Philadelphia's Cole Hamels is one of the top hurlers in the game, no doubt. But despite being at home tonight, should he be laying his much chalk to the Red Sox?
PHILLY WITH HAMELS MAY BE OVERVALUED
This seems like a bit of a big line for this matchup. The betting odds have settled in the -160s for Philly, and most of that is predicated on Phillies starter Cole Hamels’ ability to dominate.
And dominate, no doubt, he can, but he can also have his off days, and when he does, the huge odds that always accompany his starts can turn into huge losses that offset the money made from backing him on his good days. Hamels has been quite accurately priced this year; even though the Phillies are 9-5 in games he starts, his return on bets is close to even.
Boston has been a bit nicked up recently, but Manny Ramirez is not hurt too badly and will probably be back in the lineup for this one. Boston has hit well against lefties this year, and is in fact 10-2 against lefty starters on the season.
Now Hamels is no ordinary lefty starter, that is true. And it doesn’t take a lot of investigation to see that the Phillies have a very dangerous lineup. But this line is still looming large, and Boston might be the side with value here. And because of Hamels’ rep, it might creep even higher as we get closer to game time.
ANGELS HAVE TAKEN THE EARLY BETTING ACTION
The Angels are a bit of an “obvious” play in this one, and the line on the game has moved a notable amount since opening. The Mets are off a Sunday doubleheader and then cross-country travel, only to have to face Angels’ starter Jered Weaver, a guy who is usually very effective at home. I personally did jump on the Angels on the overnights, feeling confident that the line would move in LA’s direction. But I may hedge out of my personal bet on this game if the line creeps much higher.
The Angels’ lineup is not currently as strong as I like it to be when betting a team as this big of a favorite. The potential is there, but as of right now, things are not clicking terribly well. Chone Figgins and Howie Kendrick need to get into their respective grooves, and the power guys need to start putting it together at the same time. Now that Vlad Guerrero and Gary Matthews are starting to come alive, the other big bats are suddenly slumping.
Still, this is a tough spot for the Mets and for their starter Mike Pelfrey as well who has been throwing much better of late, but may be in for a downturn starting here. I think the value that existed with the opening lines is gone, but if the line moves much higher, it will appear on the side of the Mets. I doubt however, that it will move much at this point.
MARQUEE MATCHUP FOR MONDAY: VERLANDER AND LINCECUM
This is a marquee matchup that is drawing a lot of attention. However, while Giants’ starter Tim Lincecum is in the midst of a Cy Young-contending season, Detroit starter Justin Verlander is going mostly on reputation.
Verlander, though, has not pitched as poorly as his stat lines would suggest. He did have a handful of bad starts at the beginning of the year, and then a handful of unlucky starts, and that is what produced the statistical ugliness that characterizes his numbers to date for 2008.
But his velocity was always good, and for the most part his command and pitches were working. It seemed like it was only a matter of time before he would start to pitch much better, and that does appear to be happening right now. Verlander has had a very good first half of June, and that is likely to continue for the rest of the month, possibly even the rest of the season.
Now, betting on Verlander, it is true, has not been a pleasant experience so far in 2008. Out of 226 starters in 2008, Verlander ranks 226th in money won or lost on betting his starts. That’s right, there is not a single pitcher in the majors as of now you would have lost more money betting blindly on than Verlander. But that is partially due to his big rep causing him to have inflated lines, and partially due to the Tigers in general being an underachieving team this year. In this spot, at close to even money against the mediocre Giants, it may be a different story for Verlander value-wise.
Game Time: 06/16/2008 08:05 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com
The Braves are 9-25 on the road, and their pitching is a major concern with Jurrjens nursing a bad finger and the bullpen a question mark. Take Colorado at home.
The Atlanta Braves just took two out of three games in Anaheim vs. the Angels, but we look for their road struggles to return when they visit the Colorado Rockies tonight.
Even with that winning series, the Braves are still just 9-25 on the road this season, including a three-game series sweep by the Rockies here in April. Furthermore, Atlanta starter Jair Jurrjens has been bothered by a troublesome finger that has no doubt contributed to his 8.40 ERA and 2.53 WHIP in his last three starts. If Jurrjens does not regain his form in the altitude tonight, the Atlanta bullpen has also been in disarray since John Smoltz was lost for the season, especially with his closer replacement Rafael Soriano currently on the Disabled List.
The Rockies have had a disappointing season after overachieving on their way to the World Series last year, but they must be feeling better about themselves after winning the last two games in Chicago vs. the White Sox. Their starter Ubaldo Jimenez has pitched much better lately after an atrocious start, as he has a 3.50 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in his last three outings. The Colorado bullpen is also slowly returning to its excellent form of last year, as the Rockies have now risen to the top half of the National League in bullpen ERA at 3.72, which ranks them seventh in the NL.
Taken back further, the Rockies are 7-2 in their last nine head-to-head meetings with the Braves in Colorado, and we look for them to build on that tonight.
Game Time: 06/16/2008 10:15 PM -
By: Scott Spreitzer | sportspic.com
With the Tigers having never faced Tim Lincecum and the Giants having trouble scoring against anyone, tonight's Detroit, San Francisco game remains under.
