[gabe]

I think elliott is better all around. Hes quicker and has a more varied attack. He will stay in center of the ring and pressure papazian. Im pretty confident he will win. Pretty decent odds to get for a guy that have the advantage both standing and on the ground.

Disagree. We'll see...

[Mercersux]

I think elliott is better all around. Hes quicker and has a more varied attack. He will stay in center of the ring and pressure papazian. Im pretty confident he will win. Pretty decent odds to get for a guy that have the advantage both standing and on the ground.

Sounds about right.

[bjpenn85]

if it ends up being a slugfest it can be a bit to close for my taste, but even a split dec will be awarded tim elliott i think.

[bjpenn85]

arbing pat barry @ 3.3

[bjpenn85]

yup

[bjpenn85]

TUF FINALE 15 results: +5.4 units
Total result on this thread: 210 units

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

UFC 155

12.6 units on Jim Miller @ 1.48 to win - 6 unit

[bjpenn85]

Adding more to Jim miller play:

25 units on Jim Miller @ 1.46 to win - 12 units

[bjpenn85]

UFC 155 Final plays and it goes:


38 units on Jim Miller @ 1.46 to win - 17.4 units
24 units on JDS @ 1.58 to win - 20 units
27 units on Max H., Erik Perez @ 1.6 to win - 15.3 units
10 units on The talent @ 2.3 to win - 13 units

Happy focking new year people!

[KushMoney]

UFC 155 Final plays and it goes:


38 units on Jim Miller @ 1.46 to win - 17.4 units
24 units on JDS @ 1.58 to win - 20 units
27 units on Max H., Erik Perez @ 1.6 to win - 15.3 units
10 units on The talent @ 2.3 to win - 13 units

Happy focking new year people!

With ya on each. Have about the same amount on a Hollow/Perez parlay. A lotta fukkin money. These kids better show up to fukkin fight.


Good luck bro.

[bjpenn85]

Jim miller fight is going to be pretty close. Thats the most risky fight on the card, but hes not going to loose.

[KushMoney]

Jim miller fight is going to be pretty close. Thats the most risky fight on the card, but hes not going to loose.

Definitely. Miller/Lauzon should be a back n forth fight, with Lauzon winning the 1st Round, 2nd Round split, and Miller dominating the last round.

Miller by either 29-28 Unanimous or Split Decision Victory

[bjpenn85]

UFC 155 results: +2,7 units
Total result on this thread from march 2012: +212,7 units

Pretty happy about the year overall. December was the best month tripling my year average. The most valuable lesson i have learned this year is, to not bet heavy on undercard fight as they continuously seem to be quite unstable bets and do not have extended bet options. I havent seen the leonard garcia vs max holloway but i heard that was a robbery. Thats insane even knowing that max holloway came in on late notice. Max Holloway based on prior performances should have cruised through victory IMO so there you go. Anyway, Im def looking forward to 2013, where my next goal is to break 800 units as real numbers were close to 520 units from january - december. Im pretty sure thats possible livebetting on 5dimes and bookmaker included. Thats all for now 2012!

[PunisherIND]

Beyond impressive my man.

[bjpenn85]

Strikeforce - Marquardt vs Saffeidine

20 units on Marquardt, M.Johnson @ 2.0 to win - 20 units

[PunisherIND]

Mighty mouse "demetrious" johnson?

[bjpenn85]

Yeah buddy. If you beat benavidez, you can beat anyone, i hope. Dodson KO of the night as hedge

[Vaughany]

yeah agree, think DOdson is gonna have to starch him to win this

[v1y]

Yeah buddy. If you beat benavidez, you can beat anyone, i hope. Dodson KO of the night as hedge

except pickett, apparently.

[GigaOuts]

Yeah buddy. If you beat benavidez, you can beat anyone, i hope. Dodson KO of the night as hedge

I find prop hedging to be very stressful, if the unlikely scenario happen, it can b!tch slap you pretty hard. I remember a respectful poster have SU on Josh Koschecks and hedge with Johny Hendrick by ko. I reply saying that Koshecks only lost 1 time by ko in 22+ fight, pretty dangerous hedge.

