[Illusion]

Post your comments and leans in this thread. If you have a play post it in the regular best bets thread. Remember, this is for comments and leans only. No results will be tracked from this thread.

[imgv94]

Anyone like Seattle M's tomorrow @ +190

[bigboydan]

not me IMG.

[moses millsap]

If you love chalk, take a look at Mussina. He has completely dominated the Twins in his career, 20-4 with 6 CGs, 4 of which were shutouts, in 27 career starts. 3.14 era and 1.18 whip in 194.2 innings.

[imgv94]

Owned? Are you betting Yankees?

[moses millsap]

Owned? Are you betting Yankees?

Never

[Illusion]

Anyone like Seattle M's tomorrow @ +190

I am gonna play it for one unit.

[bigboydan]

Never

oh, why not owned. you know the yankees never lose

[Illusion]

oh, why not owned. you know the yankees never lose

Remember, the Royals have left town.

[bigboydan]

i know the nats are awful, but i just can't see them being a +150 dog against the marlins.

Nationals +151 OVER 7.5 -107
Marlins -159 UNDER 7.5 -103

[bigboydan]

heres a rather interesting series price at thegreek.com i see.

Series price
Houston Astros +120
Arizona Diamondbacks -140

what makes this series price so interesting is the fact that AZ is -140 here. the book is basicly telling you that AZ is probly a good bet with Webb tomorrow over Pettitte.

theres a few more trends i see that back Az, so you might wanna check it out.

[imgv94]

Are you gonna lay that kinda wood BBD? with ARIZ?

[onlooker]

Are you gonna lay that kinda wood BBD? with ARIZ?

Zona is a -115 favorite. So small favorite. I lay off favorites at -135/40

[bigboydan]

Are you gonna lay that kinda wood BBD? with ARIZ?

yes i am going to lay the -115 with AZ.

I don't approve of betting runlines, but this play should validate that type of wager. (AZ. -1.5 +183 )

[Willie Bee]

Los Angeles (E.Santana) at Baltimore (R.Lopez) – 7:05 ET
WEATHER: Chance for rain during the day, decreasing as darkness falls. Temps in the mid-to-upper 60s at game time, winds WSW at 5-10 MPH (slightly out to right).

Ervin Santana makes his second start of the season after a nice win over the Yankees in his first outing. Santana has not pitched well on the road (7.44 ERA, 9 starts) and this is only his second start against the O’s (0-1, 2.57 ERA, 7 IP, 7 K) and first at Camden Yards. In 23 at bats against him, the only two Baltimore batters to get a hit off Santana are Kevin Millar and Jeff Conine. Millar has two hits in five at bats, one of them a homer.

Rodrigo Lopez is making his third start of the young season, and is 1-1 with a 6.43 ERA. Both the Red Sox and Devil Rays roughed him up, but he did manage the win over Tampa. So far, Lopez has thrown 200 pitches exactly in 2006. He is 19-15 in his last 51 outings at Orioles Park and is a perfect 4-0 in his last four starts against the Halos. Angels regulars have yet to homer off R-Lo, with Garret Anderson (.158, 22 AB), Adam Kennedy (.056, 18 AB) and Darin Erstad (.273, 22 AB) having seen Lopez the most.

MY PLAY: I like the under 9½ at -120 and the O’s at +105.




Milwaukee (C.Capuano) at New York (T.Glavine) – 7:10 ET
WEATHER: Good shot at rain up until dark today in Queens. Temps in low-to-mid 60s at game time; winds shifting from south to west at 10-20 MPH (out to center then right).

Chris Capuano makes his third start of the year and first on the road. He won his first game against Pittsburgh (6 IP, 7 K, 0 BB) but lost his last start to the D-Backs (6.1 IP, 7 K, 4 BB, 4 runs). In just over 12 innings, Capuano has allowed but eight hits this season, two of them bleacher bombs. Since 2003, he is 0-1 in two starts against the Mets (5.84 ERA, 12.1 IP), and according to my records this is his first career start at Shea. Paul Lo Duca and Carlos Delgado are a combined 0-for-17 with six Ks when facing Capuano. Carlos Beltran (.400, 5 AB) and Cliff Floyd (.667, 3 AB) have had decent, though limited, success against the Milwaukee southpaw.

Crafty veteran Tom Glavine is also making his third start of the ’06 campaign, going 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA, 10 Ks and 5 BB in 12 innings opposite the Nationals and Marlins to date. The left-hander has yet to allow a homer this season. Glavine is 8-5 in his last 17 April starts, but has struggled in his last five starts against the Brewers (1-2, 6.86 ERA, 10 BB, 21 IP) and at Shea (15-20, 48 starts, 3.70 ERA). He will not like seeing Jeff Cirillo (.348, 23 AB), Geoff Jenkins (.318, 22 AB), Damian Miller (.333, 18 AB) or Brady Clark (.385, 13 AB) in the box. Glavine has had success against Corey Koskie and Carlos Lee who are a combined 2-for-12 lifetime.

