[MMASpeculator]

I'm liking this fight a lot based on entertainment AND betting value.

BJ Penn (-130):

16-7-2
5'9"
70" reach
1-1-1 last 3 fights: (Fitch/draw, Hughes/win, Edgar (loss)


Nick Diaz (+100):

25-7-0
6'1"
74" reach
3-0 last 3 fights (Daley/Win, Santos/Win, Noons/Win)


Let's get the discussion started.

It will be a good one as they both love to stand and trade. BJ has very good boxing and head movement, and if you're anyone not named Frankie Edgar, you will probably be outboxed by his accurate strikes and bobble-head-like movement. Diaz, however, was able to outbox a professional boxer, KJ Noons, and also has a very good stiff jab. They both have granite chins, although BJ has never been knocked down. Cardio wise, it's easy to give it to Diaz as he's a triathelete and has gone 5 rounds on numerous occasions without ever fading.

As you can see, they both have skills. I think it will boil down to cardio and will, and Diaz cannot be questioned for either of those.

Standup -- Diaz (has the reach)
Ground -- EVEN (won world title BJJ, but haven't proved himself lately and Diaz is a Cesar Gracie BJJ blackbelt.. arguably the most difficult one to attain)
Cardio -- Diaz (Obvious)


I've put $100 on Diaz (+100) so far.. will probably put more on parlays come fight time.

[bogbat]

If BJ comes out and wrestles the way he did Fitch he should easily win 2/3 rounds.

[sirchadwick1]

Penn is smart and if NCAA Penn comes to fight (likely), Diaz is going to be frustrated and decisioned. At -130 or better I'm loving Penn.

[proposition joe]

Penn is smart and if NCAA Penn comes to fight (likely), Diaz is going to be frustrated and decisioned. At -130 or better I'm loving Penn.

Agreed. Any Penn beats Diaz. K-1 Penn, ADCC Penn, or NCAA Penn. It's his fight to lose.

[v1y]

Agreed. Any Penn beats Diaz. K-1 Penn, ADCC Penn, or NCAA Penn. It's his fight to lose.

lol, well i don't know if k-1 penn beats diaz, but i agree.

the only penn that loses this fight is kfc penn.

[MMASpeculator]

If BJ comes out and wrestles the way he did Fitch he should easily win 2/3 rounds.

I dunno if he'll use this game plan because Diaz is no slouch on the ground. And if he does this, he'll exhaust a lot of energy. And a gassed out BJ will be peppered with jabs all day in round 3.

I have a feeling this will stay standing. BJ is probably the better boxer but Diaz knows how use his reach really well and has amazing recovery even when he's caught like in the Daley and Gomi fight.

[flickavic]

I agree with MMASpeculator and I have been putting a little $ on Diaz each week...I think hes better standing,BJ has better wrestling,and a draw on the ground,Diaz huge advantage in the gas tank category.