[v1y]

UFC on FX i lost pretty big on noke and the mcgee fight, and at one point was down 600. then, thankfully my benavidez by tko prop hit, and i finished the night up 200.

then tonight, same shit. things were going well, and then daley lost, costing me 750, and putting me down 600 on the night (on daley i had 350 straight, 200 inside the distance, 200 in a parlay). I had 1175 riding on the rousey fight (300 straight, 200 ronda in rd1. 200 ronda sub etc), and thank god her rd 1 sub put me up another 200 total on the night.

jesus christ i can't decide whether this weekend makes me want to quit gambling forever, or if the rush i experienced is what keeps me doing this.

must be how gabe feels every night.

[Vaughany]

haha exactly the same feeling! Rollercoaster weekend...makes u wonder whether it is worth it!

[FightFightFight]

100 bucks says Gabe chased with rousey. Gabe?

[Vitooch]

Of course it's worth it. What better rush is winning money in such an exciting sport. As long as you are playing within your financial means gambling can be a wonderful recreational activity.

[v1y]

also i never chase, but this weekend i did. 100 on benavidez by tko right before the fight, and i threw an additional 100 on ronda rd.1 right before the fight (although all my other ronda bets were before the event started.)

[Vitooch]

Chasing is very dangerous in the long run. You can lose alot of money quick.

[Hannibal]

got ****** with kampmann dec and thiago straight yesterday.

today i hit all my wagers
healy,sayers, misaki dec, thompson dec, rousey straight, rousey by sub and rousey rd1. 7/7 and i am still down this weekend.
fck. i should have just played alves straight.

need to decide if its better to just make straight plays or to use hedges like these

[varkolek]

Where were people getting all these props for Strikeforce? Was it 5Dimes/Sportbet? I would have bet on some of these if I knew they were available.

[Vaughany]

yeah sportbet/5dimes. Released em quite late

[Beelzebubzy]

great job v1

Rousey saved my weekend. I wish I had more. I arbed out on my small play of rousey by -285 but had about 3u on Rousey -235

I am excited for Rousey vs Kaufmann

[v1y]

great job v1

Rousey saved my weekend. I wish I had more. I arbed out on my small play of rousey by -285 but had about 3u on Rousey -235

I am excited for Rousey vs Kaufmann

yea as soon as i saw the props i thanked god

rousey in round 1 was +140.
rousey by sub was -180

[Oblivian]

My entire 2012 has been like this. I'm pretty much break even for 2012(slightly in positive), but it's been a much different experience than in 2010 and 2011 which were steady profits throughout the year. I've definitely contemplated stepping away.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

What do you do when you fall off the horse? You get back on.

The posters in here are all good cappers... Just ride out the variance and this will be a footnote in time in couple of months.

[gabe]

UFC on FX i lost pretty big on noke and the mcgee fight, and at one point was down 600. then, thankfully my benavidez by tko prop hit, and i finished the night up 200.

then tonight, same shit. things were going well, and then daley lost, costing me 750, and putting me down 600 on the night (on daley i had 350 straight, 200 inside the distance, 200 in a parlay). I had 1175 riding on the rousey fight (300 straight, 200 ronda in rd1. 200 ronda sub etc), and thank god her rd 1 sub put me up another 200 total on the night.

jesus christ i can't decide whether this weekend makes me want to quit gambling forever, or if the rush i experienced is what keeps me doing this.

must be how gabe feels every night.

haha exactly... i'm really glad there isn't another card for a few weeks lol i need a break

[gabe]

100 bucks says Gabe chased with rousey. Gabe?

I was already on Rousey big, but after Daley lost, I added another $1,480 to win $400 at -370

Had her locked up at -290 and -310 initially

[Wanna Bet On It?]

We all break the cardinal rules every now and then but betting should be done like Thelonious Monk: straight no chaser.

Otherwise you'll end up playing guitar on the street-corner for quarters.

[Condit]

got ****** with kampmann dec and thiago straight yesterday.

today i hit all my wagers
healy,sayers, misaki dec, thompson dec, rousey straight, rousey by sub and rousey rd1. 7/7 and i am still down this weekend.
fck. i should have just played alves straight.

need to decide if its better to just make straight plays or to use hedges like these

Maybe you could try corroborated hedges (i dont know if this is the right term) so both bets can hit instead of having one or the other.

For example, ellenberger straight and sanchez +3.5 (+150 ?) both hit
or yesterday, misaki-daley inside, hedged with over 1 1/2 rounds. or possibly misaki +3.5 (but i didnt see that anywhere) one hit, but the hedge worked. theywere still 1 1/2 rds for the finish to happen.

but for kampmann vs thiago, kampmann +3.5 was pretty pricey, like -285. so not really possible. i hope you get what im saying

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Maybe you could try corroborated hedges (i dont know if this is the right term) so both bets can hit instead of having one or the other.

For example, ellenberger straight and sanchez +3.5 (+150 ?) both hit
or yesterday, misaki-daley inside, hedged with over 1 1/2 rounds. or possibly misaki +3.5 (but i didnt see that anywhere) one hit, but the hedge worked. theywere still 1 1/2 rds for the finish to happen.

but for kampmann vs thiago, kampmann +3.5 was pretty pricey, like -285. so not really possible. i hope you get what im saying

I like to make those plays in the right spot, don't get me wrong, but often you dilute your winnings by making those plays unless they both allign with what you think will occur.

In the Ellenberger/Sanchez fight, Ellenberger was capped at like +190 to finish and +140 for a decision, so maybe 60/40 that Jake would win a decision... then, even if he won a decision, Sanchez would have to win one round which a lot of people thought wouldn't happen, and may not have if Ellenberger didn't slip off Sanchez's back and end up in a vulnerable position with 1 minute left.