MY PLAY: Should be a soggy field and yet we have two pitchers who might not be able to take advantage of that since they have not been able to induce more grounders to flies. The Mets, and Glavine, are on a roll; the Brewers maybe on a bit of a high with their win yesterday in St. Louis to avoid a sweep to the Cards. I’ll bite the bullet and take the chalk (-142) on the Mets.



San Diego (CH.Park) at Atlanta (T.Hudson) – 7:35 ET
WEATHER: Skies should be mostly clear by this evening, very warm in Atlanta during the day with 1st-pitch temps about 70°-75°. Winds are WSW at 5-10 MPH (out to right-center).

Chan Ho Park makes his first start of the season after appearing twice so far as a reliever, both times losses to Colorado last weekend in San Diego. This is his third start against Atlanta since 2003, and he is 2-0 in the previous two games despite a 5.23 ERA and lofty .341 BAA when facing the Braves. In his last starting assignment at Turner Field he won despite allowing five runs in less than six innings. Park has had decent success against the beef in Atlanta’s lineups (Chipper Jones, Andruw Jones, Edgar Renteria and Marcus Giles are a combined .194 in 72 AB). But Pete Orr and Jeff Francoeur are a perfect 5-for-5 in their careers when facing Park.

Tim Hudson has struggled in his first two starts this season, an 11-10 ATL loss on Opening Day in Los Angeles in which Hudson no-decisioned and a 12-6 loss at San Fran six days ago when the loss was hung on his ledger. Hudson has thrown 83 and 82 pitches respectively in those games and not pitched past the fourth frame. He is a much better pitcher in his own home park the last three seasons, going 22-9 in 48 outings, going 7-4 in 15 starts a year ago in Atlanta. This is his first call against San Diego, though he has seen many of their present hitters over his career. Mike Cameron (.245, 11 BB, 13 K, 49 AB) has seen Hudson the most. Vinny Castilla, Mike Piazza and Brian Giles are a combined 2-for-18 in their careers against the Georgian, with Piazza’s lone hit a long ball.

MY PLAY: The -163 line at VIP is too much for my liking considering how poorly Hudson has done so far. I’m putting a half-unit on the Padres at +148 and another half-unit on the under (9, +100).



Texas (K.Millwood) at Oakland (B.Zito) – 10:05 ET
WEATHER: Cloudy with about a 40% chance of rain all day and tomorrow in Oakland. Game time temps in upper-50s with WSW winds at 10-20 MPH (out to right).

Hit hard in his first two starts this year against Boston and Detroit, Millwood makes his third start with an 0-2 record and 7.36 ERA in 11 IP. He has done very well in his last two starts against Oakland, going 2-0 with a 1.20 ERA in 15 IP. Mark Kotsay (.316, HR, 38 AB) and Jason Kendall (.308, 26 AB) have done well against Millwood while Jay Payton (.077, 26 AB) and Marco Scutaro (0-for-8, 2 K) have not.

Barry Zito was lit up for seven runs in less than two innings in his season opener against the Yanks, but settled down with six innings of 1-hit, shutout ball on the road in Seattle six days ago in his last start. He’s also a bit of a Rangers Killer with an 8-2 record in his last 13 starts opposite Texas, amassing a 3.26 ERA in more than 86 IP. At McAfee/NetAss stadium in Oakland, he is 21-18 in 51 starts since 2003, including his season opener this year. Mark Teixeira (.333, HR, 30 AB) and Rod Barajas (/500, HR, 12 AB) have given the lefty the most trouble while Kevin Mench (.171, HR, 35 AB) and Hank Blalock (.207, 29 AB) have not fared well against Zito.

MY PLAY: With Mench taking cortisone shots in his foot and rookie Ian Kinsler out with a busted thumb, not to mention just the shoddy start Texas has gotten off to, it’s no surprise to see Oakland -150 at home in this one. I like the even-up bet on the over 8½ even though the park is kinder to pitchers.

[Illusion]

With Easter Sunday coming I have a feeling favorites will be cashing today and tomorrow. That's why I'm choosing my games very carefully and playing them light.

[moses millsap]

Mariners 2 LOB, Red Sox 11 LOB. They blew so many scoring chances today. Manny continues to suck beyond comprehension this year.

[imgv94]

yes i am going to lay the -115 with AZ.

I don't approve of betting runlines, but this play should validate that type of wager. (AZ. -1.5 +183 )

[bigboydan]

the D'backs are looking good so far tonight.

your welcome IMG

[onlooker]

I also cashed on that Dback -1.5 RL +186. That CJ homer helped us out a lot in the bottom of the 7th.

[bigboydan]

glad to see you guys cash in on that d'backs game like you did

btw, if it wasn't for looker asking me about the series prices yesterday. i would have never found that little AZ. gem

[imgv94]

Thanks onlooker!

[onlooker]

No problem.

I just felt like that series price was strange and with the way it was, it seemed Pinnacle was telling us the Diamondbacks would be winning game 1 today.

[bigboydan]

i thought that series price was way off at first too. i thought it might have been a 4 game set, but that wasn't the case.