[snufflyjoe]

I was checking out the props for the next ufc card and came across this...Am I the only one who see's value here?

Both guys like to trade on the feet, Lytle has never been T/KO'd (except by cut) he has never been subbed either. Lytle has pro boxing experience and has a god like chin, and we know after the condit fight that Hardy can be KO'd

I believe there is much more than a 7.69% of Lytle winning by KO.

here is the rest of the props..


Lytle by sub +300
Lytle by Decision +225
Lytle by ko +1200
Hardy by ko +450
Hardy by decision +187
Hardy by submission +1000




I went ahead and put £10 on it, anyone else see value here?

[Wrecked]

I see hardy winning, but it's a good hedger definitely.

[cheeese]

I'm liking Hardy by sub. When Lytle breaks both his hands on Hardy's head he might tap out.

[FightFightFight]

Eurobook?

[snufflyjoe]

Eurobook?

paddy power

[Vaughany]

Is good value I guess. Bare in mind that Lytle rarely wins by TKO or KO though, last one was against Kyle Bradley in 2008. For Lytle to TKO/KO Hardy I think he'd need Hardy to come in to the fight with a complacent attitude and to engage in a full-out close quarter brawl with him. Unfortunately Hardy has already got that out of his system in the Condit fight, and combined with the fact that Hardy has to win this fight I'd be very surprised if Hardy doesn't try to be as elusive as possible.

[snufflyjoe]

Is good value I guess. Bare in mind that Lytle rarely wins by TKO or KO though, last one was against Kyle Bradley in 2008. For Lytle to TKO/KO Hardy I think he'd need Hardy to come in to the fight with a complacent attitude and to engage in a full-out close quarter brawl with him. Unfortunately Hardy has already got that out of his system in the Condit fight, and combined with the fact that Hardy has to win this fight I'd be very surprised if Hardy doesn't try to be as elusive as possible.

Yes of course it is a risky bet, and I don't see Lytle ko as the most probable outcome but I do see a lytle ko more probable than a Hardy sub, or hardy ko, (not a good reason to put any serious ££ down) but the reward is worth the risk imo (for 10 bucks anyway)

Who knows , there might be an amazing SOTN style submission and and amazing back and forth brawl for FOTN on the other fights and a knockout might be Lytles only shot for a bonus, and we know that dudes loves his bonuses lol!

[Poppa Catfish]

I like Lytle to win via "bullshit" decision

[Nick The Greek]

For a guy nicknamed "Lights Out" Chris Lytle sure doesn't get a lot of KOs.

[capone1899]

For a guy nicknamed "Lights Out" Chris Lytle sure doesn't get a lot of KOs.

What he said

[kmdubya]

I'm putting some money on Lytle in this one. I just see him with more ways to win and dominate the fight. Plus I think Lytle looked so bad against Ebersole, that people are holding that against him too much. Ebersole is a bad dude who is a much better fighter than people give him credit for.

Hardy is exciting, but so one dimensional. The UFC pushed him to the top way too quickly (trying to capitalize on the UK market) and now they're stuck because he can't rebuild against mid-tier/undercard talent.

[Fiasco01]

So does this one go to the judges? Over 2.5 rounds?

[omalley21]

Hardy by decision.

[Vaughany]

Chris Lytle: "They didn’t pick me and Dan to be there to put on a boring fight. So if you think I’m going to try to sit there and get him on the ground and hold him down for 15 minutes and then dry hump him, that’s not going to happen. So you’re going to get what you pay - you’re going to get a good fight out of it. That’s all I can guarantee. It’s going to be fun to watch."

[kmdubya]

Chris Lytle: "They didn’t pick me and Dan to be there to put on a boring fight. So if you think I’m going to try to sit there and get him on the ground and hold him down for 15 minutes and then dry hump him, that’s not going to happen. So you’re going to get what you pay - you’re going to get a good fight out of it. That’s all I can guarantee. It’s going to be fun to watch."

Anthony Johnson said the same thing before he fought Hardy (so did Kos before his fight with Daley).

Two guys who need a win, one probably more than the other. I think Lytle still tries to find a sub opportunity. Lytle is not known to look for the "Dry Hump Of The Night" bonus from Dana.

[Vaughany]

Anthony Johnson said the same thing before he fought Hardy (so did Kos before his fight with Daley).

Two guys who need a win, one probably more than the other. I think Lytle still tries to find a sub opportunity. Lytle is not known to look for the "Dry Hump Of The Night" bonus from Dana.

I dont think Kos and Johnson are valid comparisons though, they were different situations. There was genuine dislike between Semtex and Kos so Koscheck wanted to humiliate Daley the best way he knew how, so was smart and talked up his stand-up game to lure Daley in to a false scene of security. And Lytle and Johnson are completely different fighters and at different stages of their careers. Rumble is young, raw, and genuinely thinks he has a shot at being a champ at WW so is looking to win fights in the easiest way possible in order to advance up the ladder quickly. He is isn't interested in putting on "exciting fights" or being a company man. Lytle on the other hand is on brisk of retiring, and similarly to Rich Franklin knows he isn't gonna be close to contending for the title, so is better off acting the "company man" and satisfying the bosses. Plus he is one of the most straight up and genuine dudes in the UFC, is just not in his nature to say one thing and do the exact opposite.

