[Libert1ne]

Hi guys!

I've been lurking regularly for a few months now and have been casually betting on MMA at my local online sportsbooks here in Australia over the last 6 months or so.

Bit more background on me: I'm a 22 year old student who's also working full time (about to quit my job). HUGE MMA fan since then end of 2009 when my uncle showed me some fedor videos on youtube. My units are about 1% of my bankroll. I'm still quite the novice with regards to properly capping fights and beating final odds on fights, but my predictions are usually pretty good. My betting history isn't stellar (I'm tracking my history with a very useful spreadsheet I found online and am currently down about 2.5 units)

I was inspired by all the insightful posts on the forum and decided to make a post just saying hello and perhaps track my record online so I'm held accountable haha. Feel free to critique the hell out of me and my bets and betting style I'm here to learn and my mind is open to all points of view.

I've been pretty excited all week about this event so here are the bets I have pending at the moment for UFC on FUEL 1:

7 Way parlay: Sonnen/Brenneman/Easton/Evans/Weidman/Camoes/Ellenberger 1 unit @ 9.07
3 Way parlay: Rousey/Sonnen/Ellenberger 6 units @ 2.15
3 Way parlay: Rousey/Ellenberger/Weidman 1.25 units @ 2.85
4 Way parlay: Rousey/Sonnen/Ellenberger/Weidman 1.5 units @ 3.42
Head to Head: Herman 5 units @ 1.77
2 Way parlay: Herman/Ellenberger 2.34 units @ 2.44
2 Way parlay: Herman/Ellenberger 1.5 units @ 2.43
3 Way parlay: Ellenberger/Rampage/Benavidez 3 units @ 2.05
5 Way parlay: Rampage/Rousey/Benavidez/Might Mouse/Ellenberger inside the distance 2 units @ 7.98
4 Way parlay: Stann/Ellenberger/Jon Jones/Benavidez 5 units @ 2.19
Prop: Ellenberger Inside the distance 3 units @ 2.23
Prop: Sanchez by decision 3 units @ 4.09
4 Way parlay: Ellenberger/Rampage/Benavidez/Jones/Mighty Mouse 1.5 units @ 3.22
Head to Head: Ronny Markes 4 units @ 2.10
Head to Head Walel Watson 1.26 units @ 3.20

As you can see pretty big on Ellenberger with a slight hedge on Sanchez by dec.

Still deciding on what final bets to place having seen the lines move/more props have opened. Thoughts?

[MexicanStallion]

Welcome and enjoy the forum. Best of luck with your monster card pending. I will have my picks up later today.

[abramsonsmith]

Welcome Libert1ne and enjoy the forums

[BIGDAY]

GL bro

[bjpenn85]

Welcome Libertine. Elleberger will make you a rockstar or a W. Houston. Maybe a bit early there but...this is a forum get over it!

[Vaughany]

Welcome...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2oTuxXjbO4

[Libert1ne]

Yeah. I'm strongly considering hedging more with diego by decision the more I look at how much is riding on him hahaha. maybe another 3-4 units...

[Libert1ne]

Welcome Libertine. Elleberger will make you a rockstar or a W. Houston. Maybe a bit early there but...this is a forum get over it!

Makes me a bit nervous. I am very confident in Ellenberger against Sanchez, especially considering sanchez hasn't fought in nearly a year.

[Beelzebubzy]

Welcome Lib

Good luck tonight

[The HOFF]

Good luck. Usually I would advise to stay away from so many parlays and the ones with so many legs, but all of yours look pretty solid...

I would definitely put a small play on Diego by DEC, just in case.

[Libert1ne]

Good luck. Usually I would advise to stay away from so many parlays and the ones with so many legs, but all of yours look pretty solid...

I would definitely put a small play on Diego by DEC, just in case.

I have added an additional 2 units @ +450 on Diego by decision. Total 5 units on Diego by dec.

Also added:
1u on magalhaes @ 1.77
1u on Loffler @ 2.27

[Libert1ne]

Not a great night for me in the end. Lost big on herman and my ellenberger inside/diego decision plays didn't hit. Still quite a few live parlays though thanks to Ellenberger winning.

On to the next card...

[Libert1ne]

UFC 144

After I analysed last card I recorded a loss of 9.2 units. Pretty disappointed, but I reflected and saw a couple holes in my betting strategy, especially with so much riding on Herman. Also still have a few live parlays thanks to ellenberger so 9.2 isn't totally accurate (Yet)

The following are my plays so far for UFC 144. Will probably stop there for now and later add props when they get released. Banking big on my Edgar (probably too much, might hedge with bendo inside/goes the distance) and I just don't see how Page is going to lose a 3 round fight with Ryan Bader in Japan...

Head to Head: Frankie Edgar 7.85 units @ 1.71 (terrible odds I know)
Head to Head: Frankie Edgar 5 units @ 1.91
2 Way Parlay: Frankie Edgar/Rashad Evans 2 units @ 2.79
2 Way Parlay: Frankie Edgar/Fabricio Werdum 1.5 units @ 3.00
3 Way Parlay: Ellenberger/Rampage/Benavidez 3 units @ 2.05
Head to Head: Rampage 8.4 units @ 1.43
5 Way Parlay: Ellenberger/Rampage/Benavidez/Jones/Demitrius Johnson 1.5 units @ 3.22
3 Way Parlay: Rampage/Benavidez/Demitrius Johnson 1.5 units @ 1.92
3 Way Parlay: Pettis/Kongo/Rampage 4 units @ 2.54
2 Way Parlay: Pettis/Kongo 3.99 units @ 1.79

[Libert1ne]

Added:
Head to Head: Rampage/Bader goes the distance 7 units @ 1.71 to win 5 units

[Libert1ne]

Will probably also hedge with Hunt by KO/TKO (If the odds are good enough), 2 units or so. Also betting Jake Shields by decision @ + odds

[Libert1ne]

Not sure what else I can do with the main event... I'm pretty huge on Edgar. Might play bendo inside... Don't see him winning the 5 round decision against Frankie.

[Libert1ne]

Added:
Head to Head: Bader inside 1.5 units @ 6.61 to win 8.415 units