[Illusion]

Post your comments and leans in this thread. If you have a play post it in the regular best bets thread. Remember, this is for comments and leans only. No results will be tracked from this thread.

[moses millsap]

Dead arm Loaiza is -116 chalk against Verlander and the Tigers. Maybe a team total play on the Tigers.

[bigboydan]

baltimore fellas...

[Razz]

baltimore fellas...

That's the one.

[bigboydan]

you like them too uh razz. i think the series price has very good value even at the pick'um.

[Willie Bee]

Florida (J.Vargas) at Cincinnati (E.Milton) – 7:10 p.m. ET
WEATHER: Should be a nice, clear day in Cincinnati with afternoon high of 70° cooling to overnight low about 45°. Winds are out of East at 5-10 shifting towards NE after sunset (in from left-left corner).

UMPIRES: Chuck Meriwether entered this season a lover of offense but is so far 3-0 on the under this season. It should be added that some pretty good arms have appeared in those three games (Hudson, Halladay, Mulder and Myers). Meriwether called balls at a 40% rate in 2005 and hitters slapped long balls every 31¼ plate appearances.

Jason Vargas makes his third start of the year with a 1-1, 5.73 numbers so far in 11 innings. His biggest trouble so far in ‘06 has been control and the inability to coax grounders. He was pummeled in his first start, a 9-3 loss at Shea to the Mets, but came back to allow just two hits in six innings in his most recent start, a 9-2 win over the Padres in Florida. This is just his second outing against the Reds in his brief career, and he won the previous meeting with 6+ strong innings in Miami. To date, he’s given up just four hits to the Reds in 20 AB, and one of them was by Eric Milton, his mound opposition in this one.

Speaking of Milton, he’s off to a strong start this season with a 2-0 record and 2.63 ERA in his first 13.2 IP. He beat the Pirates at home, when the bullpen almost blew it, and topped the Cubs in Wrigley to get to this point which is strange because Milton has shown a penchant for being a much better 2nd-half pitcher in the past few years. The Cincy lefty is 1-2 lifetime in five career games opposite the Fish, posting a 4.03 ERA while allowing 6 HR in 29 IP. Not many of the present Marlins have ever faced him, with Miguel Cabrera (.231, 2 HR, 13 AB) and Wes Helms (1-for-9) having seen him the most.

MY PLAY: The Redlegs are quietly cooking along and doing so with better than expected starting pitching. Should consider taking them on a run line.


Kansas City (J.Affeldt) at Chicago (J.Garland) – 8:05 p.m. ET
WEATHER: Looking for 1st-pitch temp of about 60°, clear with East winds 10-15 MPH (in from left).

UMPIRES: Ed Monatgue should be a welcome site for White Sox fans since home teams are 3-0 when he’s behind the plate this year. His over-under record is 1-2, but that’s a bit misleading since one under was 7½ and the other was a big 10. He’s been a pitcher’s umpire so far this season calling more than 64% strikes, but my recollection of him is he’s tight on the outside corner if it’s anywhere close to zipper-high or above.

Jeremy Affeldt hasn’t made it past the fourth inning in his two previous starts, one of them during the season’s first week against the White Sox that his Royals pulled out, 11-7. Most of his action up to this season against Chicago came as a reliever, with this being his fourth career start against them to go with 10 bullpen outings. At New Comiskey, he’s 0-1 with a 12.27 ERA in one start and three relief appearances. Paul Konerko, Joe Crede and Juan Uribe beat him like a drum, combining for a .500 average against Affeldt entering this season. That trio was 5-for-6 against him back on Apr 7.

Jon Garland hasn’t fared much better than Affeldt so far this year, allowing 16 earned runs in less than 11 IP to KC and Detroit up to now. The fact that neither pitcher could out-duel the other one in that April 7th game is noteworthy. Garland is now 6-3 in his last 14 starts against the Royals with an ERA over five. Mike Sweeney (.341, 5 HR, 6 BB, 41 AB) is his main nemesis in the KC lineup. Mark Grudzielanek and Reggie Sanders have also given him trouble.

MY PLAY: White Sox heating up, at home and against arguably the biggest dog in the majors. Got to swallow the bullet on the -240 price and take the Pale Hose.


Milwaukee (D.Davis) at Houston (R.Oswalt) – 8:05 p.m. ET
WEATHER: Muggy day, as usual, in Houston, expecting game time temp in mid-80s, clear and winds from SSE 10-15 MPH (out towards right-center).

UMPIRES: Jeff Nelson is slated for the balls & strikes in this one, his fourth plate duty of the year. So far there have been 17 walks and 34 strikeouts in the nearly 54 half-innings he’s worked, and average of nearly 6 BB and a little more than 11 K per contest. A bit of a pitcher’s umpire.

Doug Davis has made three starts this year and is still looking for his first decision despite the fact the Brewers have eventually hung a mark in the dubya column in each of those outings. The southpaw has never won at Arthur Andersen Memorial in Houston, dropping all six of his starts there despite a decent 4.28 ERA and allowing just two homers in 37 IP. Craig Biggio (.289, HR, 38 AB) and Lance Berkman (.370, 2 HR, 27 AB) have done well against him, no big surprise with either of those two hitters. Adam Everett (.333, 24 AB), Jason Lane (.333, 12 AB) and Mike Lamb (2-for-5) have also had success against him.

