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Jake Shields vs Jake Ellenberger
After going on a great run, I lost $350 last night on Souza. I was very impressed with Luke, and agree with the decision.
Now it is time to win that money back. I will be behind Jake in this one, he has the experience edge, and if Henderson could not finish him, I doubt Ellenberger will. Thoughts?
Well first off they are both named Jake, but I get what you're saying. I like Shields for this fight. He should be able to grind out a win.
I'm actually leaning toward Ellenberger by Decision or TKO
Henderson could've finished if his gas tank didn't give out after round one.
Ill probably wait to place my bet on Ellenberger till I can squeeze out a little more.
I'm not sure. I really believe Ellenberger will be able to sprawl and brawl with Shields.
I just believe Shields has fought much better competition. If you compare an opponent they both fought, Ellenberger lost to Condit, while Shields defeated Condit the same night that he defeated Okami as well!
He defeated Okami? Maybe on the scorecards but if you really watched that fight you'd know he didn't "beat" Okami. Also Ellenberger also had a 10-8 round arguably against Condit and arguably won that fight. MMA math really shouldn't be used for this fight. It's all about whether or not Shields can get Ellenberger down and I believe Ellenberger can stuff takedowns and brawl. He is heavy handed. If Shields can get him down though it's a different ball game entirely.
Agreed.Originally Posted by Jordan23
Good points.
I've been torn on this fight, but right now I am definitely leaning toward ellenberger.
You all are going to see even more technique and power in his stand up. He's been training hard with kings mma and his striking is vicious and ever improving. Both my room mates train there and I've gone in to watch, and jake looks mean and hungry. He's also been going into reign's gym and is working the sprawl with munoz. Sprawl and brawl is definitely going to be his game plan I think.
Sheilds took hendo's power in the first, yes. But I think ellenberger has massive power as well and won't be gassing.
Another thing to note is that shields is not necessarily a power td artist. Against hendo he was successful with str8 shots, but usually he gets a td in scrambles and transitions, or gets them int he clinch. He's very fluid with his grappling and being able to maintain a favorable position, but its going to be hard against ellenberger to get him down. And if he does, ellenberger showed good sub defense when in trouble against rocha. However, one concern I have is size, as shields is big at ww and I've heard ellenberger is a tad small at ww when compared to other guys. He could very well be in trouble if shields gets a good position on the ground.
As a dog I like jake. Stylistically, he has the tools to win this fight and the difference will be in the stand up. I'm tempted to place on him now, but I think shields' line might get hit a bit more and jake will be more of a dog, although the line could go the opposite way too.
on the grappler...resume is just too good....and although his strking is still lacking,it` looked much,much better in the gsp fight....
you keep seeing people "want" shields to lose...but aside from gsp,he keeps grinding out high quality opponents....
i actually like ellenberger..he`s entertaining to watch....but i`m not going against shields with an upper mid-level guy who usually falls a bit short vs top competition..and struggles a bit with excellent grapplers.....i see another story-like loss here...
shields is just too damned consistent....
Ellenberger has power, but his array of striking is quite one-dimensional, he doesnt throw many combos
Well said. There's definitely potential to make money off Ellenberger, but I just don't feel comfortable betting against Shields.
Shields also has that 'it' factor that allows him to win undeserved decisions, and Ellenberger might not (see Condit fight).
you'll see some variety in his strikes if he gets the chance to get off, trust me. Kings mma has done wonders to his stand up, there are a dozen guys there who out weight him by a good amount and are tenative to spar with him. Its truly improved leaps and bounds... This is all just from my one visit to the gym and from what I have heard from friends who train there, but I believe them when there is a lot of hype talk surrounding one of the camp's 'big name' fighters. If he can utilize a nice sprawl and keep shields from getting close on a shot or clinching, he should win.
Again, I'm torn on this, but if he can keep it upright he will blast shields, mark my words. Shields won't have to worry about a piston jab ala gsp, he'll have to worry about big power in both hands...
Obviously if ellenberger can't keep it upright he'll likely get smothered in shields' transistioning hump fest and lose a ud. And yes, this is a very real and probably likely outcome.
In addition, the dude above pointed out shields' consistency which is very true,.... the guy finds a way to win!
Outside of gsp he has won almost all his fights, albiet he has had some close fights in those wins, perhaps didn't deserve a couple in some eyes, but nevertheless he gets the W. Ellenberger is still considered a 'B' level fighter I guess or mid tier as the poster above commented. I want to be biased and say ellenberger is A level and a contender (which I think he might be one day), but objectively shields is A level and he's fighting a B level guy, someone he usually handles. And again shields' size might be too much for ellenberger to utilize a sprawl and brawl..
