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Governor's Breakdown of UFC 89: Bisping vs. Leben
I originally posted this over at StatFox but unlike here, that place is a dead zone for MMA betting discussion. I figured it'd be worth a shot posting over here in hopes of getting a couple comments so with that said, away we go...
UFC goes to England this Saturday with UFC 89: Bisping vs. Leben. On paper, the card looks like it should be a UFC Fight Night card as it provides no blockbuster fights and an extremely subpar Main Event. But as it’s providing some solid odds and on free TV, it’s not completely worthless. I have a little more time now so (if anyone cares) I can give a pretty thorough analysis of my bets. Also, if you plan on betting, don’t forget that because the event is in England it has a start time of 3 pm EST.
*2.7 Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou -115 vs. Luis Cane
A lot of hardcore MMA fans feel Luis Cane is the real deal and will beat the overrated Sokoudjou. Personally, I think that Cane is the one that’s overrated and that Sokoudjou being given a fifty/fifty chance to win this fight is absurd. It wasn’t too long ago that he was in everybody’s top ten at 205 and was seen as the next big thing. As a heavy underdog, Sokoudjou bursted onto the main MMA scene with devastating knockout wins over then top ten fighters Ricardo Arona and Antonio Rogerio Nogueria. This was about the same time that Houston Alexander began making a name for himself with his own massive KO victories and Sokoudjou was unfairly compared to him. Unlike Houston, he isn’t a fluke as he can do more than just strike. He has a legitimate ground game as he is a Judo black belt and trains with the ground-game focused Team Quest. They are one of the elite MMA gyms whose members include Dan Henderson, Matt Lindland, and formerly Randy Couture.
Sokoudjou is 5-2 overall and 1-1 in the UFC. In his first match in the Octagon, he lost to Lyoto Machida in a lopsided decision. He bounced backed from this loss with a TKO (leg injury) victory over Kazuhiro Nakamura in May. In both outings, he looked lackluster at best and showed none of the brilliance that he did in Japan. This however, is definitely playing in our favor and the first part in helping keep the opening line so low.
His opponent, Luis Arthur Cane is 8-1 overall and is also 1-1 in the UFC. In his first fight, he was ahead (but in no way dominating as some experts say) James Irvin until he was DQ for an illegal knee. His last fight in June, he scored a dominating TKO victory over an overrated Jason Lambert (1-4 in his last five fights). This is the second part in what is helping keep the lines low as I think too much stock is being put into the victory.
Both fighters are known as strikers and I’d have to say that neither has a clear advantage. Cane, with a Muay Thai background, is the more diverse striker and has the longer reach. Sokoudjou possesses faster hands and more one strike power. The grappling advantage definitely goes to Sokoudjou (especially in the clinch) as he has a black belt in Judo. This will definitely come into play in the fight.
While Cane is the more diverse striker, his stance is something left to be desired. It is very wide and is begging for leg kicks. I see that the opening minutes of the fight starting with a feeling out process that will include many vicious leg kicks from Sokoudjou. Cane will in turn charge forward with strikes and either two scenarios will play out. He will either a) get into a clinch where he will be in the unusual position of not having the advantage or b) both traders will exchange strikes, separate, and continue the process. The first scenario is the more likely one and will lead to a Sokoudjou takedown and subsequent ground and pound. Cane is no wiz on the ground and don’t foresee him pulling out a slick submission. The way I see it, the whole fight will continue in this fashion with Sokoudjou eventually win via TKO in the 2nd round due to ground strikes.
*5 Brandon Vera -180 vs. Keith Jardine
Brandon Vera is a superb striker (kickboxing and Muay Thai background) and grappler (Wrestled in the Air Force and at ODU, Brown Belt in BJJ) that is making his second foray in the light heavyweight decision. In this fight, he will have the advantage in both categories. He is 9-2 overall and 5-2 in the UFC. In his last two bouts, he first loss against Fabricio Werdum (in the heavyweight division) in a very controversial fashion as the bout was stopped prematurely. His last bout, though a dominating decision win against IFL Veteran Reese Andy, was seen as a letdown as many thought that he should’ve taken him out in the first round.
