[RaiderNation MMA]

now im super new to betting, super rookie here

but even myself is smart enuff to know there isnt much to be made with GSP
being a -4000000 favorite.

the lines for going and not going the distance however are much more reasonable. not sure what books yall use but SBR has them going the distance at like +162 and not going the distance at somethin like -110.

but never mind the numbers i want to know what yall think will happen with this

i think we can all agree GSP will win but how im not sure

on one hand i think GSP is going to sprawl and brawl jake like he did KOS. and use that crisp boxing to beat him up. so a knockout is more possible.

but then again both guys havent really been finishing anyone lately, so im expecting some sort of boring decision.

but i dunno, can jake survive 5 rounds standing? will gsp try and take him down? possibly risking the possibillity of jake getting a sub?

i dunno.

what do u guys think

[FlashinLeather]

Wait you put GSP and KO in the same sentence?

[Vaughany]

Fight to go the distance hedged with GSP KO of the Night or the other way round is the play!

[Ladle]

Shields' sketchy gas tank in conjunction with St-Pierre's markedly superior striking and wrestling? Sounds like a good recipe for a finish to me.

[Vaughany]

Shields' sketchy gas tank in conjunction with St-Pierre's markedly superior striking and wrestling? Sounds like a good recipe for a finish to me.

Yeah I'm NOT (EDIT!) convinced Shields could take the beating tht Fitch took

[freelee]

I think GSP finishes him in the championship rounds by TKO

[omalley21]

GSP will not finish him. GSP will not try to take him down. GSP will jab and run.

[Ladle]

GSP will not finish him. GSP will not try to take him down. GSP will jab and run.

If Shields shows up in the same condition as when he fought Kampmann, I think it's very likely that he wilts in the championship rounds and get finished.

There's also the possibility of a doctor's stoppage. 25 minutes of continuous jabbing will turn Shields' face into a wreck.

[JoshB]

He didn't even try to finish Koshckeck which leads me to believe this will go the distance also.

[Ladle]

He didn't even try to finish Koshckeck which leads me to believe this will go the distance also.

I don't think the Koscheck fight should form the foundation for making a prediction on the Shields fight. Koscheck doesn't have dubious cardio and horrific striking defense.

[Vaughany]

I don't think the Koscheck fight should form the foundation for making a prediction on the Shields fight. Koscheck doesn't have dubious cardio and horrific striking defense.

ha yeah if anything the Kos fight should be an indicator of best case scenario for Shields!

[jin2daj]

Fight to go the distance hedged with GSP KO of the Night or the other way round is the play!

i like this play alot. gsp ko of the night is a reasonable possibility. and will pay out very nicely too.

[RaiderNation MMA]

GSP ko of the night and gsp by dec is great idea! unless its a doctor stoppage, that wud blow

[Kaladarus]

I believe this could go either way. When the odds are fairly close like that and there's not enough information to make a decision it's best not to take either line. There's a lot more money to be made on other fights you're more confident about.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Shileds has been stopped once 11 years ago, and GSP isn't finishing of laye so i say it goes 5 rounds

[JuicedUp]

this one is going all five fellas.

[Vaughany]

I believe this could go either way. When the odds are fairly close like that and there's not enough information to make a decision it's best not to take either line. There's a lot more money to be made on other fights you're more confident about.

Yeah but they didnt open up tht close, I maxed out on fight going distance at +220 and +180 or something like tht when they came out.

[RaiderNation MMA]

yeah im leaning distance now, but another arugment is that its been so long it bound to happen!

[sirchadwick1]

I like the fight to go the distance also, but it's too close to call so I'm staying away... however, if I had caught it at +200, I wouldn't hesitate. GSP hasn't finished lately, but it's possible that Jake tires out in the championship rounds and gets put away. I know it's exciting to lay down on main event props like this... but it's an easy way to get burned.

[Alt75]

Shields went 5 with Hendo and as GSP isn't really finishing a lot I would lean towards it going the distance. That said Shields struggled against Kampmann over 3 rounds back at 170, could have been a hard cut and nerves of UFC debut too. I don't see GSP brutally tko'ing Shields, I think GSP will keep it standing firing jabs and straights from the outside, the fight could be stopped by doctor in later rounds from accumulated damage cuts and swelling as it probably should have been with Kos.

As sirchadwick1 said probably best to stay way from the exotic/prop on this one.

[FlashinLeather]

I really don't think will try and take him down and grind him out, I see him getting takedowns to win rounds but he won't spend the whole fight on the mat. The reason being is that the only chance that Shields has to win is on the mat, and he won't be able to do anything on his feet against gsp.

[Varker]

probably going to decision, but shields has the striking to get himself knocked out.

[KCJMAC]

Shields has gone 5 rounds in 2 of his last 3 fights (Henderson & Miller). His conditioning looked bad against Kampman, but that was due to a back injury limiting training and a resulting tough weight cut.

[GunShard]

I say going the distance on all 5 rounds is the best bet.
I wouldn't be surprised if Shields won by split decision.

[jliggett12]

Fight to go the distance hedged with GSP KO of the Night or the other way round is the play!

way to cover just about every decision possible. i believe it stays on the feet it goes gsp's way. he will not knock him out because he doesnt have the power. i think gsp wins by decision and goes to rio to fight silva and then gets ko'd in the first round easily. silva will ruin and tarnish gsp for jumping to 185

[Ladle]

way to cover just about every decision possible. i believe it stays on the feet it goes gsp's way. he will not knock him out because he doesnt have the power. i think gsp wins by decision and goes to rio to fight silva and then gets ko'd in the first round easily. silva will ruin and tarnish gsp for jumping to 185

My concern with the KO of the night hedge is that GSP probably isn't going to knock him out cold. Although Shields is flawed, his chin and recovery ability are both decent, so I think it'll take a series of shots to put him away.

If there's a more clear-cut knockout on the main card or Spike prelims, I think that will earn the bonus. There's a good chance that Machida will one-shot Randy, and I have a feeling that Pierson/Foster will end in a brutal finish. Also, a spectacular knockout is always a possibility when Jose Aldo is fighting; Zuffa will be particularly keen to award Aldo the bonus if they can, as they're obviously trying to legitimize him as the figurehead of the division.

[GoldRush7]

I think it will go the full 5, no way gsp finishes shields

[phillybadboy]

shields wins inside the distance

[Alt75]

Instead of KO of the night why not just take inside the distance/ko instead? Seems a bit of a risky hedge considering GSP isn't a renowned finisher and Shields isn't known for a glass chin, if it is stopped it will likely be from a doctors stoppage or a tko from not intelligently defending via gnp if GSP follows him to the mat on a knockdown (will probably be the only time in Jacksons gameplan GSP goes to ground) plus the other fights with potential for highlight reel ko's on the card.