I have been eyeing this line for a while waiting to see where it was going to go. Finally got some movement today going down to -220 at 5d and up to -270 at bodog.
Over the past 2 years I have been burned repeatedly going against the young wrestlers Askren, Warren and Chandler in Bellator fights. That was the only thing stopping me from taking the -250.
I think Chandler just takes way too much damage trying to implement his game. Now, his learning cirve is most lekely very high. So, I wouldnt be shocked if we see a sifgnificantly better Chandler tonight. However, I think he will have to be. I dont think he gets Alvarez on his back as easily as he did his three oppenents in the tourney. I think he is at a significant disadvatage standing and I dont think he has any chance of submitting Alvarez. Realisticall, I think this line should be -350 at minimum.
Tell me what I am missing??
Also taking Bowles +185 (played +165 at open and again at +200) - +185 currently at Bodog. As it was pointed out in my original Bowles thread, you have to consider his hand injuries and his response to adversity if Faber puts it on him early. But, I think his grappling is on par and he has more power.
Le-Silva to go Distance +290 - If this gets out of the first, I think it has a grewat chance. Le doesnt have devestating one punch power, and I think he can frustrate Siva and beat on hom early, but Silva not the kind of guy to soucomb. I think he can survive earl;y and I think Le will lose steam as fight goes on. Orginally was taking Le by Dec at +539, but concerned Silva will get nod if rounds are close despite fact his strikes may not land as cleanly.
Kingsbury -140 - Kingsbury's growth has impressed me since time on ultimate fighter. I think he presses Bonnar, controls the fight on the cage. Wouldnt be shocked if Kingsbury dropped fro takedowns and got fight to ground to steal rounds late.
Lawlor +3.5 +145 - Weidman really impressed me so far. Especially when he stepped up and actually out struck Sakara. But, I think that had more to do with Sakara looking like shit. Weidman still a little green imo. Lawlor is going to bring it and if Weidman is content to spend too much time standing, I think he can lose a round in this fight. Plus +145 seems high coinsidering to go distance is -125.
I will admit that I didnt watch any old footage before this event and I just dont put the time in that I used to. So I would love some opinions on these plays.
Dos Anjos +145 5d - snagged +165 the other day, this one is dropping. Tibau will try to grind Dos Anjos out with his size. His stamd up is improving as well. But Dos Anjos is more dangerous fighter everywhere and I think he should be a be a slight fav. Wouldnt be suprised to see Dos Anjos frustrate Tibau with leg kick and movement early.
Dan Hendersen +3.5 -135 - Dont think he catches Shogun with the big power, but I think he can take the third round as there is a better chance that Shogun fades in third, not saying that Hendersen is a cardio monster. In an alternative scenerio, I think Hendo can tie Shogun up and drag him down opening up the possibility of taking a round working from Shogun's guard or half for a portion of the round.
Wouldnt be shocked if Shogun controlled stand up and one fight. But, would be more suprised if he finished Hendersen. So I feel this is a good play.
SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
Alvarez -220 v. Chandler, and UFC....
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