Game Time: 06/19/2008 02:05 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com
Although you may not know it from their recent stats, A.J. Burnett is a far superior hurler than David Bush, and when you add in a better bullpen, the Jays get the call.
The Toronto Blue Jays have lost four straight games, but we look for them to stop that skid behind A.J. Burnett and salvage the last game of the series vs. David Bush and the Milwaukee Brewers.
Burnett has some of the best stuff in the league when he is on, but his numbers are skewed by his occasional awful outings like two starts back when he allowed eight runs and 10 hits in 4.1 innings vs. the Orioles. The fact of the matter though is that Burnett has allowed three runs or less in six of his last seven starts and he has 61 strikeouts in his last 42 innings pitched.
Besides, we are not very high on his counterpart Bush here tonight. He is 2-7 overall this season with a gaudy 5.73 ERA, and he has allowed at least four runs in six of his last nine starts. Even his official Quality Starts have been an adventure, as he was credited with a QS in last outing when only three of the four runs he allowed were earned in six innings of work (the minimum requirement for a Quality Start), yet he allowed 10 hits and a walk in those six innings.
Thus, this is actually a bigger pitching mismatch than the recent numbers of these starters would lead you to believe, and Toronto also has the far superior bullpen.
Game Time: 06/19/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com
The wheels have fallen off the Astros' wagon with hints of trouble in the clubhouse emerging. Back the Baltimore Orioles at home to finish the sweep against Houston.
The Orioles close out their three game series with Houston in Baltimore Thursday evening when they take on Shawn Chacon and the Astros.
Houston is in a tailspin with just three wins in their last 19 games, including their last seven straight. With the O's one of the few teams scoring runs on a regular basis these days, and Chacon in rocky KW form with nine walks and six strikeouts in his last three starts, look for Chacon to fall to 1-8 in his last nine team starts in June here tonight.
Game Time: 06/19/2008 02:15 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com
St. Louis is resembling a MASH unit right now with all of the walking wounded, but that won't stop the Cardinals from avoiding the sweep when they host the Kansas City Royals.
Our Thursday afternoon MLB selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals at home over the Kansas City Royals.
The incredibly injured St. Louis pitching staff (one of the most banged-up staffs in recent memory) suffered yet another blow when successful reliever-turned-starter Todd Wellemeyer left his last start with elbow soreness after getting lit up in the 20-2 shellacking at the hands of the Phillies on June 13. Although Wellemeyer has so far avoided the DL, the Cards will turn to right-hander Brad Thompson today for this aftenoon's start, previously belonging to Wellemeyer.
The Cards need this game to keep them competitive in the NL Central, not to mention to save them the embarassment of being swept in an interleague series by one of the American League's most pitiful teams. K.C. right-hander Zack Greinke has really fallen on some hard times after a decent start to the season. In his last three starts, Greinke has an ERA of 6.00 and the Royals are 0-3. In fact, KC has lost the last five of Greinke's starts. Take the Cards.
Game Time: 06/19/2008 02:05 PM -
By: Mike Rose | who2beton.com
With the White Sox looking forward to their big weekend series with the Cubs, Chicago might overlook Phil Dumatrait and the Pittsburgh Pirates on Thursday afternoon.
Phil Dumatrait has been a solid arm in the Bucco's starting rotation this season. He comes into this afternoon’s start 3-3 overall with a 3.84 ERA and 1.45 WHIP, and Pittsburgh has won six of his nine overall starts.
The Pirates also sport a winning mark in his road starts (3-2) where he owns a personal mark of 1-1 with a 4.54 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. He’s coming off a very disappointing start at Baltimore where he blew a 6-1 lead, but he says he’s corrected the mechanics that haunted him that night. This will be his first career start against the White Sox.
Looking to outduel the Pirates left-hander will be Chicago’s Gavin Floyd who didn’t figure into the White Sox 5-4 victory over the Colorado Rockies last Friday. The effort saw his streak of three straight wins get snapped, and he was lucky not to get saddled with the loss after serving up four home runs.
He currently stands 7-3 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.07 WHIP allowing 60 hits and 37 runs (31 earned) with a K/BB ratio of 49/31 in just under 85 total innings of work. At home, he’s 4-1 with a miniscule 2.82 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. He made one career start against the Pirates when he was a member of the Philadelphia Phillies back in 2006, but is yet to face them as a member of the White Sox.
Pittsburgh has failed miserably throughout the first two games of this series, but I still expect them to show up in the series finale. Chicago has to be overlooking this spot with a huge set in Wrigley about to take place this weekend. Pittsburgh has secured victories in Game 3 of a series four straight times, and they’re a perfect 5-0 in Dumatrait’s starts if they lost their previous game.
Roll with the dogged Pirates in this spot as they catch the Palehose overlooking them for bigger game this weekend.
Game Time: 06/19/2008 02:05 PM -
By: Stephen Nover | covers.com
Day games at Miller Park in Milwaukee are generally unkind to pitchers, and with A.J. Burnett and Dave Bush on the mound, the Blue Jays and Brewers should go over.