[kmdubya]

I dont think Kos and Johnson are valid comparisons though, they were different situations. There was genuine dislike between Semtex and Kos so Koscheck wanted to humiliate Daley the best way he knew how, so was smart and talked up his stand-up game to lure Daley in to a false scene of security. And Lytle and Johnson are completely different fighters and at different stages of their careers. Rumble is young, raw, and genuinely thinks he has a shot at being a champ at WW so is looking to win fights in the easiest way possible in order to advance up the ladder quickly. He is isn't interested in putting on "exciting fights" or being a company man. Lytle on the other hand is on brisk of retiring, and similarly to Rich Franklin knows he isn't gonna be close to contending for the title, so is better off acting the "company man" and satisfying the bosses. Plus he is one of the most straight up and genuine dudes in the UFC, is just not in his nature to say one thing and do the exact opposite.

Agreed. I think what I was trying to say was I take a lot of the pre-fight talk with a grain of salt. Lytle has good boxing, and I agree he is more concerned about putting on a good fight at this stage of his career. I just hope he's not subborn enough to play directly into Hardy's strengths for the whole fight.

I'm still putting my money on Lytle, but it's based more on their paper differences, and not how I think the fight will play out. Should be an exciting night regardless.

[Vaughany]

Agreed. I think what I was trying to say was I take a lot of the pre-fight talk with a grain of salt. Lytle has good boxing, and I agree he is more concerned about putting on a good fight at this stage of his career. I just hope he's not subborn enough to play directly into Hardy's strengths for the whole fight.

I'm still putting my money on Lytle, but it's based more on their paper differences, and not how I think the fight will play out. Should be an exciting night regardless.

Yeah you're right, majority of the time you should take what they say before a fight with a grain of salt.

[Chairib]

If Lytle can land a left hook Hardy will go down.

[Jordan23]

Hardy needs this fight a lot more... if Hardy wins they will probably set up Hardy/Ebersole which I would heavily favor Ebersole in.

[kmdubya]

Hardy needs this fight a lot more... if Hardy wins they will probably set up Hardy/Ebersole which I would heavily favor Ebersole in.

There are a lot of fights I would favor Ebersole in right now. The guy is no joke.

[Vaughany]

Hardy is -120 favourite now on bookmaker

[Kaladarus]

Lytle could try something fancy here, but he likes his fight of the nights. He also had many fights where he has kept his word to stand. It would be great strategy to take Hardy down, but I don't see Lytle attempting a takedown here. It's a hard fight to call. The spot I've seen with the best value has been the Hardy by decision prop.

[spargament]

If I had to choose, I'd go not Lytle by submission, I have NO clue what the lines are for those props, but I figure you'd see some value...considering Lytle has subbed plenty of folks, but Dan Hardy doesn't tap to joint-lock submissions (all of his submission losses are to chokes), he's tough as nails (its been more than 5 years since he WAS submitted, which was of course, a choke), and while Lytle has tapped many a man, its been ten fights since he last won a fight via a choke submission, and 6+ years since he was using chokes with any regularity..back between 99-04 you fought Chris Lytle, you better get ready for him to try to choke you out, and you better have good sub defense..but it's been quite some time. I saw somewhere that not Hardy by submission was in the-2200 range, I'd guess there'd be more value in the not Lytle by submission, though I could definitely be wrong.

[Squareguy]

Tough to give an edge to either fighter, I'm staying away from this one for sure.

[supershark]

I dont see any way this fight doesn't go to decision

[spargament]

I dont see any way this fight doesn't go to decision

it would have to be a lucky as hell flash ko, or if lytle can muster a double leg td and gnp hardy out...neither of those are likely at all though.

[Vaughany]

Lytle throws wild bombs...could easily connect with Hardy and drop him. And Lytle is getting old and has taken a lot of damage over the years, although Hardy isn't the KO artist that he's made out to be I wouldn't rule out a TKO if he connects hard with a hook or upper-cut, or even a knee which Lytle is susceptible to. Obviously decision is a lot more likely though

[GoldRush7]

I dont see lytle knocking out hardy... sub very more likely, but even then I dont know because he survived some major armbar from gsp

[NunyaBidness]

Comparing Lytle's submissions to GSP's isn't very useful. GSP retains top position above all else and tries to get the sub. Lytle has a more reckless submission style.

[Vaughany]

30/1 on paddy for KO of the Night

[snufflyjoe]

Lytle by ko line has dropped from +1200 to +800 , that line sounds a lot more accurate