Keith Jardine is also a striker but has very unorthodox striking. He is 13-4-1 overall and 6-2 in the UFC. In his last two bouts, he first outpointed Chuck Liddell with a superior game plan but then was decimated by Wanderlei Silva in 36 seconds. The only clear advantage that Jardine has is that he comes from a superior camp that is known for producing excellent game plans.
The problem with this is that there is no game plan that I can see Jardine implementing that would make him victorious. He doesn’t have the ground skills to take Vera down and try to submit him or ground and pound him (i.e. Fabricio Werdum) nor does he have the body size and strength to muscle Vera around (a la Tim Sylvia). Jardine’s game plan is going to be the same one he implements time and time again: come out and strike and hope to end up on the better end of things. Going against an outstanding striker liker Vera though, he won’t.
Bottom line, I don’t see any way in hell that Jardine wins this fight. He’s going to get pounded on his feet and doesn’t have the size or strength advantage to overpower Vera and neutralize this disparity in striking. If he tries to take this game to the ground, he will be stuffed or submitted by the much better grappler Vera. His unorthodox striking may cause some problems in the beginning, but I see the “Dean of Mean” eventually succumbing to a KO or TKO.
*3.8 Michael Bisping -240 vs. Chris Leben
I’m not going to spend too much time on faux Main Event as it’s such a mismatch. Simply put, Michael Bisping is on a different level than Chris Leben. Bisping is quickly rising to be a top ten middleweight and has a chance to be an elite fighter whereas Leben is destined forever to be a journeyman/gate keeper. Bisping is a MUCH better striker as he is more diverse, crisper, and faster. While he has shown average takedown defense in the past, he has shown a great ability to stand back up (got up from repeated takedowns from phenomenal wrestler Rashad Evans). He is also very athletic and has a speed advantage over almost all of his opponents.
Chris Leben has major one punch KO power and a granite chin. These however, are the only two aspects of MMA that he excels at. He is a very sloppy striker and has gassed in past matches if he doesn’t pace himself. He is also not very athletic or fast and has only shown mediocre wrestling and grappling.
Leben’s only chance of winning this fight is if he KOs Bisping with one of his haymakers. He has done this on numerous occasions when his opponents think he is hurt, go in for the kill, and end up getting knocked out. On all of these occasions, Leben was losing the fight. I feel that Bisping knows this and will avoid this time of situation. Look for him to fight an intelligent fight by staying on the outside and taking advantage of his superior striking and speed on the feet. As a KO of Leben will be very unlikely, I will not be surprised to see Bisping take Leben down and dominate him on the ground as well. I think Bisping will win via a dominate decision or by a RNC that is set up by ground and pound.
(Parlay Bet) Chris Lytle -350 vs. Paul Taylor
The line for this fight is unbettable in my eyes and is only needed for parlay purposes. It is set a little low but nothing worth making a single play on. Lytle is an MMA veteran who is very well rounded. He has professional boxing record of 13-1, is a BJJ black belt, has solid conditioning, and is strong welterweight. Unfortunately, Lytle is stuck on the cusp of being an elite 170 lb fighter. He smashes fighters who aren’t in the top ten but always ends up on the losing end to guys who are.
Paul Taylor is an up and coming fighter with serious potential that has been put in a losing situation. He is severely overmatched against Lytle and I feel the UFC has put him on this card because he is from England (help sell tickets) and has a tendency to put on exciting fights (he is a world champion kick boxer). With his striking background, Taylor has about the 27% chance he is given to win to clip Lytle and TKO or KO him. Realistically, though, I don’t see this happening and see Lytle continue his trend of destroying non-top 10 opponents.
My Bets:
*2.7 Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou -115 vs. Luis Cane
*5 Brandon Vera -180 vs. Keith Jardine
*3.8 Michael Bisping -240 vs. Chris Leben
*5 Parlay
-----Brandon Vera -180 vs. Keith Jardine
-----Michael Bisping -240 vs. Chris Leben
*2 Parlay
-----Brandon Vera -180 vs. Keith Jardine
-----Michael Bisping -240 vs. Chris Leben
-----Chris Lytle -350 vs. Paul Taylor
*1 Parlay
-----Brandon Vera -180 vs. Keith Jardine
-----Michael Bisping -240 vs. Chris Leben
-----Chris Lytle -350 vs. Paul Taylor
-----Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou -115 vs. Luis Cane
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Originally Posted by Bread
