[ClimbSomeRocks]

Just wanted to give you guys a heads up. Bitcoin transactions will be slower than usual, and I expect fees to rise in the next couple of days. Here's why:

There has been a big drop in hash power - likely due to China 'banning mining'. This means that there are less miners trying to guess the solution to the mining algorithm.

The mining algorithm uses probabilistic determination to aim for 10 minute blocks. It self corrects this algorithm every ~ 2 weeks (actually 2016 blocks). The current difficulty is HIGHER than the current amount of miners, so there is a much lower probability they will find a block within 10 minutes.

This issue will auto correct on approximately June 30th. It corrects because of the difficulty adjustment. It is currently expected that the difficulty of the mining algorithm will be reduced by 20%.

All this info can be found (but not explained) if you google "Clark Moody Bitcoin Dashboard"



So why will fee's likely go up?


First off, this is just my guess. It's a 2nd order effect. Blocks coming in slower means less blocks per day (obviously). Less blocks per day mean there will be more transactions per block competing for precious block space. More transactions competing for block space means an increase in fee competition. This will likely lead to higher fee's (probably just in the short term, unless bitcoin starts going parabolic again)

A tool I use to estimate the proper fee to pay per transaction is: bitcoiner(.)live just remove the ( ) or do a google search.

You should be using a wallet that allows you to manually adjust the fee. My personal favorite is Samouri Wallet.



TLDR: Just read the title. You can protect yourself by making your transaction now (early) or waiting until after the difficulty adjustment retargets on approx: June 30th.

[icon]

I've noticed btc confirmations are slow as hell lately. First confirmation took 15 minutes but it took 3 hours for the 3rd confirmation on my latest transaction.