted by fosho14
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06-14-12 03:21 AM #17
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06-14-12 03:22 AM #18
glorious! The ability to transition this fluid is rare and a thing of beauty. Exactly the kind of thing I was talking about Originally Posted by Vaughany
Last edited by fosho14; 06-14-12 at 03:26 AM.
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06-14-12 03:23 AM #19
Ebersole on sherdog:
"Im 3-0
He's 3-1 with a loss to Hendricks who is a far superior wrestler to me.
We're in the same bracket as far as the UFC is concerned. I'm not top ten. He isn't top ten.
It's not always a case of guys being BUMPED UP to the top ten. It's sometimes a case of guys FALLING out of the top ten. I'll have to fight a top ten guy that lost to another top ten guy.... That's more likely than me fighting a Kampmann who just defeated Alves. Kampmann will get a near #1 contender fight, not have to prove himself AGAIN vs. someone like me.
Have a bit of realism with all your fanatacism.
Enjoy the fight(s). WW division is messy. And it'll take a while to clean it up. Give me some time, and we'll see if I can do just that.
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06-14-12 03:24 AM #20
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06-14-12 03:31 AM #21
Finally someone without an ego who has a level headed realistic understanding of the way things work in the UFC. I like it. Originally Posted by Vaughany
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06-14-12 03:41 AM #22
Love Waldburgers ground game but the fact that TJ was TKO'd by ricardo funch, yes you heard that correctly ricardo freaking funch. Well thats very worrisome lol.
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06-14-12 03:54 AM #23
Yeah, one of the key things in this fight for me...Waldburger's ability (or lack thereof) to take too much punishment
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06-14-12 06:31 AM #24
Yeahhh I dont see Waldy winning this any way. Ebersole opened at -170 yesterday, I think the odds are going to drop. I heard it's at -200 now.
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06-14-12 06:34 AM #25
-200 on sportsbook, -260 on 5dimes/sportbet
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06-14-12 08:19 AM #26
im on ebersole he shows more natural ability
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06-14-12 08:50 AM #27
Yeah man, -170 was wrong lol. Should have placed a straight up on him last night. Originally Posted by Vaughany
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06-14-12 08:51 AM #28
Still not showing on my sportsbook Originally Posted by betterthanjones
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06-14-12 09:04 AM #29
5dimes it bro, by the time it shows up on your sportsbook it might not be worth anything Originally Posted by Vaughany
Still not showing on my sportsbook
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06-14-12 09:11 AM #30
Yeah I already put the Ebersole -230 on sportbet in a parlay. It is showing on my sportsbook.com now for UK users but Ebersole is -270 while he's still -200 on the US version Originally Posted by betterthanjones
5dimes it bro, by the time it shows up on your sportsbook it might not be worth anything
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06-14-12 09:17 AM #31
Wow, -270 already? Jeez....
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06-14-12 11:53 AM #32
interesting, that's a very humble and objective look on this match and himself, this makes me like ebersole a lot more... Originally Posted by Vaughany
However, I def wouldn't pay the current juice on brian, that's just ridiculous in the -260 range imo... However, I still can't pay the oddds on waldy, they're not enticing enough to me , so this is prob a no play for me. I do think ebersole will grind it if not get a tko but regardless of belt rank (belts reallty don't mean ish imo, its all about natural grappling ability), I think waldburger has the ground game to give anyone fits... Gonna be interesting!!
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06-21-12 08:26 PM #33
Lytle and hallman were injured when Ebersole beat them. He's a very good fighter but they were also fortunate circumstances.
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