Roy Oswalt is coming off a 122-pitch outing last Thursday in San Francisco when he pitched shutout ball into the ninth. This is his fourth start of the season, picking up two wins so far and allowing just one homer in almost 23 IP. One might normally worry about a pitcher exceeding 110 pitches in an outing, but that wasn’t a cause for concern last year with Oswalt. Roy O went 5-3 with two no-decisions in starts after 111+ pitches in 2005, his ERA at a very nice 2.97 in those 10 starts. In 11 starts versus the Brewers since 2003, Oswalt is 6-3 with a 3.30 ERA, and he’s now 29-9 in 46 starts in Houston since 2003. Geoff Jenkins (.324, 34 AB) and Bill Hall (.291, 23 AB) have given him fits, but Oswalt has done a number of Brady Clark, Jeff Cirillo and Carlos Lee who are hitting .167 with nary a long ball between them. Davis, his mound opposition, is 0-for-6 with 3 K lifetime digging in against Oswalt.

MY PLAY: Here I go again with my Astros, a team I really have troubles with. I never bet against Roy O, and won’t this time either. Houston relievers Dan Wheeler and Brad Lidge have worked two days in a row with Chad Qualls working 3-straight. With Oswalt on the hill, manager Phil Garner should be able to rest one or more of them tonight. Houston’s offense has been on a tear last three games, and I like the over 7½ in this one.


San Francisco (M.Morris) at Arizona (Ru.Ortiz) – 9:40 p.m. ET
WEATHER: Nice evening in the desert with a 1st-pitch temp about 84°, very dry and clear, WNW winds 5-10 MPH (in from left).

UMPIRES: Alfonso Marquez is behind the plate for this one, and he has a tighter zone than the average umpire though hitters aren’t able to take that much advantage in terms of the long ball. He worked a game last week that went well over the 11½-run total and saw 10 walks. But the game was in Colorado.

Matt Morris has gotten off to a great start this season with his new club in San Fran, winning both of his starts while allowing just four earned runs and a homer in 14 innings to date. He’s 2-0 in his last two starts against the Snakes, both of them in Arizona. Shawn Green (.429, HR, 14 AB) and Damian Easley (.333, 2 HR, 12 AB) have hit him the best among this lineup while Luis Gonzalez (.158, HR, 19 AB) and Craig Counsel (.214, 14 AB) have had their troubles facing Morris.

Russ Ortiz, who somehow commands a higher salary than Morris by more than two mil, has had trouble getting out of the gate for Arizona this season, dropping his two starts to date with an ERA over six. He’s also had his share of trouble against the Giants, going 0-3 with a 7.99 ERA in his last six starts versus San Fran, including 19 free passes in just over 33 frames. At the former BOB in Phoenix, he’s a puny 2-6 in 13 starts and an ERA approaching seven. Steve Finley (.417, HR, 36 AB) and Mike Matheny(.294, HR, 17 AB) have enjoyed taking swings against Ortiz, with Barry Bonds (3-for-6, 2 HR, 3 BB) also hitting him well in limited duty.

MY PLAY: The two clubs pounded the ball on Monday to the tune of 19 runs and 24 hits (4 HR). With the disparity in the pitchers’ stats, you might be tempted to put more than one unit on the Giants. But since their closer Tim Worrell has worked four of the last five days and could be unavailable, I’d put just a single on them.

[Illusion]

I happen to like the Brewers tonight. Houston has been hitting well, but I expect their bats to cool off tonight.

[bigboydan]

the pirates are just crushing the cardnails tonight 6-0 so far

[moses millsap]

Indians are killing the Orioles 7-0

[bigboydan]

wrong day bud




btw, the brewers are up 2-0

[bigboydan]

wow... the pirates opened up a can of whoop ass on the cardnails tonight

9-2 pirates

[goldengoat]

randy johnson is pitching like a bitch......AGAIN


if they make the playoffs pitching is going to be their downfall.......AGAIN

[imgv94]

btw, the brewers are up 2-0

[moses millsap]

wrong day bud




btw, the brewers are up 2-0

Not anymore, Davis serves up two home runs.

[bigboydan]

i just seen that too bud. 2 solo shots WTF

[bigboydan]

randy johnson is pitching like a bitch......AGAIN


if they make the playoffs pitching is going to be their downfall.......AGAIN

check out these numbers on him tonight.

R. Johnson
3.0 IP, 9H, 7ER, 2K

[imgv94]

Not anymore, Davis serves up two home runs.

[bigboydan]

i'm not worried about the brew crew just yet guys. theres still alot more baseball to be played in this game tonight.

[bigboydan]

wow! the brewers battle back, and come up short.

[goldengoat]

randy johnson punked out like a little bitch!!!!

hahahaha

yankees staff is so sketchy