I find prop bet is a sucker bet, maybe I am not good at them! GL for the new year.

[bjpenn85]

Thanks buddy. Hedge is important for me. But ill guess it depends on how you hedge. Your example you use is a classic. To look past koscheck history of not getting Koed was a mistake even though Hendrick has a lot of Ko power. The fact that when two very evenly matched fighters squares off is usually goes to decision as well. So 2 mistakes there 1. Koshceck never gets Koed 2. even fighters goes to a decision.

I usually like to hedge high energy fighters with KO or submission so that i know that if the fight goes to the decision they have very likely burned off all the energy,or fighters that only win by decision. Fitch, Franky edgar etc. You will more often than not win betting on edgar dec so if you lose a couple of times, no problemo right?

[bjpenn85]

Strikeforce - Marquardt vs Saffeidine Results: -20 units

Last time i get buried with this clown. I still felt like this was a proper upset so i dont really know if this was a bad pick in hindsight. The fact that he Koed a poor striker in woodley last fight may have me a bit too confident in marquardt striking ability while def overlooking saffedines. I also didnt expekt saffedine to have so good takedown defence although i have seen it steadily improve over the year. I usually come back with a vengeance after big losses, so stay tuned peps, watch me slam dunk the rebound.

[bjpenn85]

UFC ON FX 7: BELFORT VS BISPING

11.4 units on A.Martins, T.Kennedy, Belfort not 5.rdec @ 1.87 - 9.5 units
8.2 units on Diego Nunes, Mighty Moutse johnson @ 2.39 to win - 11,5 units
6 units on Michael Bisping @ 2.05 to win (probably adding more later) - 6 units

[bjpenn85]

UFC ON FX 7: BELFORT VS BISPING
47 units on Khabib N. @ 1.57 to win - 26.5 units
11.4 units on A.Martins, T.Kennedy, Belfort not 5.rdec @ 1.87 - 9.5 units
10 units on Bisping @ evens - 10 units
10 units on Nick Lentz @ 2.4 - 14 units
3 units on Vitor Belfort wins in Round 1. @ 5.0 to win - 12 units

First of all, i have been going back and forth on diego nunes the whole week until yesterday, were i found out that i am flipping. First i thought diego nunes striking would bee the factor because of his takedown defence. But my problem with diego nunes style is that he has so little power that i simply dont believe nick lentz is going to respekt nunes and just run over nunes like a train. Nunes needs to fight smart, but even if he does, he may find himself locked up. The problem even if nick lents stall and get the takedowns here and there is the homefield advantage. I def think we can see a boring decision that should be awarded to nick lentz thant instead ends up in the hand of of the Brazilian.

Khabib, should be the aggressor, dictating the pace all three rounds. The guy doesnt know what losing is and his cardio is insane. This is a guy that may match clay guida cardio and that is a very nice skill set to bet on.Everytime i get the chance to bet huge talents, like rory macdonal, gunnarson etc etc, i very seldom loose, so this is one of my "type" of fights i like to bet on. Huge talents very very often comes through and i dont think any different in this situation.I have a feeling that khabib will bee to much for thiago even though thiago has a lot of skills. Another thing is the suspect chin of tavares which khabib very well may expose. A little trick that seems to work well for khabib is faking with a takedown before striking. So far he rocked both tibau and shalarous. Shalarous was nearly finished in the 2.round while tibau got rocked or stunned if you like in the 3.round. If tavares managed to sustain three rounds im pretty sure the winner will be khabib, but the f judges down there..thats whats scares me a bit.