Toronto's A.J. Burnett is one of those Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde type pitchers. Lately he's been a lot more Hyde. Burnett has been tagged for 10 earned runs and 14 hits in his past two starts, spanning just 9.1 innings.
Just as ominious is Burnett has issued eight walks during this time frame, while throwing 211 pitches.
Milwaukee ranks among the top five clubs in home runs. The Brewers are averaging 5.8 runs during their last nine home games. A day game at Miller Park isn't usually a pleasant afternoon for hurlers.
Toronto, though, should be able to score frequently against Milwaukee starter David Bush, who has been so ineffective this season that he was sent to the minors for a spell. Bush is 2-7 with a 5.73 ERA.
Brewers closer Salomon Torres could be fatigued after picking up a tough save last night by going 1.1 innings. Guillermo Mota, the Brewers' top setup man, had a rough eighth inning last night. It's certainly not asking much for each team to score four runs.
Game Time: 06/19/2008 02:05 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | 10starpicks.com
Despite the injuries to their mound, Atlanta's pitching has come through for them. Back the Braves Thursday afternoon when they conclude their series in Texas against the Rangers.
Atlanta recorded a victory in Texas last night to get the road winning on the right track once again. We all know the Braves are the worst road team in baseball as their 11-26 record shows but they have been playing better. They have won four of their last six away from home after getting swept in Chicago.
Atlanta has a 3.93 ERA over its last 10 games so the pitching has been the key part of the turnaround. The solid pitching has been contagious as Atlanta is 13-6 in its last 19 games after allowing two runs or less.
Texas meanwhile has dropped four of six and while the Rangers are just a game under .500, their 18-17 record at home is nothing to be intimidated by. The pitching has been the problem as the team ERA is now at 5.06 on the season which is worst in the American League and worst in baseball. It is a combination of the starting pitching with a 4.92 ERA and the bullpen with a 5.26 ERA. The offense has had to carry the load but even that is struggling now with just four runs per game being scored over the last five games.
The good pitching for Atlanta has come from surprise places with both Tom Glavine and John Smoltz on the shelf. We can add Charlie Morton to that list. His major league debut was solid as he allowed three runs in six innings in a win against the Angels and posting a quality start. Don’t think it was a fluke as this kid is the real deal as he posted a 2.05 ERA while going 4-2 in 12 starts at Richmond. His 6-4 frame allows a lot of heat as well as a devastating curveball.
Scott Feldman is coming off his worst start of the season and that is saying a lot since there has been some bad ones. After starting the season with four straight quality outings, his ERA has risen from 3.45 to 4.84 thanks to allowing five runs or more in three of his last five outings. He has an ERA of 6.30 over this five games span with the Rangers going 0-5 in those games.
Texas is 1-8 in his nine starts on the season and the offense has mustered just 3.7 RPG in those outings. Play Atlanta for 1½ units.
Game Time: 06/19/2008 07:10 PM -
By: Steve Merril | 10starpicks.com
James Shields should have a fine outing today as he bounces back from back-to-back losses on the road. Take the Tampa Bay Rays Thursday when they host the Chicago Cubs.
The Cubs have been a much stronger team at home this season, 29-8 straight up compared to just 16-19 on the road. The biggest difference has come offensively and the Cubs have been particularly weak against right-handed pitchers, averaging just 4.2 runs and batting only .249 versus RHP away from home.
Chicago scored just four runs last night and should struggle again tonight against Tampa’s James Shields who has pitched extremely well this season with a powerful 69-17 strikeout/walk ratio and a solid 1.18 WHIP in his 14 starts. Shields has been especially strong at home with a 1.72 ERA and 0.86 WHIP with a 6-1 team record and an incredible 39-8 strikeout/walk ratio this season, and my pitcher performance ratings predict a strong bounce-back effort for Shields tonight after back-to-back road losses.
Game Time: 06/19/2008 07:05 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com
The Orioles beat the Astros for the fifth straight time in the head-to-head series last night, and while this starting pitching match-up is a wash, Baltimore has the better pen and better home-away batting splits.
The Baltimore Orioles have surprised many pre-season prognosticators by going 36-34 to this point, while the Houston Astros are reeling, going 4-17 in their last 21 games overall.
Now both starting pitchers are struggling lately, with Brian Burres having a 10.05 ERA in his last three starts and Shawn Chacon owning an 8.76 ERA and 1.95 WHIP over this same span. However, we feel that the Orioles have enough edges in other areas to merit this call at home.
Baltimore has done very well at Camden Yards this season, going 21-12 compared to a 16-23 road mark for Houston. The Orioles are also batting a very respectable .263 vs. right-handed pitching at home, while the Astros are struggling at just .233 vs. right-handers on the road. Finally, the O’s rank seventh in the Major Leagues with a 3.28 bullpen ERA, while the ‘Stros report home 23rd with a 4.23 pen ERA.
Baltimore has now won the last five head-to-head meetings with Houston in interleague play, so look for that to continue tonight.
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