[cschoeny]

Hey guys,

So I'm new to betting online and UFC on Fuel TV 1 will be my first time. I have a few questions.

1) Obviously the odds makers have a much more difficult time predicting the fights than an NBA game, and thus the lines move a lot leading up to a fight. I'm having extreme difficulty predicting which way the lines will move. And I'm wondering if in general it is better to bet on a fight early or wait until the day of and get reduced lines at 5dimes.

For example, right now at 5Dimes Struve is at +120, and I have no idea how much or which way the line will move before the fight. If the line is +120 heading into fight day, how much will the reduced juice increase it? +130 perhaps? If it is something small like this it doesn't seem like waiting is worth it.


2) In your personal experience, does a large move in a line from the opening odds to fight night odds mean that the odds makers initial line was off, or that it's possible to get a really good deal come fight day. For instance, Aaron Simpson started off at -185 and is now at -120, obviously most of the action has been placed against him, but were the odds makers really that far off to begin with?


3) How long before the fights are the other main card fights put up. I'm wondering when I can expect the initial odds for UFC 144 besides the 2 main events.


Thanks for any responses.

[ddream1]

cannot really answer those questions with concrete advice. bottomline is u need to get a feel 1st for your pick and how u think is going to win, then look a the line and the value it brings to u and that does mean fav 0r dog. determining where the line goes is 50-50. people will mostly bet up a more noticable fighter. most of us all will use bestfightodds, we use the alert section to get a message when a fight is released, make a list of the fights u are think and where u think the line will be or "hope will be" it mostly takes seconds before the line is adjusted, and them a few days settles and then usually moves again fight night about 10-15 points.

simpson-markes is an example of most knowing simpson and not so much markes, i haven't looked on the board yet but i would wager a few of the boys including myself will be on markes. he has a skill set to win this, markes is a potential winner with dog value and not a fighter with value who has a chance to win(if that makes sense)

advice, if your new to this try not to worry to much on line swings, just develop your pick'em game and style and start to study the line moves and such as they reflect your picks.

lower end cards usually night before or day of, ufc PPV usually have a full card the tues to thurs before the sat, and other ufc cards usually full program listed 2 days before, but its never the same, bookmaker is usually the 1st, again just use bestfightodds and alert your fights to ur email best way.

well all that and pretty much no help, best of luck with ur plays

[PunisherIND]

2) In your personal experience, does a large move in a line from the opening odds to fight night odds mean that the odds makers initial line was off, or that it's possible to get a really good deal come fight day. For instance, Aaron Simpson started off at -185 and is now at -120, obviously most of the action has been placed against him, but were the odds makers really that far off to begin with?

each situation is different and there is no set rule as to whether the line movement is an indicator that the original line was off, or whether the public is off.

e.g., eduardo dantas opened +285 against alexis vila. public pounded the line down to +130. turns out the public was correct on that one. then you have condit who opened -135 against nick diaz, but closed around +180.

in short, line movement will not help predict who will actually win the fight.

[NunyaBidness]

in short, line movement will not help predict who will actually win the fight.

Not in the short term. But if you are beating the closing line most of the time over significant volume you will come out ahead.

[lucKO]

There are relatively few ways to predict line movement. Some get good value by betting on openers, which are accurate about 90% of the time. After a line is released and has 'settled', betting trends tend to continue e.g. people betting on fighter A will lower the line, and prompt other people to bet Fighter A before it gets any lower. Sometimes when a new interview/info on a fighter comes out the line will spike, but this trend stays fairly constant until weigh ins.

[cschoeny]

Thank you all for the responses, I have a lot to think about now.

I will definitely make use of the alerts at bestfightodds. MMA and math are two of my passions, and I'm going to keep my bets extremely low compared to my bankroll until I get a hang of it.

[cschoeny]

One more question,

Anyone that got Markes anywhere the near opening line of +155 and is having second thoughts, this would be a perfect time to place a bet on Simpson at -110 and arb, correct? Thus guaranteeing a profit?

[Giblets]

One more question, Anyone that got Markes anywhere the near opening line of +155 and is having second thoughts, this would be a perfect time to place a bet on Simpson at -110 and arb, correct? Thus guaranteeing a profit?

Correct.

[fosho14]

What arbitrage software does everyone here use?

[Tklane21]

What arbitrage software does everyone here use?

I just keep track of my floating bets on a spreadsheet along with where I booked it, units risked, and units to win so I don't accidentally arb or hedge at the same book and get slammed for it.