I'm playing the Under in the Detroit Tigers/San Francisco Giants game at AT&T Park on Monday.
You watched San Francisco play low scoring games with Oakland in their last two night games on this field (5-1 and 4-0). Neither of those games featured a starting pitching matchup like Justin Verlander vs. Tim Lincecum. The latter has an ERA of 1.97 this season, with a very strong WHIP of 1.19. He's also struck out 88 hitters in 86.2 innings. The Tigers haven't seen him before, and they'll be flying in across time zones without a day off. Lotsa' luck hitting Lincecum!
Verlander has found his form lately. After a shaky start, he's posted an ERA of 2.57 in his last six outings. It's the old Verlander in other words. San Francisco's poor offense will be seriously outmatched.
Note that game time temperatures will be very cool as well. That will make things even tougher for the hitters. This has all the signs of a 2-1 or 3-2 type pitchers duel. Oddsmakers have done a very poor job of posting totals on that kind of game this season, particularly at night in cool temperatures. The Under in the Tigers/Giants game is the play.
Game Time: 06/16/2008 10:10 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com
It's the longest road trip a team can make in the big leagues, Miami to Seattle, and the Florida Marlins didn't come all this way to drop games to the impotent Mariners.
Our Monday night MLB selection is on the Florida Marlins on the road over the Seattle Mariners.
The Marlins travel to the Great Northwest, the longest roadtrip possible for any major meague team, to play the Mariners and try to keep their improbable run going. Florida is still well above .500 at 37-32 and they are only three games behind the first place Phillies in the National League East Division.
These two teams haven't met since 2005 when they played a three-game series in South Florida and none of the three Florida starters in that series (Brian Moehler, Dontrelle Willis and Josh Beckett) are still with the team.
Left-hander Andrew Miller came over from the Tigers in the deal that sent Willis and Miguel Cabrera to Detroit and although inconsistent, Miller is beginning to look like he might start paying some major dividends in the not-too-distant future. Miller's last start was a gem at home against the division-leading Phils in which he gave up only one run on four hits while striking out seven en route to a big 6-2 win.
The same cannot be said of Seattle veteran right-handed starter Carlos Silva who, despite still being one of the best control pitchers in baseball, seems to have found too much of the plate lately as many of his recent outings have unfortunately resembled batting practice. The Mariners have lost the last five Silva starts and seven of his last eight. Take the Marlins.
Game Time: 06/16/2008 10:05 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com
With all the talk about manager Willie Randolph, the Mets can't be too focused on the games at hand right now. Back Jered Weaver and the Angels at home against New York.
The Halos host the New York Mets in the first of a three-game interleague series when they send Jered Weaver to the hill against Mike Pelfrey in a matchup of two pitchers with opposite home/road dichotomies.
That's confirmed by the fact that Weaver's home ERA of 3.05 is nearly three runs per game better than his 5.98 road ERA this season. On the flip side Pelfrey's 7.20 ERA on the road is more than four runs per game worse than his 3.06 ERA. With the Halos 10-5 in Weaver's last 15 starts in Anaheim, and 7-2 in his career team starts in June, we'll back the Angels here this evening.
Game Time: 06/16/2008 10:15 PM -
By: Dave Cokin | playbook.com
This one spits in the face of the current streaks both teams are on, but San Francisco's Tim Lincecum is the play tonight when the Giants host Justin Verlander and the Detroit Tigers.
The Detroit Tigers are finally hot and the San Francisco Giants are definitely not as these two teams meet on the West Coast to open a three-game interleague series.
On the mound, Detroit's Justin Verlander has lost all five of his road starts, and even though he's been better lately I'm still not seeing the velocity that was there last season for the Tigers' ace. And of course, there's his opposite number here, Tim Lincecum, who has been spectacular all year for the Giants. No one on the Tigers has seen that deceptive pinwheel deliver of Lincecum's before, and that's another edge for the SF sensation.
I hate bucking both team streaks, but I've got to side with Lincecum to pitch the Giants to the win.
Game Time: 06/16/2008 10:05 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com
Michael Pelfrey of the Mets has come around nicely, posting a 1.74 ERA in his last three starts, while the inconsistent Jered Weaver has a 5.50 ERA in the same span. Take the value with the Mets.
Michael Pelfrey of the New York Mets may be just 2-6 on the year while Jered Weaver is 6-6, but it is Pelfrey that has the better current form of these two starters.
Pelfrey has reeled off three straight Quality Starts, posting a sparkling 1.71 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 21 innings in the process. The last time he pitched on the road, he allowed one run in eight innings in San Diego, and he is now facing an Angels lineup that has been a disappointment lately, averaging just 3.80 runs per game while batting a mediocre .255 as a team over the last 10 games.
Weaver has been erratic for the Angels, looking unhittable at times but simply brutal at other times. He has allowed double-digit hit totals in two of his last three starts while posting a 5.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over those outings, and his inconsistency makes him a dicey proposition laying this much juice.
It seems that the Mets have all the value here given the current form of tonight’s hurlers.
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