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Tate / Coenen Discussion... $$$??? (Long Read)
I think this will be closer than I originally thought, but nevertheless, I still like a moderate to large str8 play on tate. Out of all the fights on the card I like this one the most with regard to my confidence in its prediction and the fight odds. As of right now with the current odds on the card, this is my moderate/big play I am thinking. However, I would like to get some feedback and some outside insight before I play anything!
The line finally opened on my bookie site, and tate is at -105 with marlos at -125. The reason I am trying to get early information / discussion going for this fight is because I think this line will move a lot, just like cruz did at ufc 132 (he was at -200 come fight time, opened at even, I got him at -140 about 9 days before the fight). I think tate will be around -140/50 come fight night, if not higher.
This is a classic striker vs wrestler, but marlos is great off her back and has lots of win by sub (almost all sub wins via armbar). Marloes got overpowered by santos on the feet - that beast was just too damn much for the gorgeous ‘rumina’. Outside of cyborg, I think marlos has some of the best striking in women’s mma. However, marlos narrowly got the better of kaufman on the feet ( many people thought kaufman got the better of the striking, but I gave it to marlos for the leg kicks). Marlos subbed kaufman after getting muscled around and kaufman got too aggressive. Marloes got the better of Liz Carmouche on the feet, but Liz did land some leather and could survive on the feet. Her fight with Liz led me to believe this might have been one of the first times Marlos had fought a powerful wrestler with great top control, as she was out wrassled for 2 ½ rounds before getting that miracle sub. Marlos’ other big loss before cyborg was a UD loss against Belgian judoka Cindy Dandois. While I didn’t see the fight nor read the play by play, I’m assuming marlos was overpowered and out grappled by Dandois. This is a big assumption, but I don’t think the judoka won a UD by out striking marlos. I believe marlos’ biggest problem is against people who are just as strong as her, can survive on the feet, and have a powerful grappling game; especially someone with a powerful top control and great sub defense.
I still think kaufman is one of the most physically powerful at 135, and the fact that Meisha Tate kept it competitive with her (losing on the feet but landing some leather of her own. She survived – barely – in round one), and got her down and kept her there for an entire round says a lot. Since losing that competitive fight Tate has been on a tear. She gave zola fausto (now zola gurgel) her only loss (although I thought both fujii and aguilar were robbed against fausto!) and did so with extreme dominance. Tate took her down at will, and during the few exchanges on the feet tate got the better of and in my eyes out struck the undefeated kickboxer in the few exchanges they had. Now, zola is a natural 125er and tate was much bigger and I think that was a huge factor. I believe Marlos is one of the bigger 135ers out there and meisha will not have a strength advantage – I think they will be equal with regard to physical power / muscle. So I don’t think meisha will have a size advantage, nor will marlos (except in height / reach).
Now everyone expects meisha to take marlos down, and so do I. Yet I think meisha has the ability to hang on the feet, demonstrated by her exchanges with kaufman and fausto (also did well on the feet against finnish brawler kujala). She also took some of Kaufman’s best shots and I think kaufman has way more power than marloes does at 135. However, while I think Tate won’t get stopped or KO’d, I think Marlos will be the superior striker and will win this fight if it plays out on the feet the majority of the time. This is why I think and REALLY HOPE that tate should have a clear wrasslin minded gameplan, and she couldn’t have picked a better camp than team alpha male to help prepare such a gameplan – a wrestling power house of a camp. Can Tate get marlos down, and get her down a lot/ for the majority of the fight? I think so, but I am not too confident. ….
What do you all think? This is one of the big ‘iffs’ per se.
The fact tate got kaufman down, a physically powerful woman, leads me to think she can get marlos down. But with what frequency?? Against smaller sized competition of late (akano and zola), tate had no problem getting tds, but against a large woman like kaufman, tate had to really work for it (except for the 2nd round when she completely dominated by getting kaufman down asap and keeping her there).
Now, what leads me to believe that tate can get marlos down frequently is obviously Liz Carmouche. Liz wasn’t going for tdds in the first rnd against marlos, they seemed to feel each other out and only toward the end did liz try to clinch and get in close. In the 2nd all the way till the 4th round when she got caught in that triangle, Liz was taking marlos down frequently and keeping her there. Is Liz a better wrestler than Tate? Perhaps… Liz also has a nice judo background to go with high school wrestling, which might have helped with her td and positional success. With regard to pure wrestling though, tate is more accomplished. I also think tate is a bit bigger than Liz and a bit more athletic. These factors lead me to believe that Meisha can get marlos down with frequency. Do you agree?
However, once it gets to the mat can Tate survive Marloes’ sub onslaught, unlike carmouche??? I believe the answer is yes, and therefore I think the big question in this fight comes down to who is the better grappler???
I will say meisha.
Most people will lean toward marlos as the better grappler because of all her sub wins, but I think people don’t realize how smooth tate is on the ground… Case point – Hitomi Akano. Akano is BY FAR a better grappler than marlos – someone please explain why I might be wrong with that assertation, because this is a huge factor in my prediction. Tate out grappled Akano. It was competitive, but in the end akano was in more danger from sub attempts than tate was (tate put her in two very close fight ending armbars if I remember correctly and took her back on a few occasions threatening with a rnc), and tate also got better positioning throughout their grappling exchanges and defended akano’s sub attempts well.
I think marlos is great off her back, but not too dynamic. Don’t flame me, because I am not disrespecting her ground game. If you are getting over aggressive like kaufman or Liz was, marlos will get you in a sub off her back with those long, sexy legs. Yet I think that if for one, you have good sub defense, and two, you have great positioning/control, then I believe you can control marlos on the ground, keep her there, and do damage without getting caught. I believe Tate can do these things.
I predict tate to test it on the feet, perhaps surprise people with improved stand up, and use that to change levels and get marlos to the ground. Marlos will threaten, but I think tate will be more than prepared. Tate will not be receiving her first sub loss, but rather winning the title in what I think will be a boring 5 rounds, with a few interesting sub attempts from marlos to keep it interesting (I actually just had a gut feeling when writing this that we might see tate sub marlos). IN the end, I’m thinking a UD for TATE. This is the wrestler’s era, whether we like it or not… If Marlos wins, I think it will be early and via a flash KO, but again, tate took kaufman’s best, clean shots and still didn’t go down.
What am I missing? Where am I wrong? Do you all agree or disagree? Give me your personal breakdown!
OVERALL – do you like str8 plays on tate and why/why not???
Any insight and serious replies are much appreciated! Sorry for the lengthy breakdown and thanks for your time, GL!!!
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Originally Posted by rocky mattioli
Yet I think Carmouche is a bit smaller than tate and not as athletic, so I still think tate will be powerful enouigh to muscle marlos down, seeing that Liz was successful. Good points and vid, thanks man.
cheeese gave NunyaBidness 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
GL ladies and gents!
