I realy want to pick the Marlins in this one...:
Nolasco have been great in his L3 starts with a 3.00 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP, but Hudson havn't been bad either with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. It doesn't looks like the home advantage helps Nolasco as he got a 4.06 ERA, but his WHIP is at only 1.11...
Non of the bats are hot right now, Marlins hitting for a .236 avg with 4.13 R/9 and if the Braves pen brings on a leftie the Marlins are hitting only .190 with 2.02 R/9 (both in their L10).
The Braves are hitting for only .228 avg but got 4.26 R/9.
Hudson have been great against the Marlins posting a 6-2 record with an ERA of 2.84 and a WHIP of 1.237. His team record is 9-3.
Meanwhile, Nolasco havn't been so successful posting a 1-3 record with an ERA of 4.91 and a WHIP of 1.636. His team rcord is 1-5.
My reasons for likeing Marlins in this one:
# Nolascos L3 starts
# Braves road record
# Braves are 0-6 in Hudsons last 6 road starts
# Braves are 2-9 in their last 11 vs. National League East
# Marlins are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series
# Marlins are 4-1 in Nolascos last 5 home starts and 7-1 in his last 8 starts
# Marlins are 6-1 in their last 7 games as an underdog
# The Marlins pen have been good lately, posting a 2.50 ERA
# The Braves pen have been struggling lately, posting a 5.40 ERA
Why this might be a risky pick:
# Marlins are 0-4 in Nolascos last 4 starts vs. Braves
# Braves are 8-3 in Hudsons last 11 starts vs. Marlins
# Marlins are 2-8 in their last 10 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game
What's the play in this one??
Should I just stay away??
So far I like the Marlins and the under...