[ryanXL977]

is that too much to lay with sonnanstine? is he any worse than greinke?
tb wins 3 of every 4 at home so, theoretically, anything at -200 or better is value right?

[fifawcs]

I wouldn't lay it on Sonnanstine. He's really inconsistent. There is a chance that the Royals win with Greinke on the mound.

[Olocks]

There Hot but I'm staying away. I rather wait for Shields tomorrow.

[element1286]

I have the over for the FF. Sonnastine fills the zone with strikes, and has some mediocre stuff. Kansas City has been seeing the ball well the past week, and Tampa has so many lefties that they should hit the right-handed Greinke, who is ok against left handed batters.

[buffettgambler]

Right now, its hard for a fundamental handicapper to make a case that the Rays are not an overvalued team, and being priced as they have been can be expected to be an +EV bet on a forward looking basis. The Rays series against the Red Sox have solidified them as perceived contenders by the marketplace. Everyone wants to ride their streak, and in order to do so, you will have to pay for an intangible premium that should not be deemed long term sustainable. On a fundamental basis, there is nothing that warrants their current market price on today’s game. They have been able to mask this 10 to 25 cent daily premium by overachieving all season. Soon or later, this priced for perfection team, will play at a level of their true worth- a level that should produce losses if continually priced the way they have been.

I would recommend shying away from this team now. If you rode them during the first half, congrats. If you are thinking about jumping on their backs now, you may be in for a disappointment.

[element1286]

Right now, its hard for a fundamental handicapper to make a case that the Rays are not an overvalued team, and being priced as they have been can be expected to be an +EV bet on a forward looking basis. The Rays series against the Red Sox have solidified them as perceived contenders by the marketplace. Everyone wants to ride their streak, and in order to do so, you will have to pay for an intangible premium that should not be deemed long term sustainable. On a fundamental basis, there is nothing that warrants their current market price on today’s game. They have been able to mask this 10 to 25 cent daily premium by overachieving all season. Soon or later, this priced for perfection team, will play at a level of their true worth- a level that should produce losses if continually priced the way they have been.

I would recommend shying away from this team now. If you rode them during the first half, congrats. If you are thinking about jumping on their backs now, you may be in for a disappointment.

Good Post!

[rake922]

I have Tampa at -136 (matchbook)

[pavyracer]

Z. Greinke KC vs. A. Sonnanstine TB
7-4 Record 9-3
3.65 ERA 4.60
89 K 67
34 BB 19
1.27 WHIP 1.39

When the better pitcher is a +140 dog it has good value.

[ryanXL977]

the rays are playing the royals, at home
what should the line be?

[pavyracer]

the rays are playing the royals, at home
what should the line be?

Why are you discounting the Royals? They split the series 2-2 with both Yankees and Orioles on the road the last 30 days.

[ryanXL977]

the royals are not good
so they split with nyy and balti? is that impressive? those teams are not in tbs league as of now

[pimike]

cg

yes they were