I just think the odds might be appealing enough to favor a nice play on ellenberger. If he goes up even more, say +170 or higher, I'll be stomping on that line. I was talked down in the sherdog forum to not slam ellenberger's line when he fougth pierson. He was -160 and I thought that was a FUCKINGGG STEAL! However, I only put down 6 bills, when I knew deep down he was gonna own and I should have bet half my bankroll instead (we all have these retrospective feelings haha)... I realize shields isn't pierson, not even close, but I have a similar gut feeling on this one and see the dog line as very appealing...
Let's keep the dicussion going on this fight, fellas. I'm glad we are torn on it, that is usually a good thing so we can see both sides of the table and really break this one down so we make the right plays. Cheers.
*edit: I hate that they're both named jake....
Last edited by MMAbetMASTA; 09-12-11 at 07:15 PM.
I really don't know much about ellenberger but people seem to have a high opinion on him
Ellenberger via TKO, 60% -- Jake Shields via Submission, 25% -- Decision win for either, 7.5%
I'm taking Ellenberger in this fight. My record in UFC is 42-9 since UFC 126.
Actually, Jesus was even more arrogant and never talked in percentages, just guarantees.
Where did you get these percentages? Shields wins by submission over 3x more often than he wins by decision? You should make a killing this event considering the line for decision is like -115 and the line for inside the distance is +513. Also Ellenberger inside the distance is +337. No matter how you play it if you take Shields and Ellenberger inside the distance or even fight does not go distance at +180 you will make a killing 85% of the time. You can even wait for TKO/sub props and make even more profit.
Not betting props, just gonna bet Ellenberger. If Shields win this fight, it will likely be by submission, and I think Ellenberger will knock him out before he gets trapped in a submission. If it goes to decision, I think Ellenberger takes it. He will do more damage. I honestly believe that Ellenberger is the real favorite in this fight. Just like I believed Clay Guida should have been the favorite in his fight against Pettis. Guida was the better fighter, and so is Ellenberger.
With a pick like Ring over Timmy, I'm sure that record will come back to earth.
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I've hit plenty of "That guy has no shot" underdogs. People thought I was crazy for taking Nedkov against Cane at UFC 134 or George Roop at +560 against Josh Grispi a coupe months ago.
I hit Tito Ortiz over Ryan Bader BIG at +400 when literally NOT ONE PERSON I knew agreed with me that he would win.
That 42-9 record consists of fights where fighters had much less of a shot than Nick Ring does, so I confidently stand by my pick.
Can you link us to proof of these picks? It surely wasn't here.
Buddy if you are going to make up this garbage at least bump that record up to 70-2. lets be serious
LOL... right. Going 42-9 (82%) and mixing in a lot of big dogs is about as likely as a whore saving herself for marriage.
Even the best cappers are usually around 60-70% on wins.
I'm surprised he doesn't at least link us to his tapology page. Is a new troll born here every day? Or is it just a new name?
I've been betting personally and giving picks to my friends who bet. I have posted them on my facebook for my friends now and then, but that's about it. I've been keeping track of my bets since UFC 126. I didn't bet on UFC regularly before then, maybe a couple times a year. When it comes to capping, I do well with most sports, but am best at UFC. I came here to share my picks with you. If my record wasn't so good, I wouldn't have bothered coming here to help others. I'm not some mastermind. I'm just a stand-up comedian from Los Angeles who happens to be good at this. Comedy and sports take up most of my life.
It's not news to me that internet message boards are full of sh!t-heads, so I'm not surprised to be on the attack right away.
You guys wouldn't believe my MLB record, either, I bet. In the three years that I have been picking MLB games, I have not come across ONE SINGLE capper that picks as well as I do. I am better than the pro's. I just don't know the first thing about making money by capping.
I can't seriously expect anybody to really believe me, 'cos I don't know if I would, either. I guess I'll prove myself when I give out my Fight Night picks after the weigh-ins. Never had a losing card, worst I've done is 4-2.
God I hope I don't sound like this to other people, but I'm sure I do. FML
Are you Joe Rogan?! Maybe even Joey Coco Diaz???!
But seriously, will you be creating a thread and posting your picks, perhaps that will prove the doubter wrong after a few months?
Roop was never 560, and anyone bragging about betting big on Tito, well...
haha yeah just noticed tht, best Roop got to was +400
Ellenberger has a good shot. I always see him as relentless and surprisingly stays out of trouble.
Small play on Ellenberger myself. GL everyone
Once I saw stand up comedian and the name gabe I was personally hoping for Gabriel Iglesias.
No, but I know them both. Rogan's sidekick is a buddy of mine. Joey Diaz did a set on my birthday and it was the hardest I've ever laughed in my life.
Yeah, I'll be posting my picks. That's why I'm here.
Last edited by gabe; 09-16-11 at 02:27 PM.
I'm 99% sure I got him at +560. It was over +500, for sure.
Recordkeeping FTW!
:d :d :d
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