Ok so feeling very good about Lamas. Got him at good value at +180, the line hasn't gotten back to +180 on 5Dimes yet. I have a bunch of dog leans, but here is one of my other strong plays. I've had my eye on this play for a while...
6/22/12 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1201 TJ Waldburger +215* vs Brian Ebersole
This fight is a another great example of how more careful thought and some research is necessary before making a play on an initial lean. Ebersole seems like an easy pick here. Beat Chris Lytle, looked great against Hallaman, beat a great grappler in Claude Patrick. However, if we take into account the fact that Chris Lytle fought Ebersole a few weeks after major knee surgery, perhaps Ebersole's stock dropped a little. As for the Hallman fight, as awesome as Ebersole's GnP finish was, let us not forget the fact that Hallman was bale to get Ebersole's back very quickly and easily before the finish. Hallman showed aggression in trying to get the back after a failed shoot takedown , and succeeded fairly easily in getting the back. This type of aggression in the grappling department seems to be the staple of Waldburger's game. He took a risk in a scramble against Jake Hecht and succeeded with a beautiful armbar. He was also very aggressive off his back against Mike Stumpt, constantly throwing up armbar subs and eventually locked in a triangle after a beautiful chain sub. This type of aggressiveness in the grappling department could overwhelm the albeit savvy vet, who may be too confident and not cautious enough, and lead himself into some tough positions on the ground against a submission specialist.
But Waldburger isn't all submissions and BJJ, he also possesses some underrated wrestling. Ebersole's wrestling is solid, but the younger, stronger and more athletic Waldburger should be able to handle Ebersole's solid but not necessarily elite wrestling. Waldburger's wrestling has been solid in all his fights, except against an elite wrestler in Hendricks.
While we haven't seen too much of Waldburger's striking, I would take a knockout loss to Hendricks with a grain of salt. Waldburger is capable on his fight and should stay competitive against Ebersole if the fight stays standing.