[corcoran65]

So this bout is coming up at 131 wo who do you think will win and what will the odds be.

Munoz is a powerful striker with a wrestling backround but i don't think his wrestling has been very effective as in the Okami fight. He throws big punches with good power. Has vry good GNP.

Maia's striking struggles but i beleive he will try to clinch munoz up and trip/toss munoz to the ground like against Sonnen. if maia gets on top of munoz i beleive its game over. Wrestlers dont like to be on their back and munoz diesnt have good BJJ.

so whats your thoguhts?

[Kaladarus]

I like Maia here. I think he outclasses Munoz in almost every aspect of the game except wrestling. I believe Maia will have a significant striking advantage come fight time and he should do well even if Munoz takes him down. Not really sure what the line will come out at, but if I can get a decent price on Maia I'll be taking him for sure.

[Vaughany]

Interesting match-up stylistically and difficult to judge. Pretty obvious that 3 outcomes are possible: Fight goes distance/ Munoz by TKO/KO / Maia by submission. Munoz is yet to face anybody who has elite BJJ like Maia, while Maia hasn't faced anybody with the KO power that Munoz has (apart from Marquardt which ended very quickly!). However, Maia has faced a fighter with high-level wrestling in Sonnen and ended that quickly. Maia's stand-up has developed since that Marquardt fight, he managed to go five rounds with a clowning Anderson of course, but defensively there are still some holes in his game which Munoz could exploit even with his rudimentary striking. Especially with regard to Maia's route to getting take-downs - he isn't the type to do an explosive double leg takedown, he likes to grab a hold and trip his opponent to the floor. To do this he obviously has to get close to the opponent which means he'll have to put himself in danger of getting caught by one of Munoz's bombs as attempts to clinch. I'll happily take Munoz if he's the dog and hedge it with Maia Submission of the Night. Munoz is going to have a size and strength advantage and obviously has high-level wrestling pedigree even if it hasn't translated that well in to MMA yet (at least offensively), however, it will be defensive wrestling that will be needed in this one rather than offensive as he'll be happy to take his chances standing with Maia.

[Straight Cash]

I like Maia to sub him here. Maybe hedged with a Munoz decision?

[NunyaBidness]

I like Maia to sub him here. Maybe hedged with a Munoz decision?

Munoz is more likely to KO him than win a decision. Not a good hedge, imo.

[RaiderNation MMA]

i dont think maia is going to able to trip and toss munoz, but it def gonna b a close fight

[Ladle]

Really interesting fight in which you can easily construct a scenario for either guy winning.

Munoz has an advantage in the stand-up because of his power alone, but it's also worth noting that he might have the worst striking defense of any high caliber fighter ever. It's like his face is strike-magnetic, and he doesn't have the chin to compensate for that. One of Munoz's big left hooks can spell trouble for anyone, but his defense is so porous that Maia can definitely put some leather on him too.

Wrestling-wise, Munoz is obviously superior, but while Maia totally lacks explosion and has no shot, once he gets position, he can finish. After all, he lateral dropped Chael Sonnen like a JV wrestling castoff. If he can manage to get in close on Munoz and put him on his back, he'll tap him without much incident. Munoz doesn't appear to have much of a grappling game beyond winging haymakers on top.

In addition to that, I think people are forgetting that Maia has a legitimate route to victory other than securing a takedown. One of the most important things to keep in mind is that he's probably the best in MMA - only rivaled by Shinya Aoki - at being able to pull guard deftly when he can't nail a takedown. When he's not hitting lateral drops, he can pull half guard and sweep from there, as he did against Nate Quarry. Maia isn't the standard "get a takedown then work from guard" prototype people imagine when they think of grapplers, and if he can pull guard and sweep Munoz, I think it's finito.

As for my bets for this fight, I think Maia wins Submission of the Night is a must-play, because if he does tap Munoz, it's likely to be something very swanky. I might hedge that with Munoz to win out-right, but I don't think it's crazy to think that Maia could win a decision here. He can tag Munoz on the feet - just like everyone else - and should the fight hit the ground, Maia will be very firmly in the driver's seat.

[bjpenn85]

Nice point you make on how maia set up his ground game.

[Ladle]

Nice point you make on how maia set up his ground game.

[The HOFF]

Opener:
Mark Munoz +160
Demian Maia -210

Current:
Demian Maia +100
Mark Munoz -140

[Kaladarus]

I hope Maia goes back to EV, I really like him at that price.

[Shane]

Loving that line right now. As long as Maia avoids an early KO, he should handle Munoz.

[NickDiaz209]

GUYS THIS IS A TRAP BET!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Munoz is very underrated and Maia is just a glorified Thales Leites...Munoz by decision

[Ladle]

GUYS THIS IS A TRAP BET!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Munoz is very underrated and Maia is just a glorified Thales Leites...Munoz by decision

If anything, Munoz is overrated. He's ridiculously hittable, has been dropped in four of seven of his UFC fights, doesn't have much on the ground besides throwing bombs, and probably deserved to lose his fight with Nick Catone.

Maia is a significantly more accomplished and effective grappler than Leites.

[Varker]

i'm kind of leaning towards munoz but thats a great price to get maia at.

[bjpenn85]

But why this matchup from the UFC? Its not like the ufc wants another maia vs anderson silva and munoz clearly may win this fight with the proper sprawl and brawl gameplan. Maybe diaz have a point. I dont think maia would have beaten chael sonnen today anyway, knowing how extremely dangerous he is even in the clinch. However, i dont like this 50 50 fights. So ill have to pass. Maybe a prop parlay tho.

