[proposition joe]

1) Avoid expecting the *best* of anyone. I expected BJ to perform up to his potential. How often does that happen? Obviously, the argument for Diaz was solid and the fight played out exactly how Diaz backers said it would. This was no fluke. It was ignorance on my part to idealize BJ's talents (he is one of my favorite fighters) and bet with emotion rather than logic. This, and my CroCop bets, were school-girl fantasy bets and I deserved to lose both.

2) Avoid Pick-em's. BJ/Diaz again. This was as obvious of a pick-em fight as I've ever seen and I ignored that because of my favoritism of BJ and overconfidence in my ability to dissect a fight. I will no longer bet on a Pick-em fight just because I think I know who will win.

3) Some losses are okay and some wins are bad. I'm totally fine with the Roop and Marshall bets that I lost and would make those plays again. I should not have bet on Jorgenson at -435 even though he won. I was chasing after the Jacoby loss and was lucky to have won. I will not allow myself to bet during an event again, ever.

4) Betting on a fight with two newcomers is playing Russian roullette. I still believe that many of the best line values will be on newcomers but I will only play them when they are facing guys who have fought on the big stage before. You don't know how someone will perform on the big stage and putting two guys with that many variables into a fight leaves an unpredictable outcome.

For 138, 139, Fox 1, and TUF 14 I will be playing less fights per card with more $$ on my picks that I do make. Selectivity will be my key.

[bjpenn85]

Good asessment. Pickem fights are only for smaller wagers, for fun, or involving parlays. Very important, point.
I think there is value many times in newcomers. Newcomers should come from a good camp, like carmont this saturday that trains out of the tristar gym. When a guy come from a good camp that very often indicates talent, good traning partners, potentially good game plan etc, which is much more important than 3 or 4 KOs in the first round in an organization free from talented fighters.

[TheCalculator]

Yeah -- for me Mitrione vs. Kongo was the biggest "pick'em" and I did a very small play on Mitrione. When you're not sure -- better to stay clear.


I would bet on Jorgensen against Curran all day long. Chasing losses is definitely one of the big things to "untrain" ourselves.

The opposite side of that one is to be too confident on a pic and betting too big. Obviously -- winning the EMOTIONAL GAME is 50% of wagering success imo (just like stock trading).

There is more unpredictability and more value. In UFC 138 -- many new guys. I've done my homework and we'll see how my plays pan out. Miocic was a great choice in UFC 136. Jacoby was a fail in the last one (I would still bet for him against Tavares cause it would be a stand up war). You hit and miss.

I see lots of guys betting on MMA do the mistake of betting for old favorites and heroes. To be successful, I think it's critical to separate the fan from the wagerer. Do I like Diaz as a human being? Not really... However, I was very confident he was going to dissect BJ like he did.

Another critical factor is: THE ONLY THING THAT MATTERS IS THE NOW. Fighters do NOT stand still. They're either on their way to their PEAK... or their on their way down from their peak. You could say there's a 3rd zone where they're maintaining their peak - but that's an illusion. You're either getting better or your not.

So when I handicap fights -- I do my homework and check to see if a fighter is past his prime (BJ, Crocop) and is on his way down... And I also factor -- is a fighter getting better from fight to fight? Where is he at on his developmental scale?

Choosing less picks... Hallmark of a pro right there. I'm friends with some heavy rollers in the MMA wagering roll and one of the best guys only makes 2 to 3 plays per event and does VERY well.

[Educ8d Degener8]

...

I see lots of guys betting on MMA do the mistake of betting for old favorites and heroes. To be successful, I think it's critical to separate the fan from the wagerer. Do I like Diaz as a human being? Not really... However, I was very confident he was going to dissect BJ like he did....

This.

Bet with your wallet, not with your heart.

Associates are always dumbfounded when they find out I'm fading a team / fighter that I root for...

It's business ;p