[Vaughany]

yeah if this Nunes fight wasnt in Brazil I'd like Lentz as dog. But he's fightng a guy who is very hard to keep down on the mat in the first place, and in a country where refs make fighters stand up quicker, and Nunes has a reasonably high output so can score points and scrape rounds. Thts why im staying away

[bjpenn85]

Hes very hard to keep down, both because of his takedown defence and because hes quick has hell. But nick lentz is tenacious and his +140. But this is def not wort any more than 10 units, and im aware that this may be the bet on the card that goes to hell.

[Fragoel2]

47 units on khabib? jeez, I like it but man, you have some balls...

[Vaughany]

Great decision!

[bjpenn85]

UFC ON FX 7: BELFORT VS BISPING Result: + 37 unit


As promised i return with a vengeance. No surprises on the card really other than how strong nick lentz appeared. He seems to really settle down at 145. Khabibs performance was a bit overwhelming, mentioned earlier huge talent has a tendency to come through.That man is strong, fast, young, has willpower, cardio, good footwork and the list goes on. Congratulations to all of ya that sided with chinago chinares.

[bjpenn85]

cheers buddy. Sometimes youre just on the right side ill guess. 50 50 fight.

[Vaughany]

Good work buddy

[bjpenn85]

UFC ON FOX 6 : Dodson vs Johnson

10 units on T.J Grant @2.50 to win - 15 units
6 units on Johnson dec, Faber @2.17 to win - 7 units

T.J Grant for some reason at some point in time just got a lot better. If it was his striking training down in thailand or maturing as a fighter over the last years, who knows but hes gotten a lot better. The way he handled Evan Dunham makes me believe hes a tiny better standing up which is were i believe this fight will take place. On the ground both fighters are so capable and skilled i dont think any fighter will come in with a grapple based gameplan. When that being said, this is fight that can go both ways, because its a very even fight, but also because the judges continues to avoid doing their job and score fights based on whatever paramater they feel like. This fight will most likely go to decision so if you dont like risks, you should stay away from betting any fighter and just go for the decision prop which currently is a steal combined with mighty mouse dec.

If youre going heavy on Mighty mouse dec you should hedge this prop with Dodson KO of the night as mighty mouse has a history of getting tagged, while dodson has a tendency KOing people into oblivion. So, dont make the same mistake as when bisping fought last weekend (as i also did) shying away from putting a sprinkle on dodson KO/KO of the night.

[Vaughany]

On Grant by decision at +168 and got fight goes distance in a parlay. I think Grant's size advantage could make the difference. He also has better combinations IMO and Wiman tends to throws telegraphed sloppy leg kicks at times that are easy to counter with take-downs (did it straight away against Sass and got taken down off it). Hard to bet against Wiman though because of how tough he is, but also had to back Wiman because he tends to always lose when he has these big chances to advance up the rankings and he has big issues with nerves and anxiety as he admitted to Ariel Helwani after the Sass fight.

Here's a photo of Healy and Wiman from when they trained together couple months ago, maybe it's the perspective or something but Wiman looks small compared to Healy, and Healy is very similar build (and look in general!) to TJ Grant. Both 5ft 11 and 72inch reach, former welterweights. Grant might even be a little thicker than Healy tho...

[bjpenn85]

Wiman could be smaller, but this photograph focks up, and does not give a precise image of these two i think. But im willing to get persuaded to think that T.J is as big as healy in this photograph. Am as biased as everyone in this forum, except gave obviously.

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

6 units on Thoresen, Lamas @ 2.34 to win - 8.04 units

Thoresens striking is pretty decent. I will say it was bether than seth b. before he got koed out. I dont really know whos the better at bjj, but if i was to just guess ill probably go with thoresen. But i dont think bjj will be a deciding factor as this probably is going to end up in a striking battle where thoresen should win. He may be a bit hesitant in the beginning, but during the course of three rounds the better fighter will win. The last fight may be a red flag of thoresens chin, as this was hes second flash KO thus am a bit hesitant to put more.

Lamas should be able to shrug of lamas takedowns attempt i think. Lamas isnt a bad fighter at all so who knows, but koch has some serious standup skills, and i dont think lamas can take his punch. This one is probably going to end with a KO.