So say Ellenberger 3U to win 1U; Sanchez +3.5 1U to win 1.5U.
Ellenberger Finish: no profit
Ellenberger 30-27: no profit
Sanchez: 1.5U loss
Ellenberger 29-28 or split win: 2.5U profit

So what are you betting here, Ellenberger to win a narrow decision? Many would just play Ellenberger by Decision because you don't win anything if Ellenberger wins 30-27 and you still win more if Ellenberger wins a close/split decision by a straight decision prop @ +140 than those two bets. Sure there's a little protection from Sanchez getting finished or Sanchez finishing Jake but unless you're really convinced of the play, it's unlikely for it to work in your favour in the long run as you're paying juice out on two bets.

Basically, I'd make that bet if it really alligned with how I capped the fight and the juice isn't exorbitant but it almost invariably is for +/-, O/U, props, etc. to dissuade you from making too many combos.

[Hannibal]

edit: what was i thinking

i think my bigger problem was sizing the bet. I was so confident in the hedge,...felt like a free play on alves. Put way more than i should have.

[bogbat]

I've had a similar one too the last couple of weeks.

Won some dog bets on last weekends card.
Lost it all plus some on Edgar (who I think won)
Chased this weekend on Alves and thought I was home free before round 3 sub.
Won a big dog play on Musaki
Won on Josh Thompson.
..but last nights plays were not chase plays so I'm still down a good bit for the month.

I guess it doesn't help that I've been busy lately and had no time to research any of my picks. They have been straight gut/ memory plays.

[GigaOuts]

My lock bet this weekend is Daniel Pineda. I max out at opening:
$550 @150
$250 @ 147
$250 @ 145,

Than I came across a post by Vaughanny saying Jesus pick Semerzier, so I panic and hedge my bet...lol....put $411 on Mackens Semerzier to win $300 back.

After 4 win out of 4 fights, I was flying high up $1300+, than brag about it to my friend who is on a very tight budget. After that, bad Karma losing the next 5 fights, decide to chase with Alves to get back to my peak. Was very happy that I chase until the last minute lol. Alves work so hard for the TDD for over 3 rounds to prevent the ground game, than the last minute he decided volunteer to go to the ground with Kampmann..oh the irony.

GigaOuts.

[gabe]

My lock bet this weekend is Daniel Pineda. I max out at opening:
$550 @150
$250 @ 147
$250 @ 145,

Than I came across a post by Vaughanny saying Jesus pick Semerzier, so I panic and hedge my bet...lol....put $411 on Mackens Semerzier to win $300 back.

After 4 win out of 4 fights, I was flying high up $1300+, than brag about it to my friend who is on a very tight budget. After that, bad Karma losing the next 5 fights, decide to chase with Alves to get back to my peak. Was very happy that I chase until the last minute lol. Alves work so hard for the TDD for over 3 rounds to prevent the ground game, than the last minute he decided volunteer to go to the ground with Kampmann..oh the irony.

GigaOuts.

From what I understand, jesus eats noobs is a fool. I was big on Pineda, too, and when I read Vaughany's post that jesus was on Semerzier, it made me more confident in Pineda.

[Hannibal]

Gigaouts... you have mistaken "jesuseatnubs" for the lord and savior JESUS CHRIST

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Gigaouts... you have mistaken "jesuseatnubs" for the lord and savior JESUS CHRIST

No I think Gabe did.

So if I fade Gabe and Gabe fades Jesus, then are my picks blessed by Jesus?

I guess by Nob-eating Jesus yeah...

[gabe]

No I think Gabe did.

So if I fade Gabe and Gabe fades Jesus, then are my picks blessed by Jesus?

I guess by Nob-eating Jesus yeah...

you think incorrectly.

[v1y]

oh yea same shit happened on the ellenberger/sanchez card. was down big and ellenberger saved me.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

you think incorrectly.

Giga said "Jesus". You took that to mean "jesus eats noobs" in your response. Who's the incorrect one?

[gabe]

Giga said "Jesus". You took that to mean "jesus eats noobs" in your response. Who's the incorrect one?

jesus is short for jesus eats noobs. giga was talking about (v talking about) jesus being on semerzier. jesus eats noobs was on semerzier, not jesus christ.

so, you are incorrect.

[Jesus Christ]

Who woulda thought there would be more than one Jesus on a gambling forum

[Vaughany]

Was the original OG

[scofflaw]

I still firmly believe that Gabe is the same person as jesuseatsnubs

I had one of my most successful weekends ever. On Friday I had a pretty large win on Steven Siler. On Saturday Rousey crushed it for me with a win, sub, 1st round finish.

I'll be withdrawing about 75% of my BR today. I don't like to let it get too high anymore because my money management gets a little wonky when I'm dealing with larger numbers.

[illmatick]

Decent weekend for me. Could have been a great one had either Uncle creepy or Thiago Alves came through.

[Vaughany]

Decent weekend for me. Could have been a great one had either Uncle creepy or Thiago Alves came through.

Werent u big on Fodor and Heun as well tho? Those must of set u back a little...was so close to playing Fodor!

[illmatick]

I was big on Fodor, considered buying out for a guaranteed profit but I waited too long after the line came back down. I cashed two out of my three Rousey parlays and and went 2-0 on props. Had fight wont start round 3 and Rousey in round 1.

That Thiago fight was my biggest loss due to a bunch of parlays getting busted.

[Vaughany]

yeah Thiago getting finished was devastating!