The pitching matchups for this weekend's Yankees, Red Sox series at Fenway Park couldn't have worked out better if Hollywood scripted them. Friday finds two young studs for New York and Boston as Joba Chamberlain goes up against Josh Beckett, Saturday pits two grizzled veterans in Andy Pettitte and Tim Wakefield, and Sunday has a comeback sidebar with Sidney Ponson facing Jon Lester.
It doesn’t get as much talk as it does in other sports, but this is still baseball’s version of tank time. Whoever comes up with the worst record in the majors gets the first overall draft pick next year – none of this lottery nonsense. And the race for the bottom of the standings comes with a special prize this year: Stephen Strasburg, the right-hander from San Diego State.
This is no ordinary college pitcher. He fanned 133 batters in 13 starts for the Aztecs while walking only 16. Somebody is going to pay top dollar for his services, regardless of draft slot concerns. Right now, that someone looks like Seattle, San Diego or Washington, each with 38 wins at press time. All three are dumping players in advance of the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, making them even better fade candidates against the betting odds.
The Mariners are doing their best to lose by batting Jose Vidro (.608 OPS) cleanup; Washington’s idea of a power hitter is Ronnie Belliard (.788 OPS, nine HR). But the Padres have the sharpest front office of all three, so I expect them to take the Strasburg Sweepstakes. May the worst team win.
Meanwhile on the MLB diamonds this weekend...
Yankees at Red Sox
Game 1: Friday, 7:05 p.m. Eastern
NYY: Joba Chamberlain
BOS: Josh Beckett
Game 2: Saturday, 3:55 p.m. (FOX)
NYY: Andy Pettitte
BOS: Tim Wakefield
Game 3: Sunday, 8:05 p.m. (ESPN)
NYY: Sidney Ponson
BOS: Jon Lester
Neither of these teams is concerned about draft position. The Yankees have won all six of their games since the All-Star Game to improve to 56-45 (-4.95 units), three games back of the 60-43 Red Sox (+8.60 units) and the 59-42 Rays for first place in the American League East.
Unlike the rest of the division, New York does not have a losing record on the road, although 23-23 still puts supporters 3.33 units in the hole. The Red Sox are much better at Fenway, going 36-11 for a tasty 18.80 units of earnings. And Boston supporters are ready to pony up for more: David Ortiz (.839 OPS) makes his return Friday after missing the last two months to a wrist injury.
The Yankees, meanwhile, are missing two of their most important hitters. Hideki Matsui (.862 OPS) and Jorge Posada (.775 OPS) are on the shelf, meaning more at-bats for Brett Gardner (.417 OPS) and Jose Molina (.560 OPS). Expect the Yankees to address those needs before the trade deadline, if not soon enough to impact this series.
The Red Sox are -130 favorites for the opener with a total of 8½ runs.
Cardinals at Mets
Game 1: Friday, 7:10 p.m. ET
STL: Mitch Boggs
NYM: Mike Pelfrey
Game 2: Saturday, 7:10 p.m.
STL: Joel Pineiro
NYM: Brandon Knight
Game 3: Sunday, 1:10 p.m.
STL: Kyle Lohse
NYM: Johan Santana
St. Louis supporters took one on the chin Thursday night. Milwaukee scored two runs in the top of the ninth on a Ryan Braun home run, beating the Cardinals 4-3 to sweep their pivotal four-game series. The Cards are now 57-47 (+10.23 units), still within four games of the Cubs for the National League Central, but demoralized nonetheless.
Conversely, the Mets (55-47, -1.93 units) are feeling pretty good about themselves after taking two of three from the Phillies to open up a one-game lead in the NL East. Closer Billy Wagner (2.14 ERA, 3,18 xFIP) came back from shoulder spasms to record saves on Wednesday and Thursday; the Cardinals are trying to scrape by with Ryan Franklin (3.69 ERA, 5.22 xFIP) in that role. He gave up the Braun tater on Thursday night.
At least the Cards get something of a reprieve in Game 2. The Mets are starting Brandon Knight, who was last seen getting a cup of coffee with the Yankees in 2001 and 2002. The 32-year-old northpaw made 11 appearances this year for the AAA-New Orleans Zephyrs, including five starts, and earned his first MLB starting assignment by allowing just seven earned runs. Welcome back to the big leagues, kid.
Oddsmakers favor the Mets for Game 1 at -175 with a total of nine runs.
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Yankees, Red Sox top weekend MLB betting
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