[brucesmall]

Call me crazy, but he has nothing to lose and everthing to win, I think he will come out aggressive and push the fight. Im guessing a first round stoppage, impossible? No, he is a fighter at heart and I think he can steal this one. Plus you get great vaule. Vitor wins too.

Opinions and thoughts?

[RivaTrader]

Anything can happen but it doesn't mean that it's probable to happen unless there's a good reason for it. "nothing to lose and everything to win" "fighter at heart" "can steal this one" "first round stoppage" "come out aggressive and push the pace". Those are claims, but either they are very vague or lacking solid reasoning.

[brucesmall]

Well I just think he has a better mind set coming in. I think that he can hook with best. That and I guess I'm just wanting him to win. I dunno but dont count him out.

[kmdubya]

I think he had a better shot at winning against Bader, which at the time, was not saying much. Ring rust aside, how does Tito win this fight? Rashad is going to be too fast for a TKO. Decision GnP? Rashad is likely to dominate that as well. Submission? Maybe. But I don't think lightning strikes twice here.

[brucesmall]

I think toe to toe Ortiz will be pushing more and I think that might throw Evans off, I dunno like i said before I'm hoping and I do believe it may happen. I jumped on Hendo last weekend, but really was that an upset? This would be a big upset, I got a feeling that Ortiz is gonna find a way to win and if he doesn't i think it goes to a decision.

[suicidekings]

Ortiz knew that Bader is an inferior fighter. Rashad is an entirely different opponent and I would be very surprised to see an aggressive start from Tito in this fight. Rashad is also smart enough to understand that Tito can hurt him if he gets sloppy. Tito needs to fight a smart fight to win this one and test Rashad's fitness early.

[brucesmall]

Fingers Crossed Ortiz wins with shear luck or a good ole' skull crushing blow to the head. Two reasons here, I want him to pull off a miracle run and second Im puttn money on the guy.

[sirchadwick1]

I've never been a Tito fan, but I'm going for him in this fight. It would be amazing if he pulled it off and got in line for a title shot lol. I've got 1u on Ortiz by Dec at +644. Hoping for the best!

[RollPlayer]

After seeing Hamill dominate Ortiz on the ground I think the play has to be rashad by Dec. Tito cant wrassle anymore

[ufcmma36]

definitely rolling w/ Ortiz again here... Im not trying to give back all my winnings from his last fight and Miesha Tate wins in rd 4 +1900 so Im gonna play it real safe, but I believe there is still value in Tito!

[Beelzebubzy]

with a promised title shot, one must assume Rashad will strike for a bit then shoot for a takedown to play it safe.

[iQon]

Amazing what a win can do for you in the gambling community.

[brucesmall]

Amazing what a win can do for you in the gambling community.

I'm not saying he is gonna win and I'm not betting a large amount. I see value and a chance thats all.

[hels]

There is no value on Rashad in this fight... Tito was once a top tier fighter that is able to find some magic here and there. Either a small play on Tito or stay away. BOL

[FlashinLeather]

with you on vitor, on ortiz not so much...

[v1y]

Amazing what a win can do for you in the gambling community.

Yes.. amazing how winning a fight might make people reconsider your chances of winning against other fighters...

[BIGDAY]

Fight goes the distance is my only play on this fight. GL guys

[iQon]

Yes.. amazing how winning a fight might make people reconsider your chances of winning against other fighters...

That's the thought process of a fool.

If we throw out the last chance "stipulation" --- Ortiz loses to Bader, and gets this fight... this thread doesn't exist. A grand total of $27.32 is bet on Tito across every book in the world. But of course, Tito Ortiz is now the value party everyone wants to be fashionably late to. Evans is in a completely different class from Ryan Bader, I wouldn't even waste my time here.


Then again, I said this would happen.

If I were a book, I would actually set the line closer the PK, just because people are idiots and will bet on Ortiz.

[ANGRYBLACK]

There is no value on Rashad in this fight... Tito was once a top tier fighter that is able to find some magic here and there. Either a small play on Tito or stay away. BOL

THIS.
Rashad's the play here, but not at those odds. I'm dropping 10 units on UFC 133, so $50 on Ortiz won't kill me...

[v1y]

That's the thought process of a fool.

To not take into account every piece of information when analyzing a fight would be foolish.

If you asked anyone pre Bader, "What % chance do you give Ortiz of beating Rashad Evans", and then asked them the same question post-Bader, if they didn't adjust that percentage (or at least justify why they're not moving it) then they're a moron.

[Kaladarus]

To not take into account every piece of information when analyzing a fight would be foolish.

If you asked anyone pre Bader, "What % chance do you give Ortiz of beating Rashad Evans", and then asked them the same question post-Bader, if they didn't adjust that percentage (or at least justify why they're not moving it) then they're a moron.

Winning certain fights isn't relevant to handicapping future fights. The methods the fighter wins by and the performance they have are. Even by what you are saying you are not going by the win. You are going by the performance. Matt Hammil beating Jon Jones does nothing for me and shouldn't really be relevant because the win itself has nothing to do with anything. Yes, you should take into account everything, but record and win/loss ratio don't even remotely matter in MMA. When you start using MMA math and win/loss ratio or wins against certain fighters you are asking for your money to be taken from you.