[Ladle]

But why this matchup from the UFC? Its not like the ufc wants another maia vs anderson silva and munoz clearly may win this fight with the proper sprawl and brawl gameplan. Maybe diaz have a point. I dont think maia would have beaten chael sonnen today anyway, knowing how extremely dangerous he is even in the clinch. However, i dont like this 50 50 fights. So ill have to pass. Maybe a prop parlay tho.

If Maia wins, he'll get the same treatment as Jon Fitch at welterweight. If Munoz wins, they'll continue to build him towards a title eliminator.

[bjpenn85]

isolate vs the red carpet treatment, sure. I hate both fighter anyway. Maia for not having good enough strikes, and munoz for saying the exact same thing in every interview regardless of quesions asked.

[jin2daj]

great figth. real interesting to see where both these guys fit into the middleweight division.

im liking munoz though.

[sirchadwick1]

Wow... I'm liking Maia here up to about -200. I'm shocked people have been hammering Munoz. Sure he's getting better, but I think as soon as this one ties up Maia subs him. Probably late in the first. Took Demian at -135 and if he goes back to anywhere near EVEN again I'm going big. The only way I can see Munoz winning this is by (T)KO so I may hedge w/ that prop later.

[sirchadwick1]

Maia just hit +105 so I threw down 10u on him... couldn't resist.

[1nce]

I'm on Maia aswell, +105 is too high. Maia is the better striker IMO but Munoz has some serious power. Munoz won't be able to use his wrasslin in this fight due to Maia's wicked BJJ and if he does, then he's asking for trouble. Maia has way more ways to win this fight. I think a correct odds on Maia would be around -130 ish.

[bjpenn85]

i sure hope you have a big pocket, because you do got some big black balls. Are you that confident in maia? I mean, i hate munoz, but he is strong, has KO power, wrestling. He may punch maia to a blue belt.

[NickDiaz209]

If anything, Munoz is overrated. He's ridiculously hittable, has been dropped in four of seven of his UFC fights, doesn't have much on the ground besides throwing bombs, and probably deserved to lose his fight with Nick Catone. Maia is a significantly more accomplished and effective grappler than Leites.

I'm telling you...I saw a look in Munoz's eyes when I met him in San Diego at Nog's gym...he wins this fight...Maia got KO'd by a very very very overrated Nate Marquardt. I'd be surprised to see Maia win

[thesox0311]

Wow...just got Maia at +105, i thought it was a joke. Maia by sub in this one

[Vrakas]

both fighters have improved.it should be close.maia should get the win.

[Ladle]

I'm telling you...I saw a look in Munoz's eyes when I met him in San Diego at Nog's gym...he wins this fight...Maia got KO'd by a very very very overrated Nate Marquardt. I'd be surprised to see Maia win

You saw a look in his eyes? That's a very effective counter argument, Nick.

Munoz has the power to Maia to sleep, but as I explained before, Maia has several routes to victory too. You can't decisively call a winner one way or the other.

[corcoran65]

now i a lea ning maia. i only see munoz winning by ko where maia wins by sub or dec.

Maia hedged with Munoz by KO

[rocky mattioli]

maybe it`s my eyes,but it`s hard to believe that both these guys are 6`0 tall and 185........their body types just seem so different.....

not a munoz fan...so it`s hard for me to give an objective opinion....but the guy keeps winning...he has heart,sloppy power and tries hard in every fight....

i want to play maia....i wonder if he`s physical enough.....then i remember the sonnen fight and i think,he might just be...

both 6`0 and 185?.....one guy looks stocky and the other a bit wispy....

maybe it`s just that my perception is skewed...

[Ladle]

maybe it`s my eyes,but it`s hard to believe that both these guys are 6`0 tall and 185........their body types just seem so different.....

Yeah, it's a little odd. I wouldn't trust the listed heights though. Maia is deceptively tall; just look at him next to 6'2" Silva:

[rocky mattioli]

Yeah, it's a little odd. I wouldn't trust the listed heights though. Maia is deceptively tall; just look at him next to 6'2" Silva:

yeah...you`re probably exactly right......i can`t count the number of times boxrec incorrectly listed a fighter`s height....

[Kaladarus]

Maia just hit +105 so I threw down 10u on him... couldn't resist.

+116 at pinnacle I've hit him for several bets now.

[Kaladarus]

I'm telling you...I saw a look in Munoz's eyes when I met him in San Diego at Nog's gym...he wins this fight...Maia got KO'd by a very very very overrated Nate Marquardt. I'd be surprised to see Maia win

Munoz is going to accept the beating of his life. There is no way he KOs Maia here. Maia will school him on the feet.

[Poppa Catfish]

Maia is going to give Munoz the beating of his life? Let me take a minute for that to fully sink in.



hmmmmmm


Yeah, I don't get it.

[Poppa Catfish]

But why this matchup from the UFC? Its not like the ufc wants another maia vs anderson silva and munoz clearly may win this fight with the proper sprawl and brawl gameplan. Maybe diaz have a point. I dont think maia would have beaten chael sonnen today anyway, knowing how extremely dangerous he is even in the clinch. However, i dont like this 50 50 fights. So ill have to pass. Maybe a prop parlay tho.

Sounds like you and Ladle are on the same page, and I have to agree. Maybe take this fight to go the distance, most likely pass.