[PunisherIND]

Location: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Venue: Wells Fargo Center


Broadcast: Pay-per-view

• Phil Davis vs. Rashad Evans
• Champ Jose Aldo vs. Chad Mendes (for featherweight title)*
• Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Vitor Belfort
• Rich Franklin vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
• Johny Hendricks vs. Mike Pierce
• Jorge Rivera vs. Alessio Sakara
• Michael McDonald and Nick Pace
• Brian Ebersole vs. Dennis Hallman
• Riki Fukuda vs. Rafael "Sapo" Natal*

* - Not officially announced

[Chairib]

What's the over/under on the amount of saps in the audience wearing their favorite Harold Carmichael jersey?

[clarkd32]

just based on "class" alone shouldn't wouldn't evans be a good bet at -105?

[phillybadboy]

mike pierce, rashad evans-105, rich franklin +144

[omalley21]

I like Davis and Nog here. I don't see how Rich beats Nog.

[bjpenn85]

Why do you like davis?

[Vaughany]

I like fight to go distance hedged with Rashad KO of the Night or Rashad by TKO/KO. Don't envisage any other outcome and think it most likely goes the distance.

Will Phil Davis size advantage be the key to gettin Rashad down and controlling him on the ground en route to a decison? Rashad has talked about goin down to 185 in past, wrestled at 174lbs at college, and his manager said it would be a comfortable cut for him.

[Ladle]

Rogerio at -145 is a good bet. Franklin was rocked and dropped by weak punches from Evan Tanner and David Loiseau, so if Rogerio connects with something significant, it wouldn't be surprising to see Rich go to sleep. I expect the fight to largely take place on the feet considering that Rogerio's takedown defense is now fairly robust after having trained to fight two wrestlers in succession.

[Vaughany]

Rogerio at -145 is a good bet. Franklin was rocked and dropped by weak punches from Evan Tanner and David Loiseau, so if Rogerio connects with something significant, it wouldn't be surprising to see Rich go to sleep. I expect the fight to largely take place on the feet considering that Rogerio's takedown defense is now fairly robust after having trained to fight two wrestlers in succession.

Yeah sadly I think Franklin is on a downward spiral, Rogerio should have better boxing although Franklin will have better movement and leg kicks.

[PunisherIND]

i have 1.25 units on mendes at +235, and 1.9 units on franklin at +130.

i'm leaning towards aldo, but i think theres value on mendes at +200 or better. as for franklin-nog, i think the line should be even, or franklin a slight favorite. i can't give you a great analysis - just call it a gut feeling. franklin has alternated wins and losses for his last 6 fights, and i have a feeling it's going to continue here. matt hammil (win), dan henderson (loss), wandy (win), belfort (loss), liddell (win), forrest (loss), lil nog (win???).

im interested in hearing thoughts on hendricks-pierce, rivera-sakara, and mcdonald-pace. very trough fights to call imo.

[Vaughany]

i have 1.25 units on mendes at +235, and 1.9 units on franklin at +130.

i'm leaning towards aldo, but i think theres value on mendes at +200 or better. as for franklin-nog, i think the line should be even, or franklin a slight favorite. i can't give you a great analysis - just call it a gut feeling. franklin has alternated wins and losses for his last 6 fights, and i have a feeling it's going to continue here. matt hammil (win), dan henderson (loss), wandy (win), belfort (loss), liddell (win), forrest (loss), lil nog (win???).

im interested in hearing thoughts on hendricks-pierce, rivera-sakara, and mcdonald-pace. very trough fights to call imo.

I believe Mcdonald is facing Cariaso at 130, then Pace at 133...Pace will defo be a tougher test as his grappling is of a higher level than Cariaso. If Mayday beats Cariaso comfortably as I expect he will he'll probly come out as a big favourite against Pace.

All the other fights u mention are hard to call, Sakara/Rivera I'd take whoever is the underdog at + odds, I'd lean Rivera because of Sakara's questionable chin tho. I like Pierce to beat Hendricks, hoping to get him as dog. Think he has more power and good enough wrestling to keep it standing and implement a similar strategy to Rick Story.

[Ladle]

im interested in hearing thoughts on hendricks-pierce, rivera-sakara, and mcdonald-pace. very trough fights to call imo.

Hendricks/Pierce is very difficult to call. That said, I think Hendricks' boxing is better and that might be what gives him the edge in this fight. Pierce is heavy-handed but he's very hittable as he drops his hands a lot whilst throwing punches.

As for Rivera/Sakara, I think they're fairly evenly matched on the feet. Rivera is heavy-handed but also very prosaic and predictable in his punching; Sakara is the more varied and technical striker, but his chin stinks. It could go either way if it stays standing.

In my opinion, Sakara's best route to victory would be trying to bring Rivera to the floor.
Sakara is leagues ahead on the ground, and Rivera's takedown defense looked appalling against Bisping.

[Vaughany]

In my opinion, Sakara's best route to victory would be trying to bring Rivera to the floor.
Sakara is leagues ahead on the ground, and Rivera's takedown defense looked appalling against Bisping.

Agreed, Sakara's ground game is underrated...not sure if he'll be smart enough to do this tho. He's been KO'd by 3 out of 3 heavy nontechnical bangers that he's faced before in McFedries, Leben and Houston Alexander so doesn't exactly bode well for him if he keeps it standing!

[Ladle]

Agreed, Sakara's ground game is underrated...not sure if he'll be smart enough to do this tho. He's been KO'd by 3 out of 3 heavy nontechnical bangers that he's faced before in McFedries, Leben and Houston Alexander so doesn't exactly bode well for him if he keeps it standing!

Yeah. Would be foolish of him not to exploit the glaring hole in his opponent's game when he has the tools to do so, but clearly he's no Georges St-Pierre in the strategy department.

I think the best bet here is for the fight not to go the distance if the odds aren't too bad. Sakara can probably tap Rivera on the ground if he chooses to take the fight there, and one of them is likely going to sleep if it stays standing. Neither are the sturdiest-chinned of fighters.

[Vaughany]

Yeah. Would be foolish of him not to exploit the glaring hole in his opponent's game when he has the tools to do so, but clearly he's no Georges St-Pierre in the strategy department.

I think the best bet here is for the fight not to go the distance if the odds aren't too bad. Sakara can probably tap Rivera on the ground if he chooses to take the fight there, and one of them is likely going to sleep if it stays standing. Neither are the sturdiest-chinned of fighters.

Yep good call.

[PunisherIND]

thanks for sharing your thoughts. V- i forgot McDonald has a fight scheduled at UFC 130. this kid likes to stay busy, huh? a little strange that they scheduled him for UFC 133 before his previously scheduled fight takes place.

[Vaughany]

thanks for sharing your thoughts. V- i forgot McDonald has a fight scheduled at UFC 130. this kid likes to stay busy, huh? a little strange that they scheduled him for UFC 133 before his previously scheduled fight takes place.

It's because he stepped in for Yamamoto after he pulled out.