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Wanderlei "Axe Murderer" Silva vs. Chris "The Crippler" Leben
This is the fight I'm most excited to see on Saturday, but it's also the one where I'm most unsure about who to bet on. Could easily see either guy KO'ing the other. Kind of leaning towards Leben though as I've never seen him knocked out cold, while Wanderlei has had his lights put out several times in recent years.
Who do you guys like?
Personally, I am not betting the fight, other than giving serious consideration to an under 2.5 rounds play. But I do see Wand winning. He's the better fighter by a good margin. He also has the power to stop Leben with strikes, which is gonna make it really hard on Chris to score the upset. If you've noticed, pretty much every Leben KO victory has come after he took a bunch of punishment. Don't think he can get away with that here. And I most definitely don't believe he has the skillset to win a decision. Leben by decision seems the least likely outcome of this fight. His wrestling isn't special and he's not the type of guy to out point his opponent standing. It's a KO or bust for Leben.
Last edited by koscheckbaby; 06-28-11 at 08:48 PM.
Wandi's getting old bro. Go with Leben. Dude can take punishment. I'm on Leben for 1 Unit so far. GL
Wandy is looking pretty young these daysOriginally Posted by BIGDAY
Wandi's getting old bro. Go with Leben. Dude can take punishment. I'm on Leben for 1 Unit so far. GL
if lidell couldnt finish him could leben? i would like to see leben win as he is a fighter i like but i doubt he takes this.
Under 2.5 Rds is probably the smartest bet, I'd even go Under 1.5 Rds. This should be a slugfest from the opening bell resembling the Daley-Diaz fight a couple months back.
Hard match to bet on, i want wandy to win (see avy) but if I had to bet on this fight i might slightly lean towards leben. Its kind of like a whos chin do you trust more type of deal.
I can see this fight going the distance. Both men are terrified because one on of them is going to add on another loss that they can't afford
i think citing the liddell decision is a bad analogy....liddell does(or did) k.o. people...but he was a tactical striker.....as was silva`s other recent decison loss(rich franklin)...leben is a give and take striker...he gets involved in throw downs....
neither guy is going anywhere regardless of the outcome....silva is an icon....and leben is one of the more exciting fighters in the organization(if exciting=mayhem...and in dana`s eyes it does).....leben might consider trying to grapple with silva....silva won`t even consider it...and from what i`ve seen of silva,he`s a very,very difficult guy to keep on his back...he`ll be the naturally bigger guy here..
i caught "does not go the distance" early at -130....not a bag shot...but given the stylistic match-up,i think those odds are more than fair...
both guys know what`s expected of them by the organization....and i expect they`ll deliver....it could be bloody and crazy....with either guy going to sleep at any time...
i can`t speak for the japanese fighters on silva`s resume(i`m not familiar with many of them),but the lefty`s that i could identify on silva`s record(franklin/mirko and belfort...strikers all) all beat him....2 were stoppages...but you can make the case that all 3 were a level above leben...
should be an interesting,fan friendly fight...
Last edited by rocky mattioli; 06-29-11 at 06:29 AM.
I'll be on Silva , he maybe old and past his prime but he still has better striking and more talent than Leben ever did
I think Rocky explained it pretty well. I don't think Leben vs Silva is stylistically a fight capable of going the distance unless they really stray from their styles. Liddell really wanted the Silva win and used his length well, as well as mixing in takedowns to avoid a late slugfest. Even still, Liddell got dropped twice. I feel confident Leben's wrestling and clinch game are incapable of controlling Wand for any length of time. Wand's defensive wrestling isn't great, but it isn't bad. He stopped Bisping pretty well. In terms of striking, Wand has been to decisions due to his opponents using speed and reach to stay away from a brawl, as well as threat of a takedown. Again, Leben is certainly not capable of that.
Leben's really not that skilled of a fighter. There is a stark difference between him and Wand. Wand was a champion. Leben has lost to guys like Kalib Starnes. Leben needs to make this fight ugly and hope his chin holds out before Wands. This is not Jay Silva, Luigi Fiorvanti, or Patrick Cote, who Leben could fight somewhat conservatively against to win a decision.
Last edited by koscheckbaby; 06-29-11 at 07:57 AM.
