these are 5dimes lines.
Sergei Kharitonov is +950 to take the GP.
Kharitonov is either facing barnett or rogers in the semis, and then overeem/werdum/silva in the finals.
Assuming Barnett wins (which is pretty likely), I don't see Barnett being more than -200 against Kharitonov (in fact my prediction is that it'd be about -160 barnett if not closer).
Lets assume Overeem kills Werdum and kills Silva, and lets assume Barnett was -200 against Kharitonov. Overeem would have to be more than -425 for us to fully hedge our bet. Is this even likely considering the style matchup?
Here's the scenario:
You put 100 on kharitonov to win 950
If Barnett is -200, you put 250 on barnett to win 125 (25 profit)
If Kharitonov beats Barnett, you hedge another 550 or so on overeem at -425 to win 130 (30 profit)
If Kharitonov beats Barnett and Overeem, you'd still end up with profit.
So does anyone think my hypothetical lines are off on barnett/kharitonov and overeem/kharitonov which would make this a bad bet?