Me too. Small play on Silva. Leben has looked bad lately and this is a large step down in competition for Silva.
I would disagree with this statement, after the Rosholt fight he turned things around. Even in the Brian Stann fight he looked good despite falling on his own sword in the end of the first. Someone mentioned this already in the thread but its worth noting again as we will see this come in to play on saturday, Leben has an immense propensity to brawl and he's not the most technical striker in the pocket but his chin and desire to bang gets him through most exchanges. If you go back and watch the Akiyama fight, you will notice how many of those reckless exchanges he was a part of and how many of them he came out ahead in. He also has a very active guard which we probably wont get to see much of. My point being here, Leben is very under rated in the public eye, however the odds seem fairly accurate.
I personally handicapped this fight at -130 Leben and +120 Wandy, so it looks like I will be taking Wanderlei in this fight (Line is at +180 at the time of this post) but I think Leben has a real chance to put him to sleep. Fortunately Wandy has that same opportunity, I just don't see the probability being as high. I don't have any faith in Wandys chin, nor do I think he had the hand speed or footwork that Brian Stann brought which is EXACTLY what Leben has always had problems with. If Wanderlei moves well and doesn't stand in front of him, he will do well. But that is exactly what I expect Wanderlei to do.
With that said, I really think Leben is the winner in this matchup. Unfortunately my math isn't lining up with the books.
all i know is that if another TUF can beats a PRIDE legend, NickDiaz209/PRIDE>UFC might hang himdelf. He still hasn;t gotten over Forrest Griffin beating ShoGun/Rampage
Leben looked slower and more plodding than usual in that fight.Even in the Brian Stann fight he looked good despite falling on his own sword in the end of the first.
I could see an argument for that, but do you think the speed of Leben was truly slower or do you think maybe Stann was just much faster thus making Leben appear slower than usual?
Not really. Leben has always been sluggish and a bit of a plodder, but he looked even more lumbering than usual in that fight (which was probably why Stann almost sent him to the morgue so quickly). Either way, his lack of speed is why he struggles so much against guys who are more mobile and fleet of foot, as you mentioned.
Not sure that's a concern here though. Silva just plants his feet and starts chucking.
I feel like Leben was running off pure momentum when he went on the little streak; his striking did look a bit cleaner and i THOUGHT he had fixed all gas tank issues..this fight has the most question marks out of any matchup ive seen in a while...I don't think Wanderlei has a 'middle ground' anymore...two guys that will come out and perform very 'hit or miss' no pun intended.
I can't stand Leben but I think he will win
I think the 16 month layoff for Wandy will be a big factor here. I'm taking Leben +150.
pretty good post...everyone in here seems to love aaron simpson...and leben dummied his ass.....yeah,a stylistically different match-up...but i would have said (before the simpson fight) that leben matched up better with wanerlei than simpson...so,you never know...
i really need to see these guys standing together to get a feel for the size issue...
btw....are you saying that you saw silva as a +180 dog?......where?
Think he means Leben +180. Wanderlei´s best line was +130 opener on 5dimes
wasn`t aware that leben opened as the fave.... surprising....not surprising that silva `s the chalk now(given the extreme love some mma fans have for him)....
I like wandy in this one... I just think the bottom line is he is a better fighter... he's fought the who's who in the sport and knocked out some of the best. Granted he is getting up their in age, I still think he has the edge here.
Huh?
Wanderlei is -170 on 5dimes. What are you talking about? (Clearly not a typo issue either, you're just high with this post)
I like this angle too. Fighters coming off of major injuries/lay offs have been pretty cold for quite some time, with Barnett being one of the few exceptions. Not in love with Leben, but at + money can't turn it down.
Last edited by Poppa Catfish; 06-30-11 at 05:48 PM.
photo bomb!wandy is looking pretty young these days
he looks almost as good as joan rivers....
I like Silva here. He beat Bisping quite easily and I think Bisping was more of a threat to him than Leben. I still won't pay the current line though. Might hit a small prop bet for Silva by decision.
leben will accept another beating.leben only beats guys that gas.
Leben is known for having a very good chin which is why a lot of people were surprised when Stann KO'd him. It turns out that Leben ate a load of sweets after weigh ins and was vomiting through the night and day, leading all the way to his fight. This may have contributed to him being dehydrated and getting KO'd.
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